Against All The Odds

Round 9

2011-04-08T19:27:00.003+01:00

Unfortunately, I haven't had time to place together my thoughts for this evening's games so I need to resort to listing them in sentence form!

Huddersfield v Warrington. Disagree with the market prices who look to have not factored in home advantage but I do fancy Warrington to sneak home and exact revenge for their first week loss.

Wigan v Catalans. A "justified" 1.1 shot but like last week, there's only one backable team.

Crusaders v St Helens. A fair price all things considered but Crusaders must be the option at the current odds.

Hull v Bradford. A scizophrenic side against a mediocre one. Anything could happen here so probably best to stay away.

Round 8

2011-03-31T22:52:00.001+01:00

Last week I all but said that I expected my fortunes to take a downturn and it takes an excellent judge to be able to predict when they are wrong so I can at least take solace from that.

This week appears even harder to review and so I expect this to be the shortest preview yet.

The Friday night game on SKY is Wigan at Leeds and currently sees the visitors trading in the low 1.7s a price which appears fair. Leeds have been nothing short of poor this season and were incredibly unconvincing last week against Wakefield. However, they do remain a side which on paper, is capable of excellent results. One day, it will all click and they will produce the dominant performance they can do. Will it be against a Wigan side who will be desperate to avoid successive defeats. Well, it could be although it would be surprising. As with any SKY game, the value will come in play.

The other Friday night games see Castleford travel to Hull FC and Hull KR travel to St Helens. Hull FC showed their true schizophrenic powers at the weekend when they held a four point lead over Harlequins, conceded three straight tries in seven minutes before scoring four tries in the last fifteen minutes to win. It will surprise no-one then that I have no interest in a game where the market is fairly close.

The other game, Saints v Hull KR, screams out to be a game that I should be interested in. The home side on a good run of form against an away side who have been woeful recently. An over enthusiastic market then drives the price of the home side down too low. However, my stomach isn’t interested in this although my head is. Maybe a small back of the away side might be in order but it isn’t a game that I am overly confident on.

Saturday night sees more of the same when Salford host Crusaders. An in form home side against an away side out of sorts although again, I have reservations. This one is easier to explain in that Crusaders demolished Salford in Round 1. That is therefore more likely to act as a barrier against complacency for the home side and as a roadblock to the market driving the price down irrationally; even moreso when considering that these are two sides who aren’t regularly featured on SKY. Still, the pre match value does lie with Crusaders but I expect the biggest value to emerge in play.

Sunday sees two expected walkovers and a stroll in the park. Will it be that simple?

Warrington v Catalans reminds me of one of my earliest oppositions to home favourites when in 2009 the home side traded as low as 1.06 against Catalans before losing. The fact that 1.06 is likely to be the starting point for this game best illustrates the direction the two teams have gone in since. Certainly, that 1.06 was more valuable than this 1.06, but at 1.06, there can only be one side that can be backed.

Huddersfield v Wakefield is likely to be another 1.0 starting price and whilst the away side is unquestionably where the best value lies, the prices do reflect the talent available to both sides. Wakefield have performed admirably against Warrington, Hull and Leeds in recent weeks but I do wonder whether they may just fail to reach that level of performance this time around. However, there is still only one option available.

The other game on Sunday is where my strongest feeling lies but even that, for my standards, is ten parts water to one part juice. Harlequins are coming off a thrashing by Warrington and a capitulation against Hull whilst Bradford are also haven’t been in the best form recently. However, the Yorkshire side are in the 1.3s which is definitely a price driven by home advantage rather than anything else.

Despite Harlequins recent poor performances, they have shown enough that they are a side at or around the level of Bradford and whilst the Bulls won’t be easing off just yet, they are significantly shorter than the price they should be. I therefore do expect Bradford to win, but I would not expect them to win with the regularity that the market does.

However, that is the issue. All these games are played one time and one time only and anything can, and usually does, happen.

Round 7

2011-03-25T00:31:00.001Z

Looking back on last week’s predictions were a real eye opener as it seemed that everything fell into place; with nearly all of my original thoughts being correct including predicting a Wakefield victory despite the Wildcats starting the game in double figures! One day I might grow the fortitude to trust my instincts (and remove the painful splinters from my bottom). Of course however, much of my success is down to randomness so I fully expect to have a couple of weeks where I get everything wrong; much like how I sometimes rate a team higher after a defeat than a victory. So without wanting to get everything wrong, let’s quickly look to this week’s games.

The big game of the week is the Friday night televised game between Wigan and Warrington which sees the two best sides in the competition go head to head. Usually in such games, my feelings towards home advantage automatically sways me to the visiting side, but yet again it seems that, contrary to history, the market is underrating Wigan significantly.

Let me make it clear, the best value should be found in play but I cannot understand why the reigning champions who have been very good this season should only be 1.75 favourites. Whilst they are missing some regular players, they have shown the strength in depth to cope with all but the worst injury crisis, and their opponents should not be over-estimated based upon a thrashing of an average side.

It certainly looks like the market is overreacting to Warrington’s impressive scoreline last week but once the match starts, that counts for nothing.

The other Friday night game sees St Helens host Bradford and Mick Potter return to his former club. I have been underwhelmed by Bradford this year whilst St Helens looked a different side last week once they fielded a 13 man team. The market therefore looks right for this game but if I had to choose, I would prefer the potential reward of the underdogs.

That is also true in the Saturday night game in France where Catalans are 1.4 to defeat a Salford side coming off an impressive victory last week. I’m not ready to buy into Catalans just yet and whilst their recent performances have been more impressive than I anticipated, I would not treat them as sub 1.5 favourites for any game.

The televised Saturday game sees two sides who lost as 1.5 favourites last week when Huddersfield travel to Hull KR. My gut feeling is that Huddersfield, at 1.6, are too short. That said, it is hard for me to piece together a convincing reason to back Hull KR. The best I could possibly do is to expect the Robins to look to kick start their season in front of the Sky cameras with a home crowd desperate for their side to live upto the hype but that is a weak argument!

Moving onto Sunday and Leeds v Wakefield looks to be appropriately priced. Whilst Wakefield are coming off a victory, Leeds impressed last week and are significantly the more talented side. Given Wakefield’s young squad, I expect two victories to be too much to string together.

The most intriguing game is Hull travelling to Harlequins in a game where I’d almost favour both sides to lose. Harlequins started the season very well but were woeful when losing 82 – 6 last week whilst Hull have only one victory all season and lost at home to Wakefield last week.

There is no doubting that Hull are the more talented side, significantly so on paper. However, they look to be in free fall whereas Harlequins’ loss was more likely to be a blip and a result of an average squad simply having little more to give. I therefore cannot agree with Hull being favourites, although given the potential variance in Hull’s performance level, whether Harlequins’ price is worthy of constituting value is questionable.

The final game on Sunday is Castleford hosting the Crusaders. I mentioned last week of Castleford possibly doing a Hull and if the Crusaders can produce their form from Round 1, they do have the ability to secure a shock victory. That said, the current odds look about right although like Saints v Bradford, if I had to choose, it wouldn’t take long to decide.

Round 6

2011-03-17T22:42:00.001Z

After Friday night, we will be thirty eight games into the one hundred and eighty nine games scheduled to be played this season. With time flying by so quickly, I am determined to make these previews more and more concise. (Removing the second more would be a good start.)

There won’t be very many laughably priced games left at this rate. Certainly few as daft as Harlequins’ starting price of 7/1 against St Helens last week.

Friday’s night game is another that I will miss although this one is much more like Warrington v St Helens than Huddersfield v Harlequins. In other words, I disagree with the odds. At the start of the week, Huddersfield could be backed (or in my case, laid(!)) at around 2.0. However, following the suspension of the Tomkins brothers, the Giants are edging towards 1.5.

It is a difficult game to predict because Wigan are missing Sam Tomkins, Martin Gleeson, Pat Richards, Paul Deacon, Brett Finch, Stuart Fielden, Eammon O’Carroll and Joel Tomkins. Especially important is the loss of Tomkins, Deacon and Finch who are undoubtedly three of their most important creative players.

Meanwhile, for two years Huddersfield have slowly ascended into the top class of clubs although their success has been built more on consistency than creativity although the Danny Brough and Kevin Brown partnership is developing into a very good one.

However, I believe Wigan to be the better side and therefore I would make them favourites. Now, with the Tomkins’ suspensions and the lack of halfbacks, it is understandable the market would look to back a Huddersfield side coming off an impressive win but at a price nearing 1.5?

I’d be most confident that this game won’t produce many points, but I would look to favour Wigan who boast a terrific away record and a strong consistency and who have their backs up against the wall. However, whoever wins won’t shock me but at the current prices, there looks to be value with the Lancashire side.

There are three non televised games to accompany the main event and I don’t have much to say on two of them. Catalans and Crusaders are the two sides I feel least confident on and therefore I can’t find any value in this market whilst Salford v Hull KR looks to be priced correctly, although I remain expectant that Salford could, at some point this season, develop into the Top 8 side I thought I saw pre-season and at odds over 3, they do look the better value.

The other game in action this weekend is Hull FC v Wakefield. Likely to be priced in the 1.0s, I fancy Wakefield to win this. From watching last week’s game, Wakefield, whilst extremely limited in attack, showed exceptional character and a solid defence. Meanwhile, despite running Wigan close last week, Hull remain very much the schizophrenic side. Capable of brilliance or disaster and with no middle ground.

This is the type of game Wakefield can win. Now, as with any 1.0 shot, the price is there for a reason. However, returning to the club that he coached to Challenge Cup success, I believe John Kear can motivate his side to a shock victory which could see the end of Richard Agar’s reign in Hull.

On Wednesday this week, I would have made Leeds massive favourites for their mouth-watering tie against St Helens. The latter appeared very much to be a club in meltdown, insistent on allowing sides to play against them with a man advantage. Then however, something has happened to make departing Scrum Half Kyle Eastmond suspended for “Serious Misconduct”. Several will tell you this should be for a series of effortless displays which have to be seen to be believed, but apparently it may relate to the only action he has performed this year, which was giving an alleged V to fans who had the audacity to boo his performance although other darker rumours continue to circle in the background.

With that, I believe St Helens can win. From a market’s point of view, the loss of Eastmond is a blow as he is a central player. However, Eastmond’s sheer lack of effort and the likely increase to team morale that will form as the club bonds together in adversity act as positive factors in my view.

Whilst, as with any SKY game, the biggest value is likely to develop in play, I again have a fairly strong belief in the underdog away side.

Turning to Sunday and again Harlequins look likely to be massive underdogs away to a Lancashire side although given Warrington’s form, the price is more understandable. Surely lightning cannot strike for a third time although again, there is only one price that can constitute any value.

The other game on Sunday is, in my belief, the perfect example of too much being read into one game and an over reliance on form.

Castleford Tigers, who were as long as 1.55 to beat Catalans at home last week are now as short as 1.8 to beat Bradford away from home and given the importance that the markets place on home field advantage, that is an absurdity.

As it is, I do struggle to find massive value in this game due to the fact that I underrate Bradford in accordance to the market so far whilst I have overrated Castleford. Maybe the market is coming round to my way of thinking but maybe, Castleford could end up like Hull last year.

A fast starting side who the market initially views with contempt before jumping in and staying in bed with the side even as they produce woeful performances which belie their early season form.

I believe Castleford are too good to fall into such a situation but it is worth keeping an eye out for.

Back to the game, and I agree that this is one that looks too close to call and one that I can’t see any massive value in. However, here’s hoping to some value being found during the games.

Round 5

2011-03-10T23:11:00.001Z

I imagine this will be without doubt my shortest work, as this week of Rugby League action looks, on paper, to be one of the most uninspiring that we have been treated to in a while. Although it may just be that any optimism has been dulled by one of my worst weeks trading wise last week which saw a 1.04 reversal in the annual Varsity match last year stick in my mind unduly despite there being an enormous gulf in quality between the two sides. An alcohol strengthened blind judgement call which turned out to be erroneous and a malfunctioning phone which contributed to not leaving a market at the appropriate time.

The total cost was less than my earnings in the World Club Challenge, but being someone who looks to draw arbitrary distinctions on a monthly basis, it wasn’t the best start.

Friday’s three games look set to see the favourites all set off at below 1.2 and the biggest gulf looks set to be in the televised game where Warrington travel to Wakefield. It seems almost absurd that Wakefield were 1.6 home favourites just two weeks ago. However, Warrington look in danger of being hugely overrated if they do set off at the 1.0 price that current looks probable although Warrington are undeniably clear favourites.

Wakefield do have a reputation however for raising their game when it matters and I have to say I actually expect them to produce a competitive performance against a Warrington side which is without Brett Hodgson and Adrian Morley. Still, it is very hard to see Warrington trailing at the final hooter, although I know who I’d rather be backing at the current prices.

But if you merely wanted value, look no further than the sheer absurdity of the price in the St Helens Harlequins game. Now, Harlequins’ bubble may have burst last week with their defeat to Huddersfield but they have proved that they are a competent side. Meanwhile, St Helens look to be a side whose best days have passed and have a lengthy injury list including key creators Leon Pryce and Jon Wilkin and have strong doubts over prop forwards Josh Perry and Louie McCarthy Scarsbrook. Throw in an uninterested Kyle Eastmond and a rookie stand off, and the price of 1.2 looks one that would have been calculated Pre Season and not one that reflects the ability of the teams.

Harlequins have managed one shock victory this year and it is said that lightning doesn’t strike twice. Maybe not, but this price sure looks indefensible.

The other Friday night game sees Leeds host Salford. The Rhinos go into the game with no recognised prop forwards and an injury list as long as most people’s shopping lists. Salford are no mugs and are capable of a victory, their recent performances have not displayed their potential, but you would think that Leeds’ massive desire for a win and a better performance after a lukewarm start under coach Brian McDermott should see them home, but the value would appear to lie with the visitors.

Saturday’s televised game looks set to be overshadowed by an irrelevant competition called the Six Nations which you may have heard about. Castleford have had a great start to the season and do look too long at 1.4 against a Catalans side that are yet to display any of their traditional flair but one could question whether Castleford could sub-consciously ease off. However, the key for this game is to get a second opinion on Scott Dureau, the Catalans halfback who looked dire against Harlequins in the season opener. A team can only go as far as their halfbacks will take them and Dureau’s performance could indicate how the Catalans will fare until Thomas Bosc returns.

Amazingly, Sunday also sees a further three games with very strong home favourites.

Wigan host Hull and whilst Hull are coming off an impressive display last week, it is hard to see Hull gaining something from the match. Certainly, 1.25 looks as fair a home favourite price but the more this slips, the more the value edges towards a Hull side who, on their day, could compete with any side in Super League.

Huddersfield host Bradford and again, their starting price of around 1.4 looks fair although this may be due to the fact that I seemingly have Bradford rated far, far lower than anyone else which is something to factor into any equations. Certainly, Bradford are far from no hopers but I don’t see value screaming out to me at the current prices.

Lastly, Super League looks set to welcome Willie Mason as Hull KR host Crusaders. I’ve wrote previously that I haven’t been able to get a hold on Crusaders but with Michael Dobson missing for the hosts, this match looks to have the most value for away backers. You would expect that the frenzy created through Mason’s introduction should see the Robins home, but they still need to create the tries and if the price is in the 1.1s, I would be very careful as the Crusaders have shown this year that they can score points.

After a bad week, the tendency is to go conservative and there are very few high value opportunities this week. However, if you put your head away totally you miss everything, and I would be more surprised if there was not two games that go against the grain this weekend. Which two? Well, if you know, please let me know!

Round 4

2011-03-03T21:57:00.000Z

It’s fair to say that the next few weeks of the season can offer the highest risk / reward of the year. With most teams now having been televised twice, and three games played for all teams but Castleford, most have been able to build fairly solid opinions of all teams.

However, in my opinion such opinions can be prematurely formed and can occasionally not be fully reflective of a team’s abilities but rather an indicator of form although it can be very difficult in separating the two.

The Friday night SKY game is the prime example of this where Harlequins host Huddersfield and a fairly significant amount of money was matched in the mid 1.6s before the price crashed to below 1.5 and it is a game which I would struggle to price up.

At the start of the season, Harlequins looked like being one of the weakest teams in the competition; devoid of strength, skill and speed. However, coach Rob Powell has the Quins playing out of their skins, with victories over Catalans, Crusaders and Leeds this season. Meanwhile, Huddersfield have not been particularly impressive and since their opening victory, have appeared to be rather overrated considering starting prices.

I am not sold on Quins however who appear to be a side playing to their maximum rather than turning out to be a significantly better team than advertised. That said, I do think that Huddersfield appear significantly on the short side at below 1.5 although as per usual with SKY games, I would expect the biggest value to show itself in play, even if this is another game which I will miss.

Another game on Friday night sees Hull FC take on Crusaders. Hull are the only side to have not won this season and they have carried on their awful 2010 end of season form. I say form, but I strongly believe that Hull are an incredibly overrated side who appear to be poorly coached. I had Hull rated significantly below their average prediction and the current price in the 1.4s appears incorrect.

However, I have not been able to get a handle on Crusaders. Last year, I continued to hold a belief that they were a woeful side even as they scraped a playoff place. Being a side largely made up from Australians, I may have difficulty in establishing their baseline but having seen them twice this year, I have been suitably impressed. More so in Cardiff than in Wrexham but they look a team capable of scoring frequently.

That is in direct contradiction to Hull who, especially with Sean Long out, look stifled for creativity and lack that little bit of magic out wide. I would not be surprised if Hull win. They should be favourites, and they could canter home but it’s fair to say that I far from agree with the starting price.

The other Friday night game sees Wigan travel to Salford. The Warriors will surely be extra keen to rebound from their WCC defeat whilst Salford will play hosts without their top two coaches, with Assistant Phil Veivers in Australia and Head Coach Shaun McRae having been placed on a month’s leave due to an unspecified illness. Whilst you could usually look to expect a club to pull together in such circumstances, the ability and professionalism of Wigan should see them through although my thoughts on low odds are well known.

Saturday night sees Warrington host Leeds Rhinos on SKY in what could be a cracker. As with any SKY games, the main value will lie in play and this is a difficult game to call. Whilst I feel safe with describing Warrington as a top team, Leeds have been incredibly poor this season. Whilst they have missed key players in Danny McGuire and Jamie Peacock, it has been the basics that they have struggled with.

However, I can imagine that the Rhinos will be extra fired up to set things straight and kick start their season. So whilst the current prices would look to favour Warrington on paper, I could easily see the Rhinos coming out all guns firing and securing what would be a surprise victory.

The other Saturday game sees St Helens travel to Catalans where, hopefully, they can leave Kyle Eastmond – sans passport. Eastmond’s performance against Warrington may have been one of the worst I have ever seen in Super League – certainly the worst if you were comparing ability against performance. Whilst nearly all Saints fans wanted to release Eastmond immediately, one can only hope that with the news now being made public, Eastmond can produce a performance like he actually wants to play. That said, with Saints set to recall Leon Pryce, they should be able to defeat a Catalans side who produced an excellent victory last week but, unless Scott Dureau is capable of replicating Michael Dobson’s impact on the French outfit, should continue to struggle for the majority of the season.

On Sunday, Bradford host Wakefield and the Wildcats return to being heavy outsiders from the favourites they were last week en route to a 32-6 mauling from Salford. Wakefield will struggle this year, but coach John Kear is at his best with his back against the wall, and Wakefield’s young side are capable of springing the odd surprise this year. Therefore, if they continue to be heavy outsiders, there will certainly have been worse shouts this year. Especially as Bradford are yet to impress this year and with their first choice halfbacks out injured, may lack for organisation and creativity.

The other Sunday game sees Castleford take on Hull KR and sees a price which baffles me.

The Tigers have been excellent this season although one may wonder how their week’s break will impact any momentum they had built up. Meanwhile, Hull KR are without their key player in Michael Dobson and also have Jake Webster suspended. I expected the Tigers to be around 1.5, especially given the “home advantage” but bizarrely, the initial prices see the bookmakers unable to separate the two clubs.

I have been higher on Castleford than most this season and it would not shock me if the Tigers did lose, especially given my thoughts on home advantage. However, from an odds point of view, the price appears staggering especially when Hull KR are without their key player who for the past two seasons, has been their dominant controlling force. It is just such a rarity that I consider a home side to have been overpriced; usually I can’t even agree any home price!

A quick note as well that National League rugby returns to SKY next Thursday which sees an additional televised game per week which can be traded. Hopefully this will be competitive than the one sided Varsity match that was televised tonight which again resulted in a maximum loss. Maybe last year’s memory of a 16-0 turnaround stayed strong! However, the gulf between the two sides was as large as any that I can recall seeing and Oxford eased home to victory so comprehensively, that even the largest handicap was traded at 1.01 after 25 minutes!

Super League - Round 3

2011-02-24T23:56:00.001Z

Another week has passed without a blog post; the truth is that finding time is proving as difficult as finding something to write about!

However, it’s Thursday evening and so it is time to look ahead to the upcoming Super League weekend, although time dictates that this post should be sort, not even by my standards but by general standards.

A quick word on last week which proved to be the exact opposite of the first weekend, and my trading was pretty woeful. On the Friday night game, I found myself struggling to find an opening until the 1.1 rule was deployed. The problem I have always had with this approach is finding the right point to trade out. At first, I would trade out in the mid 1.1s, which would give me a very small green and proved highly aggravating when a comeback was completed, so I switched to letting it run – which proved highly aggravating when a comeback wasn’t completed.

However, as the whole purpose of the trade is to find value, I have decided to trust my judgement on when to trade out, although the size of the potential green is still ensuring that I take a medium approach to risk.

In this game, the opportunity never realised itself. Now, Hull are without doubt a side who are woefully underperforming and who are poorly coached. However, on the back of some 50/50 calls going against them and with Leeds down to one substitute, I always felt that with just one or two bounces of the ball, they could mount a serious comeback. Sadly, that never quite happened – leaving me with a maximum loss which was quite frustrating as the opportunity had been there briefly to take a reasonable profit. As someone who tends to be risk averse, the loss in the profit was felt more than the no score draw on the net scoreboard.

As a result, I then traded the Castleford Huddersfield game rather more conservatively and backed out of my initial bullish opinion to a more moderate one. In fact, I owed more of my profit to a crazy first half draw price than to my pre-match thoughts. It is wise not to overcommit before a SKY game as opportunities do present themselves during the game, but when you do have an opinion, you should look to utilise it.

Onto this week and the televised game on Friday is between St Helens and Warrington and despite this being not only an excellent game and myself being a Saints fan, this is one game that I am set to miss which is more than a bit gutting.

Usually, I prefer to look for value in play but that will be quite hard. However, the market has been extremely generous in giving me a pre play value.

I’ve discussed my main reasons for this on the Betfair forum, but suffice to say I had expected St Helens to start around 1.8 – their current price of 1.5 is one that baffles me. I won’t go over old ground, but I will say that this appears to be an overreaction based upon results and form, not ability, and a nod to “Home advantage”.

My view, on a very basic level, is that Warrington are the better side and therefore Warrington should win. Now, I won’t be shocked if Saints win and I wouldn’t look to overly commit before you see how the game is playing out, but 1.5 is a price which looks to be too low, massively too low although usually the best value can be found during the game.

The other two SKY games this week look to be fairly even games and I definitely will be waiting to see how they evolve before taking a position; with Sunday’s World Club Challenge especially true of the above comment – you really need to see how the Australians are treating the game.

That leaves us with four non televised games this week, and all games seem to produce a potential opening.

Leeds v Harlequins will see the home side start in the 1.1s. As a general rule, that is too low a price. Now, Harlequins’ good form should come to an end soon and they are a very limited side. However, Leeds have not been producing superb displays this year and whilst they are strong favourites, their current price is much too short for my liking. The Wildcard in all this is that Leeds’ coach is Harlequins’ former coach and their coach is the former assistant so both sides will know each other well. So whilst I’m not sure Harlequins are great value, if I had to choose one, it wouldn’t take me any time to answer.

The same approach should therefore be taken in Hull KR v Catalans. Now, whilst I have said I don’t take much stock in form, I do take stock in performance and Catalans’ two games this year have shown a real dearth of talent at halfback which is the most crucial position in Rugby League. Now, I am not convinced that is a large enough sample to write Scott Dureau off, but the Australian quickly needs to considerably up his performance levels. Meanwhile, Hull KR have impressed so far this season and in Blake Green, look to have a creative outlet to support Michael Dobson. Still, a price in the 1.1s should practically never be backed in Rugby League.

Huddersfield v Hull FC is another similar game where the home side do look too short. However, both sides are coming off disappointing results which can look to improve a team’s focus and so Huddersfield should be able to guard against complacency and ease home. 1.3 should be too short for Huddersfield given Hull’s natural skill levels, but they have so far shown nothing this season to suggest that they should challenge Huddersfield. However, again, I feel that Hull would be the better value here, although I won’t be running to back them.

Finally, we have last week’s 1.1 winners, Wakefield, hosting Salford. And Wakefield are currently trading in the 1.5s. This reminds me of a series of games in 2009 where Bradford hosted Harlequins at home and were around 1.3 to win. They lost. The very next weekend the game was played at Harlequins, and the Quins were the favourites. They lost.

One result does not necessarily make a team any more or less likely to win the next game. It can show indicators of why a team may win, it may even help to improve confidence but it should not produce the swing that it does.

A quick look at Wakefield’s squad listings show several young players who do not have the talent to consistently play at this level. Yes, they do have the ability to win and yes they do have a coach who is excellent in the underdog situation and historically gets his team off to a good start. However, when the whistle is blown, it comes down to the 17 individuals taking part in thousands of random events and whilst anything can happen which is why the underdogs are usually a good blind position, more often than not, it is talent that shines through.

As for Salford, they have been dreadful this season, conceding 96 points. However, it is too soon to tell whether this is as the coach does not have the dressing room (which would be a massive factor) or whether they have just had two bad games, which can happen.

On paper, Salford are the far better team and therefore I would make them favourites although the wildcard of Wakefield’s new owners and an expected bumper crowd would usually make this game one worth avoiding. However, if Wakefield can be laid in the region of 1.5, then that is a price which screams overreaction and usually, that is where money can be made.

So there are my quick thoughts on the upcoming weekend of rugby league. As always, there’s a chance I could be totally wrong, and I would not be surprised, but if you throw enough mud, sometimes something can stick.

Overreactions

2011-02-17T21:38:00.001Z

Something I have noted over the past three seasons of trading Rugby League is a tendency to overreact. Be it from a try, a penalty, a refereeing decision or a run of form, a blind opposer of the market would be in a pretty healthy position I suspect.

For me, that is what makes Rugby League so tradable and there are few greater examples than the second week of a season where prices more than ever are set by the performance of the team on opening weekend. The fact is however, performance in the last match is often a factor which I negatively rate. No side can perform at 100% every week and with alarming regularity, a team can mentally ease off after a great performance or find an extra 5% after a poor performance. Of course, that is not always the case – every event is dependant upon thousands of random stand alone events.

After last weekend, I immediately noted that I would look for Salford as a potential proponent of the above theory but the odds haven’t quite gone as expected. The City Reds were highly rated going into the season and considering Saints’ dire performance for 65 minutes at Millennium Magic, the Reds are available at around 4. A price which I consider fair and not offering too much value either way.

However, there is most definitely a candidate if you look hard enough. Going into the season, many people believed Huddersfield could take the next step and they delivered in Round 1, defeating a highly rated Warrington side.

However, I am very surprised to see them below 1.5 when they travel to Castleford Tigers at the weekend. Home advantage is usually a concept I look to oppose but in this case, it feels like the market has forgotten who the home team is.

Now, I have Castleford rated much higher than most and have them solidly as the 7th best squad in the competition and whilst the first performance is never conclusive, it can help to affirm or reject some initial thoughts about how a team could perform and I believe Castleford’s performance strongly affirmed my key thought on them. That being the addition of Danny Orr will sufficiently free up Rangi Chase to enable the halfback to return to his form from 2009 when he was one of the best players in the competition.

Obviously, in Super League anything can happen and with this game being televised, it is quite likely that the best value will be found in play. Huddersfield do remain the better side on paper as well so a Giants victory would not be a shock, but at 1.5, this is a price which I find utterly incomprehensible.

As for the remaining games this weekend, Hull v Leeds is the Friday night televised game and as per usual, I won’t look to take a position until the game kicks off. Hull have one of the greatest ranges in performance ability and it would be unwise to take a view until you see how they approach the game.

Alongside the Saturday night televised game is Catalans v Wakefield and this has the potential to cause an upset. Wakefield’s administration saga, which included rumours of the entire squad being made redundant, appears to be over and they are facing a side who against Harlequins, looked likely to never score. Of course, Wakefield’s squad however is severely depleted and they are understandable heavy outsiders. However, unless Scott Dureau can produce a considerably better performance, the Wildcats could be celebrating a most unlikely victory and if the price does drop to around 1.1, then that would be a position well worth taking.

Sunday sees three games with Harlequins v Crusaders looking to be a potentially even game. Having only one performance to consider is insufficient to form an opinion on either side and so this is one to avoid – although the Crusaders did look the better team last week.

Bradford v Wigan has the potential for an upset if the Warriors were to divert their eyes towards next week’s World Club Challenge. However, their capitulation against Saints last week should result in a more determined focus for this week’s game whilst it is difficult to see Bradford repeating their mammoth effort from last week although the sour taste that will exist from their late defeat could serve as sufficiently strong motivation; especially if the crowd can get behind them.

The final game of the weekend is Warrington v Hull KR where overreaction seems to be setting in slightly following Warrington’s injuries and generally lacklustre performance from Millennium Magic. However, even at 1.5, I don’t see sufficient upside to back the home team, although it does rule out Hull KR as having potential value.

Therefore, it appears another weekend where the best course of action is to follow the games and look for further trends in teams’ performances. There is no Leeds v Castleford or Warrington v Catalans this time. At least, not one that is obvious yet…

Returning to Action

2011-02-12T22:29:00.000Z

When I commented on the need to be bold and consistent in trading yesterday, I did not expect it to be tested so early on in the season as it was following St Helens’ stunning comeback against Wigan to cap an excellent first day of the Rugby League season.

At 16-0 down, I had developed a very green position on both St Helens and the draw – at the maximum my green was showing four figures for a very small liability on Wigan. However, this was very much an unintended position. Unintended in so far as I was not entering the trades with a view of Saints making a miraculous come back but rather looking to trade the market to keep building profits.

Now I am a firm proponent that anything can happen in Rugby League, and St Helens have more form in this area than any other side in Super League. However, that form is based on the magic of Sean Long, the incision of Paul Sculthorpe, the brilliance of Jamie Lyon and the endeavour of Keiron Cunningham. However, with all those players having departed the fact was that St Helens looked dreadful and even at 1.02, Wigan looked to be good value given the proceedings of the previous 60 minutes.

Therefore, I did not keep the green solely on St Helens but rather kept trading building small gains whilst keeping the green relatively level. Obviously, the game ended as a draw and my profit, whilst still pleasant, was nowhere near as large as it could have been.

However, I believe it to have been Green All Over who said it best when discussing 1.01 and value in his Goal Famine post. A price is and can never be value in isolation. Therefore, despite being Mr Hindsight at the best of times, I am more than happy with the approach I adopted and even happier with the results – for once I feel ahead of the net scoreboard.

In all the games that I traded today as I traded with a conviction and fluidity that, whilst far from perfect, was much lacking in 2010 but more akin to my 2009 performance. Of course, with only four games having been played it is far too early to make any sweeping statements about the performance of either myself or the teams involved.

The markets, the late game excepted, were not overly liquid but were certainly tradable which was far better than I had been expecting and offers hope for the remainder of the season.

As for the games played today, it is more than fair that some of the games may have been of a reduced quality and could have caused much frustration if watched during the middle of the season. However, and maybe because Super League has been a large void for the past four months, all the games were immensely enjoyable.

Huddersfield and Warrington kicked the season off as the Giants completed a victory that was unexpected. However, the major cost for Warrington could be that Matt King, Lee Briers, Chris Bridge and Simon Grix all left the field injured which could test Warrington’s strength in depth should any of the injuries prove to be significant.

Next up was Harlequins who looked to play an expansive game on their way to an 11-4 victory over Catalans. However, despite Harlequins looking solid and providing much endeavour in defence, the Catalans looked toothless in attack and in desperate need of some creativity. It is especially harsh to judge a player on debut, but Scott Dureau was particularly underwhelming and will need to significantly improve should Catalans look to make a trip to the playoffs this season.

Following that was Wakefield v Castleford, where Wakefield’s spirited efforts were no match against the class of Castleford. The addition of Danny Orr in particular freed up Rangi Chase to display the form that made him such a hot commodity in 2009.

Sadly, the main talking point of the match was referee James Childs whose whistle appeared to have got lodged in Mr Childs’ mouth. Personally, I am a big fan of clamping down at the play the ball early in the game, but most of the penalties awarded were little more than pedantic involvement. It is true that you can penalise nearly every play the ball or tackle for something and Childs seemed to be on a mission to do so, calling 37 penalties and ordering 3 sin binnings. One can only hope that he is advised to show more restraint in the future.

Saints v Wigan proved an exceptional ending to the weekend and whilst there were obvious flaws with the scheduling and issues with the seeming decline in quality, there is little doubt that starting the season with such an event is a welcome idea and is an excellent return to action for league fans who have been sober for a very long time.

I can only hope that the rest of the season is as entertaining and that trading wise, my judgement is as sound tomorrow and for the season as it was today.

Super League - Round 1 Preview

2011-02-12T00:57:00.002Z

My blog posts are kind of like buses; you wait around for ages and then two appear at once. Only, I hope this blog post is of more use than a trailing bus.

And whilst I won’t be loaning anyone £250 in the imminent future, hopefully the below might help you to earn £250 in a more cost efficient way than visiting a loan shark.

So with the first slate of games due to kick off in around thirteen hours, I thought it may be useful to do a general preview of the upcoming games although obviously such previews will be “blind” – this is the opening game of the season and you never know what will happen.

I would also note that there is much to be gained from just watching. Seeing all 14 sides in action in the first week will offer valuable clues and every year, the operation of the market changes a little. Whilst liquidity is likely to be low due to competing events, there could also be some clues as to how it will operate throughout the season.

It all starts at 1 PM with Huddersfield v Warrington, which has the potential to be an outstanding match with the added spice of former Huddersfield fullback Brett Hodgson set to make his Warrington debut. Currently, Warrington are the favourites on Betfair, trading in the 1.5s, and with neither side having significant injury concerns, such odds are to be expected.

Previously, value in the first week has been readily apparent, but with all games set to be televised and with home advantage having been wiped out, pre play value may be tough to spot. However, liquidity is to set to be a major question mark this season. It dipped significantly last year and with this game being played at the same time as Manchester United v Manchester City in the football, it may be practically non existent.

However, if there is sufficient liquidity, then I would probably look to lay Warrington. With no form to speak of, 1.5 looks slightly too low. Yes, Warrington should be favourites and they will be keen to avenge last season’s playoff loss to Huddersfield but if Huddersfield can beat Warrington at Warrington, then with just Brett Hodgson switching sides, is 1.5 a fair starting price?

Following this, Rugby League adopts its own 6 Nations game as Harlequins take on Catalans. Again, with football matches in full flow and with England playing Italy in Rugby Union, liquidity may be sparse. With both sides having new coaches, much will be unknown in this game and identifying value before the match may be difficult.

That said, it says a lot that I would be reticent to lay Catalans from the off. On paper, the French outfit look a far superior side to the English team but the first twenty minutes will provide much information and it may be worthwhile keeping out of the market until then.

Two hours later there is further conflict as Sunderland take on Tottenham in the football and Wales play Scotland in the Six Nations. Of course, my eyes will solely be focused on the spectacle that is Wakefield v Castleford.

On paper, this looks a knockout and at 1.3, Castleford’s odds reflect that and may even appear generous. However, there is much to suggest that this local derby could go the other way.

Firstly, Wakefield are traditionally quick out of the blocks before stumbling pre-season. Indeed, they have won their last three opening matches. Add in a “backs to the wall mentality” and a lift from the takeover of the club, and an upset is not a too unrealistic possibility.

However, every time my eyes are brought back to the squad listings, the sheer gap between the talent levels of the two teams looks too big to be bridged. However, this is rugby league – where anything can happen.

After this, comes Saturday’s main event, and Grand Final re-run as Wigan Warriors take on St Helens. Wigan look set to field a settled squad and the only changes are likely to boost their already strong forward pack whilst Saints are without stand off Leon Pryce, who controlled their attack in many games last season before a late season injury ended his campaign early.

1.6 for Wigan would therefore appear to be fairly generous. They were by far the dominant side in the Grand Final and despite the return of Kyle Eastmond, there is little in the Saints side to suggest a dramatic improvement. That said, with a new coach in Royce Simmons – as I am keen to say, you never know.

As someone who only focuses on the match markets, my strongest feeling on this would be to take the unders on the points market. Neither side have dynamic pace out wide and both have strong forward packs. It is very easy to see the game developing into an arm wrestle type affair where points are at a premium.

Moving onto Sunday and whilst some will be waking up with a Rugby League hangover, I’ll be rooted in my chair waiting for the games to begin.

At 12, Crusaders take on Salford which, in fairness, is unlikely to be a mouth watering prospect for most, although locals will be interested in the return of Gareth Thomas. However, Salford have made several off-season acquisitions and it will be interesting to see if they are able to gel as a side. Certainly, their acquisitions look better on paper to the declining players that the Crusaders have been able to sign.

1.7 for Salford does appear to be a good price, but given the number of off-season signings, there is a possibility that they may take time to gel and consequently, the best approach could be to just watch the first twenty minutes.

The next game – Bradford v Leeds is likely to go one of two ways. Either the Bulls come out fired up and play with the intensity that you would expect in a derby match when debuting for a new coach, or Leeds’ superior skill levels shine through.

I have been unimpressed by Bradford’s off-season recruitment in general, and with halfback Marc Herbert missing, there will be enormous pressure on the talented but inexperienced Kyle Briggs who will be trusted with the duty of controlling the Bulls against a side who has won three of the last four Super League Grand Finals.

It should be too much, but the odds of 1.5 represent that Leeds are without star players Danny McGuire and Jamie Peacock and that the Bulls should have much motivation for the clash, although Leeds too cannot rest on their laurels with a new coach to impress as well.

Finally, the weekend ends with the match that looks the toughest to call as Hull FC take on Hull KR and despite my criticisms of FC in my season preview, I would agree with this game being an even one as the criticisms related to FC’s lack of strength depth.

However, everyone will be raring to go in the first week and so it is really difficult to compose a starting position for this game. Indeed, after the previous 8 hours of Rugby League, I don’t think anyone would blame you if you took this one off.

Obviously there was a lot of indecision in the above, but that’s to be expected in Week 1 and one of the strengths needed when trading Rugby League is the ability to hit reverse gear instantaneously. The bounce of the ball, the ball of the referee’s whistle, slipping on the turf, taking your eye off the ball as you make a carry, and misjudging a tackle are all so important. It’s no overreaction to say that such events are what decide rugby league matches these days, and if you know that No. 16 is going to knock on at 69:23, well, congratulations on your lottery win.

So that is how I see, or fail to see, this weekend developing. However, what of my aims for the year?

If liquidity continues to decrease, then my trading style will have to become less frenetic and more managed – with longer term positions adopted which I can struggle with given the random sequence of events which make a rugby league match.

More than ever however, I need to be more consistent. Where I identify value, I must be bold. I must hold onto value – even if means I am wrong for the feeling of losing £50 is far better than the feeling of missing out on £500. Being right 100% of the time is meaningless if you are merely adding 1 + 1. It is far better to be right 63% of the time when trying to multiply 42 * 33 * 6 * 12. The problem is, that for a perfectionist, the trend is to add 1 + 1. However, there can be no more “What If” posts even if hindsight is a beast that never sleeps.

So I hope my earnings to have a higher range than before but to provide the highs and the lows. And if I can do that, maybe I can get back to the approach I adopted in 2009 which resulted in a huge enjoyment of trading as opposed to the constant feeling of regret and annoyance which was the mainstay of 2010.

Super League XVI Preview

2011-02-11T21:44:00.001Z

Today is a bit like Christmas Eve for me. Only, instead of getting ready to open presents tomorrow, I am getting ready to watch 7 Super League games on SKY as the 16th season of Summer rugby league commences. For all the faults of the event, having seven games shown on the television over two days is fantastic for a league nut like myself.

To celebrate the start of the season, I have written a very quick preview. It may read more as a collection of thoughts than a structured article so to speak but even my quick writes are fairly long so excuse me if I don’t dwell over the editing as I usually would.

It’s fair to say that these days, I don’t have the time to follow the game as intensely as I used to in the off season and I keep no eyes on the NRL but I have decided that neither of those factors shall stop me going on record with some season predictions – even if such long term predictions have never been my forte. Anyway, onwards I shall go, starting at the floor of mediocrity before rising to the ceiling of excellence. (Yes, my analogies are as bad as my prediction powers.)

And starting at the bottom are the Wakefield Trinity Wildcats who for the off season have been a club in turmoil although the takeover announced today will offer a glimmer of hope to their long suffering fans.

However, the turmoil off the field has definitely affected their squad recruitment and the Wildcats line up with one of the weakest squads in Super League history. At least unlike the 2008 Crusaders however, their squad is full of British youth and if one or two of these players take their opportunity the Wildcats could surprise.

Certainly, in coach John Kear, Wakefield have a man who knows how to get the best out of his squad and who can coach and motivate a team to a higher level than paper suggests.

That said, the Wildcats problems start up front where apart from journeymen props Paul King and Michael Korkidas, Wakefield lack the grunt needed to provide foundations for their halfbacks to succeed although the endeavour provided by Ben Jeffries and Sam Obst can never be questioned. However, Wakefield’s backline does look full of pace and finishing ability and for that reason alone, I don’t think you will ever be able to count the Wildcats out.

However, at the end of the day the Wakefield squad does look to be paper thin and most of their youth talent is that which has been discarded from other clubs and in all honesty, given their impending points deduction, finishing 13th would be a significant achievement.

Next up is another side who have to start the season on negative points, the Crusaders. Massive favourites for the wooden spoon last year, the Crusaders overachieved in a large way making the playoffs for the first time. However, with Brian Noble having departed and with their only recruitment consisting of veterans whose careers are entering the twilight zone, the odds of a repeat performance are small.

Rookie coach Iestyn Harris was an excellent player in his prime, but that is no guarantee of success as a coach and with three players still stranded in Australia due to visa issues, the Crusaders are sure to start the season in a difficult way.

Last year I struggled with the Crusaders all year – I always seemed to underrate them and there is a distinct possibility that I may make the same mistake this year. Certainly their halfback pairing of Michael Witt and Jarrod Sammut is one that can unlock any defence. However, the standard of the middle clubs in Super League has improved so much that their points deduction will likely be a key factor in their ultimate league position.

The next stop on the line is at Harlequins who, for me, complete the “back three”. The Quins are continuing to blood young talent but their squad size indicates a small budget and with the exception of Rob Purdham, who is entering a well deserved testimonial year, they do look short of sheer quality. When your first choice halfback pairing is an Australian hooker and an inexperienced Luke Gale, you may find chances hard to come by.

That said, when they do, in Mark Calderwood and Karl Pryce, they do have two outside backs who are amongst the best finishers in the league when they are at top form whilst for all Luke Dorn’s inconsistencies, his finishing ability has never been questioned. Sadly, neither have approached such a level for quite some time.

The fact is the more I look at the Quins squad, the less I like what I see and am tempted to rank them lower. However, I have a gut feeling that coach Rob Powell could turn out to be a great hire. At 30 and with no Super League playing experience, to have even made it as an assistant coach is a great achievement and the noises coming out of London quietly support this although I do think the Quins have the least chance of securing a playoff spot.

Next up is a team who I have rated significantly lower than everyone else and that is Hull FC. If the title was decided on paper and was held in 2005, then Hull FC would walk away to the title. However, it is decided on grass in 2011.

The first thing that screams out to me is the weakness of the squad. Aside from their first 19, I think the remainder of the squad have 5 -10 Super League games experience. Now, that is not to say that the youngsters named in the squad will be poor, but it takes time for any young player to find their feet and that could hurt the black and whites.

Indeed, given the age of some of the Hull squad, durability is a major concern. Hull looked a massively different side last year depending on whether Sean Long played and that reliance looks set to continue, especially with Richard Horne showing no signs of regaining the form from the peak of his career.

Add in a coach who is almost uniquely unpopular amongst the club’s fans and has shown limited ability so far and it’s easy to see why, over a 27 round season, they could struggle. However, make no doubt about it, Hull are capable of beating any team on their day. It’s just that day may not come around all to often.

For the next spot, we need to travel to France as Les Catalans look to rebound from a disappointing 2010 season. The Dragons look to have had amongst the most turnover from their 2010 squad but the key move could be in replacing Kevin Walters with Trent Robinson. Robinson, who has playing and coaching experience in France, was highly regarded as an Australian assistant and could provide a major boost to the Catalans fortunes.

Sadly, his recruitment appears underwhelming with much set to stand on halfback Scott Dureau who I must confess to being in the dark on. However, his pedigree does not suggest that he will be the force at halfback to make defences account for someone other than Thomas Bosc.

However, the rest of the squad does look strong enough to pose a strong challenge, especially at home although they will need someone to produce the form of their lives if the Dragons are to make the end of season playoffs.

In ninth and therefore just set to miss out on the playoffs are the Bradford Bulls who welcome former Saints coach Mick Potter to the Grattan Stadium. The Bulls look to have developed a completely opposite strategy to 2011 than which they adopted in 2010 and in particular deserve massive congratulations for their season ticket policy which has seen over 10,000 sales. Bullmania defined Super League in the early years and on that level alone, it would be nice to see resurgence with the Bulls running wild.

Sadly, they won’t do so on the field in 2011 as whilst they boast a very deep squad, they also boast a very weak squad with only Andy Lynch having the sure quality that would be needed at a top 4 club.

The Bulls side looks to be taking on the mantle of Mick Potter in so far as they will be workman like, solid and go about their business without any fuss. However, it is hard to see any out and out brilliance which every club needs at some level. I have no doubt the Bulls will cause an occasional upset but they will either need relatively unknown halfback Marc Herbert to produce like Michael Dobson or Willie Peters or Kyle Briggs to be able to display the same performance level as he did in National League 1 against a much higher standard of opposition.

As we move into the playoffs, we first encounter a side who has been nothing short of consistent since their return to Super League, achieving 13th twice in succession, Salford City Reds. Like Harlequins however, I am less fond of this placing the more I look at the team with the Reds looking to be reliant on declining players who may have durability concerns.

However, at the very least Luke Patten should be able to link up well with 2010’s marquee signing of Daniel Holdsworth whilst the Reds are able to rely on Super League talent with upside from 1 – 13 across the park and if key players can remain fit, the Reds should challenge strongly for a spot in the end of season party.

Unlike Salford, the team I have ranked 7th is one I want to rank higher the more I look at their squad but I don’t think I can place Castleford Tigers any higher yet. That said, I believe that the Tigers could provide a return to the form of their 1998-2000 years having made some impressive signings in Richard Mathers to patrol the back and Danny Orr, whose return to his home-town club will offer some much needed alleviation to the pressure defences applied to Rangi Chase in 2010.

With some highly promising youngsters in Adam Milner, Jonathan Walker and Joe Arundel the Tigers should be able to withstand the loss of Joe Westerman, who never looked like replicating the form from his first year, and Michael Shenton, whose strike powers were largely unused in 2010 in any case.

The biggest question mark however remains over coach Terry Matterson. The man whose right foot effectively clinched St Helens’ league triumph in 1996 has never, in my opinion, looked like a top class coach although maybe he has never had the playing talent that he does now. Either way, in a contract year, this looks set to be a year which could decide not only his future, but that of the Castleford Tigers who are locked in a battle for a 2012 Super League franchise.

Occupying the sixth spot are Hull KR. Whilst most cannot separate the two Humberside sides, I obviously have placed them well apart. The Red Robins, for mine, have developed superbly since their introduction to Super League and in my opinion, also have the best young coach in the British game.

The big difference for Hull KR in my opinion this year will be the signing of Blake Green. Whilst he may not be a household name, Green who already knows Michael Dobson, should help to take the pressure of the Rovers’ number 7 whilst also freeing Scott Murrell up to return to his more natural position of loose forward.

Obviously, the wildcard in all this is whether Willie Mason will arrive and if he does, what form he will bring. However, even without Mason, KR definitely have the ability to cause problems to any team in the league even if their three quarter line is without a true game breaker.

My choice for fifth may appear odd at first. St Helens are my hometown club and did overachieve last year in an injury hit season but I keep thinking that the dismantling of the squad that achieved so much success in the 2000s must hit them eventually, and that this may be the year.

Certainly, the appointment of Royce Simmons as coach bucks the usual trend of hiring younger coaches and whilst this may raise queries, it would be folly to dismiss it at such an early stage.

Personally, I just worry about Saints’ speed out wide. Michael Shenton looks more of an accompanying piece than the true star that Saints have been accustomed to in that position. Add in doubts over the durability and long term future of their halfbacks and the possible second season syndrome of the young players that performed so well last year and it is easy to see a situation where Saints, homeless for 2011 and playing at Widnes, could underachieve by recent standards.

That said, placing them 5th probably has more to do with my faith in the side I want to place 4th. Nathan Brown received a lot of criticism in Australia as a coach, but he has done a terrific job at Huddersfield turning an average side into one of the most consistent squads in Super League.

That’s where Huddersfield have failed previously. At times over the past two years they have resembled a schoolyard bully who picks on the smallest guys but avoids the tougher ones but last year’s playoff success was an indication that they could challenge the very top teams.

Their squad from 1 – 19 is bursting with talent whilst they have also shown that they have plenty of talent in the youth ranks. If they do want to reach the next level though, they will need to fit Danny Brough into their system. Whilst I do not see a great player in Brough, there is no doubt that he is a player who can compete at a high level and if he can form a halfback partnership with Kevin Brown, who is finally displaying the talent he showed as a youngster, then the Giants could walk out at Old Trafford on the final day of the season.

At three, come Leeds Rhinos who seem to be being overlooked this year. The late coaching replacement of Brian McClennan with Brian McDermott does look a negative, but McDermott is a widely respected figure at Leeds, and if you look over the coaching history of Super League winners, most tend to have a new coach.

They are another with tremendous strength in depth with 1 – 24 all capable of playing in Super League on a regular basis whilst Zak Hardaker could eventually turn into everything that Kevin Penny was thought to be.

Yes, the early season loss of Danny McGuire and Jamie Peacock will hurt, but if Rob Burrow and Kevin Sinfield can find their form, and there is no reason to suggest they won’t, then Leeds have the strength in depth to cope with such losses and after all, it’s the end of the season that really counts.

And now for number two and believe me, this was a placing that I kept changing my mind on and in the end, maybe to make a statement and maybe because I am a St Helens fan, I am placing Wigan here.

My main issue with Wigan is their outside backs. Darrell Goulding was a fringe player until he started walking in tries, Amos Roberts is a confidence player and that shattered at the same time as his leg whilst Man of Steel Pat Richards is out for two months. At centre, Martin Gleeson, whilst an excellent player, is a shadow of when he was at his best whilst George Carmont is primarily a defensive centre who is more solid than spectacular.

All of the above is one sided and on a balanced viewing, Wigan’s backline is very good but it is by far the weakest area of their squad as their forward pack is as good as any I can recall seeing in the Super League era, bar hooker where there could be a slight weakness if Thomas Leuluai has to move back to the halves for long periods.

That said, with Wigan and Warrington it is more 1a and 1b than 1 and 2 but I have long championed the Wolves as being a side capable of being excellent so why stop now. Especially when Warrington have somehow managed to improve their squad more than Wigan have, in my opinion.

Brett Hodgson may be aging, but he offers a solid defensive presence despite his size and his goal kicking will be a major boost to the Wolves whilst Joel Monaghan is more skilful than Chris Hicks even if he will be less reliable. The Wolves also have some very good young players in Tyrone McCarthy, Lee Mitchell and Rhys Evans who will all prove worthy Super League players if afforded the chance.

If the Wolves do have a concern it would be that they will need Richie Myler to improve on a disappointing first year and to justify his price tag whilst Garreth Carvell was another who disappointed last year but kept his place over Mike Cooper, despite Cooper showing the talent to become as good as James Graham.

With both Wigan and Warrington, when fully healthy, there will be two or three guys in the stands who could get a game for almost any team and over 27 rounds, that quality should shine through.

The playoffs however, are another thing.

As for pre season bets, it’s hard to find any that I love. I was all set to place money on Adam Milner as Rookie of the Year at the 33/1 price displayed in Rugby League World but he is only 10/1 (and has never been anything but according to Oddschecker!)

Salford or Castleford at +20 at 10/1 in the handicap markets look appealing but they don’t scream value.

Some outside bets for Man of Steel look nice including Daniel Holdsworth at 66/1 (If Salford do make the playoffs it will be on the back of some individual performances and Holdsworth at 66/1 is better than Patten at 25/1), Danny Brough or Luke Robinson at 50/1 (If Huddersfield do as well as expected, then they could have a contender) and Michael Dobson or Jon Wilkin at 33/1 (Dobson is likely to be a stand out performer again, and Wilkin has been played at loose forward in the Pre Season and I have always championed Wilkin as being potentially as good as Paul Sculthorpe – although that looks unlikely now.) However, there is nothing to scream value and so I think I may leave these alone.

So that’s my quick runthrough of the season. Now, what do you think?

Millennium Magic? More like Millennium Madness

2011-02-07T21:46:00.001Z

Decision to start the season alongside the 6 Nations is symptomatic of the issues facing the game.

The curtain is raised on Super League XVI this weekend with all fourteen teams in action to kick off the sixteenth season of the top British rugby league competition – a welcome alternative to the launch of the previous two seasons which have both seen Leeds v Crusaders start the year.

If you were unaware of this fact, then you will have plenty of company for the event has been scarcely publicised and has drawn even less media attention. However, unlike other Super League seasons, the opening also has the disadvantage of being entirely localised in an area even smaller than the M62 corridor which the game is often parodied as belonging exclusively for all seven games are being held in Wales’ fantastic Millennium Stadium.

The concept of a Magic weekend was born in 2006, when the clubs elected to hold one weekend where they would all play in the same stadium from 2007 onwards. Initially scheduled for the May bank holiday, the clubs elected to hold it at the Millennium Stadium. Partly as an attempt to raise the profile of the game in Wales and partly to afford the possibility of a Challenge Cup style weekend away in the Spring at a venue which fans had taken to their hearts following the Challenge Cup being held there in

From 2009, the venue was switched to Scotland and Murrayfield stadium. However, the somewhat antiquated venue never proved to be popular amongst fans and with little local public interest alongside derby games being replaced with a seeded draw,
the event lost momentum and the 2010 spectacle ended with complaints from players and fans alike.

Back to the drawing board the RFL and Superleague went and the concept of kicking off the season at the Millenium Stadium was born.

A great idea in principle but it has one fatal flaw. For Wales’ national sport, Rugby Union, and their national team, are also playing on the same day, at the same time. And this is no ordinary fixture clash.

For this opening of the Super League season is in direct competition to the Six Nations. A competition which, helped by the BBC and the Southern leanings of the national press is publicised to the high heavens, all but taking over the sporting media. Let alone in Cardiff, where the entire city can seem to stop as one and tune into the game.

It need not have been like this. For the Six nations does offer respite and the next weekend would have been free. Not only that, but even the insatiable football Premiership takes a break that weekend, albeit for the FA Cup quarter finals but with a fairly limited sporting schedule that weekend, the RFL could have capitalised on a comparatively empty sporting press agenda and used this to effectively promote the Super League season and get the season off with the bang that it deserves.

And whilst it is undoubtedly true that the season schedule is packed more tightly than ever, surely the benefits that would be created by delaying the season by a mere seven days, could have lead to finding room for an extra week.

However, even if at the end of the day, Super League has missed an empty goal to promote itself, then at least this is what the fans were wanting and it is they who count.

If only it were that simple. In the middle of an inflationary recession, how many fans are able to afford the approximately £70 round trip. Even with ticket prices a reasonable £35 for the weekend, given the cost of accommodation and general living costs for the weekends, this is one weekend get away that most families could like to do without. After all, even with the roof closed for the matches, the Welsh weather is unlikely to be hospitable and provide a welcoming weekend to its guests.

Indeed, given all this, it is no surprise that at least one English based club has reportedly sold less than 100 tickets and that, in all likelihood, less than 33% of the teams will make up more than 66% of the total attendance.

In my opinion, the best bet would have been to attempt to launch Super League XVI with a Magic weekend, but in the North of England. Whilst such an event does not provide fans with a weekend get away, the present recession should not be underestimated and fans that do want to get away will still have the prospect of weekends in London and France to look forward to.

Whilst hiring a stadium in the midst of a football season could prove to be nigh on impossible, the thought of 70,000 Rugby League fans over two days, packed together, cheering on seven competitive matches is too appealing to overlook.

However, in fairness to the event organisers, they were definitely in a difficult situation. The Millennium Stadium could have been made unavailable for the next weekend, there could have been no viable alternatives.

Yet, we have ended up with an underwhelming sporting event which has been effectively crowded out from the public’s imagination by the sporting media and which runs the risk of being little more than an embarrassing footnote.

Still, at least it’s not Leeds v Crusaders again.

As for what this means to the betting markets, well it won’t be good news. Liquidity in 2010 was hugely down from 2009 and I suspect that’s a trend that will continue in 2011. As for this particular weekend, most of the money is bound to be traded on Rugby Union at the expense of Rugby League. I would guess that the St Helens v Wigan and Bradford v Leeds games should be good but I certainly don’t hold out much hope for the rest of the games.

It’s also disappointing that the advantage from the first game of the season is likely to be missing. Usually, there are some massive opportunities in the market as home advantage and team strength is massively overrated. However, with all games at neutral venues and having a derby element, the chance of these is low. Still, hopefully there will be sufficient in play liquidity to make a reasonable profit.

Put the kettle on. An unintended 2011 Formula One Preview

2011-01-30T20:46:00.001Z

I know I committed to re-starting the blog last week, but it has been difficult to find something to comment on since then. January is my “hibernation” month. It’s a month where quite frankly, very little happens that interests me on the trading front. I simply plug myself into the re-charging unit to recover from a busier than expected December and to prepare myself for the upcoming Rugby League season.

From a sporting point of view, I enjoy the NFL Playoffs but that’s it. I enjoy the NFL playoffs. After 17 weeks of trading, I like to actually sit back and watch the twelve best teams go head to head. Of course, I might dive in during the games if I see a price which appeals to me, but I certainly do not study the markets and the games as I would during the regular season.

In fact, aside from one or two miniature forays into the Correct Score market on football, my only interest has been in studying the Formula One Drivers’ Championship market – a market which aside from a fruitless back of Fernando Alonso during the Abu Dhabi race I have never studied.

I have commented extensively in the past about the discrepancy in prices between a team’s number 1 and number 2 during races but this discrepancy seems even larger in the Championship market. Indeed, whilst I didn’t study the market last year, I would be nothing short of amazed if, at some points, a team’s number 2 driver traded at a lower price than their number 1.

Most noticeably, Ferrari’s perceived Number One driver – Fernando Alonso – is the favourite at 4 on Betfair. His team-mate, Felipe Massa, is eight times that price at 32. This is a gap which belies my understanding of the market.

The first issue is that Fernando Alonso is a ridiculous price. Last year, Red Bull had the greatest car advantage for quite some time, but it took the last race of the season to deliver the championship. Whilst the greatest cause of this delay was Red Bull themselves, it served as a poignant marker that having the fastest car, or the fastest driver, does not automatically provide a World Championship coronation.

Secondly, even at a time savings account are scarcely providing a nominal increase in the balance, I struggle to comprehend who would want to tie up money at 3 to 1 for eight to nine months. If this is considered the best value bet that you can find on Betfair throughout this period, then I would consider withdrawing whatever money you have left in your account.

As for Felipe Massa’s price – let us not forget that 2011 starts anew. 2010 performance is no more of an indicator than 2008 performance and this is especially true with Massa. 2010 was without doubt a comeback at 95% year as Massa fought to regain his confidence which had been understandably shattered following his 2009 Hungary crash. However, there were enough signs throughout the latter part of the year that Massa could regain the ability which took him to within 20 seconds of the 2008 Championship.

Fourthly, whilst there is little doubt that Ferrari are more likely to build a “Fernando Alonso” car than a Felipe Massa one, Ferrari equally will not be looking to put all their eggs in one basket at the start of the season. Team Orders will play a part in the second half of the season but this is no Michael Schumacher – Rubens Barrichello situation. Both drivers start on equal footing.

Fifthly, and finally, another reason for Massa’s struggles last year was the Bridgestone tyres. Well, they are gone in 2011 and the new Pirelli’s seemed to suit Felipe pretty well in the Abu Dhabi test after the last grand prix when Massa outpaced both Alonso and Sebastien Vettel. Of course, testing times can never be taken at purely face value but this was encouraging.

So – to sum up – the price on Alonso is too low. The price on Massa is too high. Yes, Alonso should be favoured, but by nowhere near as much as he currently is.

Two of the other big teams – McLaren and Red Bull also have sizable gaps between their drivers.

Again, at 4.1 Sebastien Vettel seems too short although given the World Championship in his back pocket, it is understandable. However, with Adrian Newey in the back pocket of Red Bull, the real value lies with Mark Webber. No designer has done more with less recently, and Webber will approach 2011 with the same fearlessness as in 2010 but with a greater knowledge base to support that. Of course, Vettel is the fastest driver but we have frequently seen that is only one variable in the Championship.

As for McLaren, I struggle to understand why their base price is so much higher than Ferrari and Red Bull. The re-introduction of Kers should help as that was the area they excelled at in 2009 whilst I think that Lewis Hamilton could strongly benefit by the move to a different tyre given that Hamilton frequently found himself in conflict with the Bridgestone tyres.

Hamilton, for mine has unnecessarily taken a bad rap in recent times with Alonso and Vettel appearing to be the “head boys” which is odd when you consider that as a rookie, Hamilton was more than a match for Alonso and that Vettel’s race craft, much like Hamilton’s admittedly, needs significant refining.

Again, it is hard to see Hamilton’s price representing value so to speak – but his current price does appear significantly too large in comparison to Alonso and Vettel.

If McLaren stands to benefit from KERS, then so should Mercedes and with both of their drivers in double figures, they could also be a good shout. We do have evidence of what Ross Brawn can do when his team focuses development on their car earlier than other teams.

The change in tyres and reputation probably explains Michael Schumacher being shorter than Nico Rosberg, although Schumacher has himself admitted he will never be what he was and I would look to price them the same.

However, all of this is pure speculation until the cars actually complete some laps and show how they have adopted the new 2011 rules into their cars and if you are looking for a high priced outsider, you could do a lot worse than Force India.

Of course, the gold standard in this area is the 2009 Brawn car which emerged from being a backmarker in 2008 to an unmatchable demon in the early stages of 2009. I’m not so sure that this will happen this year but it would be more than possible for a team to try to generate publicity (sponsorship) by running with minimum fuel like Sauber did last year.

With Williams and Sauber now having lucrative tie ups with Venezuela and Mexico respectively, the most likely candidate for this would be Force India who with the Mercedes engine and Adrian Sutil in particular, have the raw speed to pull off such a manoeuvre. At 250, they definitely look the best of the outside prices.

And to complete what has unintentionally become an analysis of the pre testing market, I would consider Robert Kubica’s price to be significantly too short. Kubica earned several plaudits for his performances in 2010, but I always wondered how well he was really driving. It is difficult to gauge one’s performance when their immediate competitor is a Russian rookie who would probably not be in the sport but for his nationality.

A key aspect to also consider is that even if Renault develop a superb car which seems unlikely – for all their front wings in 2010 they won’t have the most resources to build their 2011 car – Kubica is unlikely to have the consistent support any driver needs to win the world championship. Although just like Ferrari, the gap between Kubica and Petrov does appear to be overstated.

For Williams, Rubens Barrichello will provide excellent technical support in building their 2011 car but it is likely to be a season too soon to make the most of their Venezuelan money whilst the same is likely to be true with Sauber. Both teams also have one rookie driver and I believe that it is more likely that Sergio Perez will run his teammate close. For one, I have never gotten the Kobayashi hype. Indeed, he looked out of his depth at the start of the season until he then started passing cars on fresh tyres which was not as difficult as was made out.

Toro Rosso form the last of the experienced teams and that is likely where they will finish. Red Bull’s sister team seems nothing more than a breeding ground for young drivers but given the lack of progress made by Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguesuari, I wouldn’t be too surprised if one was unceremoniously dumped throughout the season.

As for the new teams, hopefully Team Lotus and Virgin will be able to catch the back of the midfield by the end of the season as they look to become established forces. Sadly, it is no longer as easy as it was back in the early 1990s when the Jordans and Saubers appeared on the scene. As for HRT, their hire of Narain Karthikeyan is only inspiring in so far as it is not Sakon Yamamoto and their presence remains a mystery.

Now watch them have the fastest car on the grid. Although as earlier advised, most of this is subjective nonsense – no-one knows how the teams will perform until testing and even during testing things are likely to be the British weather; cloudy and misleading as teams promote their own agenda.

Finally, no write up of the 2011 season can be complete without a comment on the 2011 regulations. Whilst the re-introduction of KERS is far from disastrous and has undeniable business relevance, the adjustable wing idea seems to be one which could have far-reaching consequences.

Quite frankly, I loathe the idea and suspect that other Formula 1 fans will also hate it. Likely, gone are the days of superb defensive driving and thrilling overtakes. Rather, the race is likely to be controlled more than ever by car quality than driver skill as faced with a difficult opponent, a faster car can just hit a button and artificially move past. This may appeal to more casual fans but could cause significant resentment amongst more hardcore fans. Let us not forget, such an add-on would have almost definitely created a different end to the 2010 World Championship and 2011 races could present a situation where it is better to be second on the last lap – and just pass a helpless opponent on the last straight.

I only hope that turns out to be hyperbole. I felt similarly, but nowhere near as strongly, about the refuelling ban in 2010 but last year wasn’t too bad eh.

P.S. – Another reason for not updating the blog is the fact that what was meant to be a simple update has turned into a two hour writing session which has gone on and on and on. It may have been quicker however, but for my attempts to look for the television remote whilst stabbing myself in the eyes. Yes, that’s what Dancing on Ice can do to you.

Coming off Life Support

2011-01-17T22:18:00.000Z

Like a 1990s Pop Music band who have recently fallen on hard times and who need some cash, I have returned.

When I first started blogging, I never imagined it would be so difficult to maintain but it really is much harder than it looks. From past experience, I may return in a blaze of glory only to then flicker for a while before being removed by the rain which masquerades as the British summer. (The end of the Rugby League season is surely little more than a co-incidence.)

Anyway, enough of me. How have you been? From the looks of things, pretty bored if
you’re still checking this out. I’m not sure I can change that but I can try.

As I enter my third year of trading seriously on Betfair, I continue to be astounded by
the events of the past two years. For all my diatribes and rants, and having looked over this blog there have been many, I have earned far more than I could ever have expected although I remain a small fish who continues to focus on avoiding the great whales more than anything. Quite frankly, earning anything from watching sports which I did for 22 years for my own amusement continues to astound and bemuse me in equal measures.

A quick recap of the events of the past five months which I have been absent from would read trade Formula 1, made some money, traded Rugby League, made some money, traded American Football, made some money, traded the X Factor, poked my eyes out with sticks, filled my ears with cotton and made some money and traded Cricket and lost some money.

But that sums up why the blog became quiet. No one cares in a Profit and Loss blog and no one would really want to say I did A, B and C and earned £1,000,000 because why would you want to give up £1,000,000. (Ed – Writer does not earn £1,000,000.) Sure, it might be nice to follow someone’s story but that can be followed without a I backed D and laid E factual analysis.

The blog also became quiet because well, quite frankly, it usually takes me pretty much in the region of somewhere approaching fifty words to merely illustrate a point of such basic simplicity that the length of time it takes to make said point irritates me greatly.

So that leaves the dilemma of what to do with the blog and the options are plentiful.

The first option would be to simply delete the blog and give up blogging. However, if I were to do this there would be little reason to make this post in the first place so that can be quickly dismissed. (If that disappoints you, click that little X in the top right corner of your screen.)

The second option is to make this blog a Profit and Loss one but I’ve ruled that out so if you want to know how much I’ve earned you will need to develop psychic powers.

The third option would be to make this a poor version of Cassini’s blog – Green All Over – a blog that is without compare (Unless it’s actually a meerkat in disguise). This option appeals but I’m not sure I have the imagination or inspiration to find so many diverse topics to write about. Still, it is an option that intrigues me and ideas permitting, I will certainly be looking to make general comments about topical issues

The fourth option is to make the blog much more of a sport orientated blog and when I say sport, I mean Rugby League with a dash of Formula One where the posts are more analytical of issues not directly concerning themselves with trading. This is another possibility. I am fairly au fait with writing extensively about Rugby League as my irregular previews which can be found in the archives attest to. The slight down side to this however though would be that such posts would pretty much be of limited interest to the current target audience whilst the presumed audience would similarly be put off by the more regular trading posts which would appear so whether this would be a worthwhile approach is unlikely.

The fifth option would be to take a combination of three and four, add in some one when I can(‘t?) be bothered.

The sixth option? Well, I don’t so much write this for me as I already have these thoughts on my mind, so I would love to know what you think.

Not for children

2010-08-15T22:28:00.001+01:00

Warning: The following post contains language unsuitable for young children, and old children as well.

Imagine you backed a loser at its lowest price. You’d be pretty pissed, right?

Now imagine you’d won £250 despite backing a loser at its lowest price. How would you feel?

How about more pissed off? Without a doubt, the most pissed off I have been ever from trading.

For as long as I can remember, I have advocated laying early favourites in Rugby League, and, it’s fair to say, I’ve made reasonable profits by doing so. However, around June this year, I decided to change and to keep my lays of early favourites.

That is to say, to leave them and to carry on trading the markets as if the lay had never been placed. Since then, I’ve not had much success. I’ve not had many failures however; my trading irrespective of the lays has been good enough to avoid significant red.

Until today.

Wigan v Huddersfield was a strange game with Wigan being 1.06 to lay despite the score only being 4-0. However, I never really lumped on in the way I thought I would but a late first half try allowed me a second opportunity and I took it. Earlier trades had also ensured a massive green on the draw and allowed me to really avoid significant red on Wigan.

However, as the second half carried on, the money kept pouring in and I caught myself with far too much liability on Wigan so I started trading out at just above or equal to the lay price, only for Wigan to look to score.

At which time, I looked to get out for a price below my lays. £200 at 1.04. Now, for f**k’s sake come on. I don’t go into profit and loss on here, but £8? That’s less than 1% of my yearly earnings, if I had let the bet run. Why the f**k do I need £8? Of course, I don’t. Well, I mean everyone does – no-one will turn down £8 but in the grand scale of things, it makes no sense.

So why do it? It goes back to the age old problem of treating each trading event as a “match” where green, no matter the size, is declared the winner. A stupid, stupid approach that I had hoped to long consign to the history bin.

That said, the worst was yet to come…

Stung by the sheer idiocy of my trades, I started to green up. First when Huddersfield score to make it 10-6, securing £50, then when Huddersfield made it 12-10, for £100, and then when Huddersfield 18-16, for £170.

The problem was, this was not what I had promised I would do. I had vowed to leave green on the underdog in the knowledge that big wins come in, and come in regularly. And, the biggest wins come from the most unlikely of situations.

So, here I stand. Comfortably £500 worse off than I should be, and more than that, having regressed to old trading ways which only serve to keep this as an obsessional hobby, as opposed to a lucrative activity.

The fact is, the pressure was applied, and I broke.

Excuses can be made for sure, like the fact that I had a train to catch at 70 minutes, but it is what it is – an excuse that does not compensate for a woeful trading performance. (And given that I was not watching the match, it makes trading out all the more ridiculous.)

And could the evening get any worse? Well, how about spilling drink over my bag and forgetting event tickets for a friend. Yes, I’d say this was a pretty shit night, but more than that – at the risk of hyperbole – I really feel that this could be the night where the trading train was derailed.

For good.

Rugby League - The Greatest Game of All.

2010-06-20T22:11:00.000+01:00

To anyone who has questioned my love of rugby league, you only need to look at today's games to understand my love for the greatest game of all.

Four games kicked off at 3.00 PM today. Leeds v Crusaders saw last year's Grand Final winners take on last year's Wooden Spoon collectors, who were missing both of their halfbacks. Regular readers will be aware of my 1.0 first half rule, but even I have to say that at 1.1 pre match, I saw no value in the away side. How wrong was I as the Crusaders collected an unbelievable 32-26 victory. I say unbelievable but really, looking at results over the past two seasons, it was anything but.

Two further games this afternoon saw incredible comebacks. Castleford led 22-6 at Salford (1.7 pre match) after 30 minutes only for Salford to come back to level the game with twenty to go before a late Cas try secured victory whilst Hull led Huddersfield (1.7 as well) 18-0 at the break only to lose 32-18. Sadly, twenty two men kicking a ball from one end of the pitch to another dominated the sporting attention of the nature, and there was practically no money matched in these games.

Adding to the above was the main event. Wigan v St Helens on Sky Sports at 5.15. Quite frankly, anyone who reads this blog with a spare 80 minutes needs to watch a replay of this game to marvel at unprecedented levels of intensity, physicality and, above all else, entertainment. As St Helens fullback Paul Wellens said afterwards, "I've been watching the World Cup and some of them are stealing a living."

Now, in the interests of fairness, I need to disclose a pretty big bias in that I am a childhood Saints fan. Growing up, I hardly missed a Saints match home or away but since defecting to the other side of the Pennines, it's fair to say that I've lost interest in terms of following my hometown club as closely as I used to. It's probably also fair to say that the recent dominance of Saints has also eeked my interest away. With ten successive Cup Semi Final appearances and with the Saints always being there or there about, the thrill of winning has really subdued from the initial glory days at the start of the Summer era. In fact these days, you are more likely to find me at a lower division game!

However, today, for the first time in a very long time, I felt sheer delight at the result in what was otherwise a meaningless league match. Whilst even the most ardent of RL fans would admit that the standard of games served up this year has been substandard, this was as good as any game of the recent past. Indeed, watching the game in the pub (a byproduct of still not having SKY installed in Leeds), I could hardly keep a straight face and even felt the need to watch the final few moments infront of the television. What good that would do, I have no clue.

In terms of trading (Hello Betfair Mobile) I made a conscious decision to keep all my green on Wigan despite laying Saints as low as 1.05. (Note, this was another game where a comeback occured (From 1.01 to 1.3) which I didn't predict and believe me, I predict a lot.) It's an interesting fact that whereas most people often look to back their teams financially, I always do the opposite as if to provide a "can't lose" situation but more likely to support my rather general negativity accordingf to those closest to me! The end result was a loss of £1, but the sheer elation of the victory which returned me to such memories like Twickeham 2001, Old Trafford 1999, 2000 and 2002, Wide to West and the Hand of God - Tommy Martyn style was worth far more than my possible monetary gain.

After all, I trade for enjoyment, the challenge and the profit and as the latter is surely to enhance the first and this result unilaterally provided a greater degree of enjoyment than the financial reward could have.

So believe me when I say that my words are insufficient in describing this game and it is a spectacle that you should really look to watch even if you have never watched a RL game before in your life.

Finally, you may note that I only mentioned three of the four 3.00 PM games. That is as the other, Hull KR v Quins was a 1.01 express train although it did see the return to action of Rob Purdham, Harlequins skipper who has been missing on compassionate leave after his brother Garry was one of Derrick Bird's victims in Cumbria.

And if after watching St Helens v Wigan, you feel the need to watch Rugby League live, well there will be no better chance to do so than England v Cumbria at the end of the year in memory of Garry Purdham. Sure the intensity and skill may not be on the same level, but a more noble cause there isn't.

Trading not to lose

2010-06-19T23:37:00.000+01:00

The best advice for a new trader, in my opinion, is to trade not to lose. The worst advice for an experienced trader is to trade not to lose.

Trading not to lose is an expression I use where you set up a trade with the belief that the market will go against you. Therefore, at the slightest twitch, you look to scratch to avoid a major drift, or at the slightest sign of profit, you take it. However, an experienced trader should really not be concerned with looking to lose but rather taking a long term view. A losing trade does not a losing trader make more than a winning trade makes a winning trader.

It is an issue that has plagued my decisions, ironically, the more succesful I have become.

I strongly believe that the biggest skill a trader needs is confidence and the ability to make mistakes. Very few trades are strictly linear. Most will have the odd bump in the road but an experienced trader should be able to deal with that but it seems that the more I trade, the more cautious I become.

For instance, in Bradford v Warrington tonight, I strongly expected the Bradford price to trade below 1.2 prior to kick off. All the trading statistics I hold and market data I have pointed to this. However, despite backing at 1.23 in the early morning, I made a neglible pre match gain. This was due to my reticence to use large sums of money and my unease whenever the price held firm. And when the game went in play, I became more cautious - bailing out of my 1.0 First Half lays in the 1.1s just to avoid red - treating each trade as one that needs to be "won" despite actually "losing" by greening too soon. What could have been a very large position on Bradford became nothing more than a pleasant Warrington position.

It's an annoyance that is near enough impossible to explain to my non trading friends who remain incredulous at my ability to earn my current profits and consider my negative reactions to be absurd.

It's also nothing new. Regular readers will be aware of my issues with red. At the moment though, my trading stinks. Fortunately, my monetary results do not equate to my performance with the premium charge popping back on my radar, but I am becoming more cautious without reason and my net scoreboard position is becoming almost crimson.

There was an excellent point made on the excellent Flutter F1 that the worst feeling is the winning trades that are cut short, and that is definitely my main issue. I've explored possible reasons for this previously - hypothesizing that this may be due to a "need to win every trade" and a desire not to "throw earned money against the wall" but I need to remember that red is my friend and that green is the enemy.

At the end of the day, what I need to remember is "so what if a trade goes against me?". Firstly, I am not dealing in obscene sums of money. At no stage would my liability ever be in excess of three figures and my results show that trusting my instincts would actually lead to much greater results. Secondly, so what if I am wrong. At the moment, I appear to be trading with a thought that I "cannot be wrong" which is complete crap and lending itself to my trading not to lose / scared trading approach.

As usual, imagine if I ever did trade with confidence! Then, there would be no stopping me...

And as usual, any comments would be gratefully received - especially if anyone can offer any advice that can assist me!

Name appeal and favouritism

2010-06-08T20:52:00.000+01:00

Reputation is a funny old thing. It is invariably something that you only acquire long after you deserve it and something that you give up long after you should. You only have to look at the NFL all star game, the Pro Bowl, to see a good example of it in action. With alarming regularity, players who had a good previous year are selected despite a mediocre year and, for those who have been a top player for a while, quite often continue to be selected well after their powers have peaked and they approach the steady decline to retirement.

It’s an issue that for mine has interesting influence on betting markets. I’ve chronicled in the past extensively on my beliefs as to the correlation (or lack of) from previous results to future performance in Rugby League, and especially so in relation to market behaviour and starting prices.

It’s also a trend that I am starting to see more and more in Formula One where opinions on driver ability appear fixed and drivers get far more support than they deserve.

A quick look at the Race winner market for the Canadian Grand Prix proves my point. Ferrari were undoubtedly slower than Mercedes and around the same pace as Renault in Turkey, and have no new planned improvements to speed their car up, and Montreal would not appear to be a track which would suit them.

However, Fernando Alonso is a clear fifth favourite despite having a car which would place him at best seventh. Alonso’s poor season (for all the talk that Massa is underperforming this year, Alonso has arguably been more disappointing – he has definitely made more mistakes) has simply not been factored into the price.

Yet, Felipe Massa is eighth favourite for the race, behind Robert Kubica and Michael Schumacher, and is available at odds three times greater than Alonso. Massa has had a disappointing season, but the general perception that he is a poorer driver than Alonso is blindly factored into the price despite the fact that they have the same car.

So, is it clear where the value lies?

In my opinion, trading value lies more with Fernando Alonso.

Allow me to explain. As a trader, it is important to remember what your goal is and that is, to make a profit. To do so, you need not select the winner. What you need to do is back at a price higher than that you can lay at, or vice versa and the successful trader will take into account the fact that Alonso has his supporters which will always drive his price down further below his true chance of victory, whereas the lack of support for Massa will see his price drift out to well beyond his true chance of victory. Of course, for gamblers, there is little question where the true value lies (and the same goes for traders who are more reliant upon on track events to achieve profits.)

None of this should be construed as a recommendation to back Alonso, however. In Formula One prices are so heavily reliant upon grid position that trades should not be made until this is settled. (Note – I would believe that leaving a position open during Qualification is akin to gambling.)

Indeed, in several races this year, I have seen Alonso start behind Massa at shorter prices, stay behind Massa at the start who can drift severely whilst Alonso stays at the same, much shorter price, despite sometimes having a further two cars to overtake to get to Massa, a very difficult proposition in Formula One! (Although we must note that in play liquidity is sketchy if your car is outside the top 5 or 6 and so is more reliant upon individual driver opinion than if Alonso was actually near the front of the field.) Also, in Australia I remember Lewis Hamilton being favoured over Jenson Button despite all pit stops having been made and Button having a lead! Sometimes it can work out, like last week when Hamilton was curiously favoured over second placed Vettel, but the vast majority of times, it doesn’t!

Finally, whilst being far away from a F1 expert, if I had to list the drivers in accordance with likelihood of victory this week, I would go Hamilton, Vettel, Webber, Button, Rosberg, Schumacher, Kubica, Alonso, Massa, Petrov. (I think the Red Bulls have more chance of victory than the McLaren, but the quality gap between Hamilton and Button means that I believe Lewis has the best chance.)

A quick look at the market would show where I believe the value to lie, and for once, I have actually availed myself to keeping an open position on one driver, even if the superiority of the top 4 is such that it will be difficult for an outsider to break in.

I can't think of a title

2010-05-31T22:27:00.000+01:00

Hello again. Remember me? I’m the one who keeps promising to blog more, makes two or three posts and then vanishes for a couple of months. Incredibly frustrating for the small minority who keep returning but probably irrelevant to the vast majority.

The fact is, I am finding it hard to find topics to blog about. And equally difficult, is finding the time to write given my current working hours!

When I started the blog, it was designed to do two things. Firstly, it was designed to help organise and develop my trading skills and whilst these are skills that are always in need of being developed, everyone can improve, I am no longer the rookie in such desperate need of this. Secondly, it was designed to preview and review Super League matches. However, as attested by my recent Profit and Loss summaries, this is an area I am focusing less and less on.

I’ve always been a RL junkie and always will. However, just like when I departed to University, finding the time to watch games without immediate access to SKY television is difficult. Last year, I would seem to watch games in my sleep. This year, I am struggling to do any research into the games and a lot of my trades are simply based on blind beliefs, brief glances, market knowledge and statistical analysis.

Ah, statistics. I’ve always been a statistics geek and even today, on a complete day off with no events to trade on Betfair and no work to go to, I’ve done little else but pour over my trading statistics from the past month.

They make pleasant but frustrating reading. My profits are better than ever. At a level that would be obscene to non traders but remains small fry compared to most. However, if I was a computer who applied formulae rigidly, then I would have matched my yearly profits in a single month on a single sport and I would be earning truly obscene amounts. (For example, my 1.1 rule would have come in superbly for Sheffield v Keighley and my general approach to hedge the draw below 2 would have lead to a double success. Instead, my £15 pre match back of the draw at 75 would not have been traded out at 50, largely hedged at HT and then fully hedged at below 2…)

The fact is, I am a human being with an attitude to risk approaching zero. (What 21 year old starts a pension voluntarily and invests primarily in Gilts….) Whereas I had hoped to develop my ATR through Betfair it’s reaching a stage where I am beginning to accept my approach with a resigned indignation.

Ironically, my only departure from this was based on a pure statistical analysis that failed due to my nerves but that is a story for another day.

So, if I am doing better than ever how does this reconcile with spending less time analysing Rugby League and being so critical of myself?

The first answer is that as anyone who reads the archives will know, I am a hyper critical perfectionist which can dominate my trading! And I don’t think that will ever change…

The second answer is that I have a new Number 1. Well, I say a new Number 1 but it is the event that convinced me to carry on with trading in 2008.

Formula One. (Thank you Nelson Piquet JR.)

Of course, having three Grand Prix in the month didn’t hurt but my Formula One trading has really developed over the past twelve months as I have studied the market keenly and used it in accordance with my own personal observations. For instance, I do not agree with the huge odds disparity between most teams’ drivers. Mark Webber at 3.5 or Sebastien Vettel at 1.6 before Q3? Felipe Massa at 65 or Fernando Alonso at 22 before Qualifying even started? The best answer of course would be Lewis Hamilton and that was a source of irritation for I did have a larger than usual green on Hamilton.

In Monaco, I had a similar position on Mark Webber and greened out after his quick lap between 2 and 3. However, when Hamilton crashed below 2.5 in Q3 on his quick lap, I was too slow to take advantage. The £50 I gave away on Webber was doubled in relation to how much a green up would have benefited me. A question on value which I shall hopefully expand upon in a future blog post.

But generally, I have to love a sport which sees a 1.01 overturned in Fernando Alonso to reach Q3 and an in play race related market which sees three drivers trade below 1.1 and a further two below evens!

Even if the love for some drivers does make me want to rip my hair out!!! (E. G. Fernando Alonso being at lower odds than Felipe Massa despite being 4 places behind on a track that Massa loves, and Massa still being double Alonso’s price even once the race has started and Alonso has shown an inability to even get past Kamui Kobayashi! But then again, I don’t see the point in laying a 200/1 shot.)

I realise there isn’t a huge amount of usual information in the above, but I just wanted to get something posted on how I’ve been doing recently. Hopefully, this will help kickstart me to produce a few more (interesting) posts in the near future like the excellent Green All over and Flutter F1. And with time off work this week having bought tickets to all five days of the England v Bangladesh test at Old Trafford, it should be the perfect time for me to start posting again…

As usual, all comments are gratefully appreciated… If only to remind me that one or two people do actually read my posts!

One Year On - Part II

2010-04-20T23:08:00.001+01:00

My last blog post reflected upon my development in my trading throughout the previous twelve months and considered my development to have been unthinkable. Even more unthinkable however, would be the progress in my work life throughout the previous twelve months.

Most people join Betfair with a vision of sitting back, watching sports and having a better, more interesting life away from the daily grind of work. I don’t know if I ever subscribed to the full time dream but it is certainly safe to say that I was highly disillusioned with my work life twelve months ago and frankly despised going into work.

In a nutshell, I left University with a set plan which then flipped on its head due to an enforced job change to something of no interest, challenge or relevance to me and then due to other events involving health and fitness, flipped to an entirely new position. And the next thing I know, I find Betfair and try to use that to edge me closer back to my original plan.

Now, whilst I am still far away from the ideal path I envisioned on leaving University, I feel I am edging closer to it having amazingly been promoted from my current job. (And even though the new job is a fairly significant promotion, the increase in earnings is less than a very good weekend on Betfair due to several reasons!) Still, it not only should produce a confidence boost but also a feel of some contentment given that I am starting to do something to meet the ridiculously high expectations I set for myself.

It’s hard to find the words to illustrate what a dramatic turnaround this is without going into too much detail, which I would rather avoid, but believe me when I say that no-one could have ever seen this coming. In fact, it is such a ridiculous turnaround that any script portraying this would be rejected due to its sheer ridiculousness!

You may wonder why I have chosen to blog about a seemingly irrelevant topic but this actually has a huge effect on my trading.

Put simply, my trading over the past few months has suffered from a lack of preparation (As have the blog posts!). Whereas last year I would watch copious game film and analysis of teams before a RL match, this year I have struggled to even keep up with the highlights and have largely winged it and due to my perfection tendencies, have been too caught up in greening up at the earliest opportunity. This is largely due to the insane number of hours I have been working which, whilst unlikely to decrease going forward, is something I can definitely fit my trading around better, even if I am finding it more difficult this year to fit my trading around my social life.

So, hopefully, regular readers will benefit from greater analysis both pre and post match although I think it might take a couple of weeks to catch up with this.

Before I end the post however, allow me to comment briefly on the weekend’s Chinese Grand Prix. On Saturday qualification, I managed a profit approaching £15. On Sunday, I managed a profit over fourteen times greater although I consider my performance on Saturday to be much better.

By Saturday, I usually have an open book expecting the market to move in certain directions but I woke up on Saturday morning feeling extremely ill and unable to trade. Now, at 4 AM, there isn’t a great amount of liquidity and so I looked to largely trade out of positions not expecting to be in any fit state to trade the qualification market in play. However, I didn’t fully trade out due to what I considered to be poor value on some drivers and therefore entered Qualifying with a red of £70 on Vettel, Hamilton and Alonso.

Whilst I did feel terrible, my inability to sleep meant that I did watch qualification and whilst only trading at half speed, eventually managed to remove any red which I considered to be a phenomenal achievement.

Whereas in the race itself, I felt out of control and feel that I rather got lucky with some trades. However, I am starting to wonder if this is just typical of wet races where there is so much activity. After all, if you have cars entering pits and your live timing screen not working, it is to be expected that you can’t keep up with everyone – well I can’t!

Still, despite being caught out by the ridiculous pre race odds on Lewis Hamilton (I had laid at 10 post Qualy considering this to be huge value; especially when I was able to back his team mate who was AHEAD of him at 30!) and amazed at the odds on Mark Webber (9 whilst second?!), I obviously managed to do some things right!

It’s interesting to note that someone could have easily made my profit just by two or three well placed trades on Sebastien Vettel before the race, but I feel my strategy is much less risky and therefore the profit (whilst more difficult to obtain and involves much more hard work) is much much more rewarding and meaningful!

A three week break from the races is now on the cards before they move onto Europe which I feel shall see an increase in liquidity and may take me a couple of races to react to; especially if such seemingly ridiculous prices continue!

Until then, any comments are gratefully received as usual!

One year on

2010-04-05T00:46:00.001+01:00

I’m at an age in my life where years speed by faster than you would like but the progress in my trading over the past twelve months has been so vast that I could easily believe it has been twelve years.

Twelve months ago to the day, I wrote this where I outlined my plans to take my trading endeavours more seriously.

The truth is, a lot of my bad habits remain. I do trade out too soon. I do panic too much at the sight of red. I do focus on “winning” too much. I do kick myself unnecessarily and most importantly of all, I still do not take the risks that I had hoped increased exposure to trading would help me to.

However, in terms of market knowledge and its application and in terms of profit, I do not think I could have ever anticipated being at the level I am currently at. Of course, markets do not stand still but constantly evolve, and are doing, and my success could be turned into failure at any time. However, as someone who drives themselves to beyond perfection and is never satisfied, I feel I should step back, achieve focus and congratulate myself for my achievements – even if they have come to the detriment of several other areas.

Reviewing my posts from April 2009 in particular, I see my astonishment at earning £700 from one rugby league match and my aim towards my income in general. Well, I’m now at the stage where even when I have earned £600 - £700 per week, I kick myself and feel I have underachieved. A case of redefined boundaries for sure but in a broader context, that is a jaw dropping amount for a hobby which is in addition to my day job.

Of course, the aim now is to take my trading exploits to another level, but I have to admit, I am not sure how. Of course, I should look to increase my exposure to risk and be more willing to let trades run, perhaps stick to a pre defined plan in relation to investing in Rugby League markets, but there is no simple on / off switch I can press to produce a difference in my attitude this time.

It would be very nice to have a list of goals to set for the next twelve months, but that will have to wait for now. Maybe, however, my goal for the next twelve months should relate to development in my personal life – where I have quite clearly fallen short recently.

That is an area of my life which I have largely left off my blog for valid reasons apart from references to my decision re: Law school last year and references to “personal issues” earlier this year. The fact is, I would imagine that anyone who reads the blog can already make certain assumptions based upon the general tone of my comments! (Why do I always feel more willing to list these things late at night!)

Clearly, the number one thing to address would have to be commitment to perfectionism and fear of failure. Whilst these are very decent goals to have in life, they can actually have a very negative, stalling effect as can be evidenced throughout my trading. That is also just the tip of the iceberg of the things I wish to change about myself following a highly tumultuous past three years but I would dare suggest that is probably all I should say for now on a public forum!

However, if regular readers (Are there any – who actually reads this *****!) can spot any other areas for development please, please, please leave a comment!

That is definitely something to ponder – but for the next thirty minutes I shall bask in a glow of contentment before reverting to type and criticising myself for every area in which I fall short of perfection!

And I shall also briefly comment on today’s Formula One race in which I enjoyed pleasing success.

As to be expected, I almost fully equalised prior to the start – deciding that a green of around £100 was far better than a green of £110 and £0 on Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton. I was also able to increase that by around 50% during the race itself which was particularly pleasing.

As for the race itself, I continue to observe a market which behaves differently to how I would expect. Despite a tremendous start, I never saw Lewis Hamilton trade in single figures, whilst Felipe Massa, Jenson Button and Fernando Alonso all drifted but not to huge extents. The price on Alonso was particularly baffling given the noted problem with his car and the fact that he was behind Felipe baby, which would have meant that even if rain would have resulted in an alternative strategy – he would have been second in line for any pit stop.

There seems to be a definite advantage for in play position takers but as a trader, it is my job to spot these trends and to try to profit accordingly. Especially when I am all green, it would be relatively foolish to take large positions for the sake of a relatively long shot.

One thing that has interested me the most as well has been a pivot table that I have put together to indicate my success and failure on all drivers actually during the race and qualifying. The markets pre event and during event are two different beasts and as a trader, it is always nice to review statistics to see if they match with the belief I held during the race. Plus, I am a statistics junkie! So that is something to work on prior to China.

Finally, I have posted a quick preview of Round 10 in the Super League and this can be found here - if anyone is sufficiently interested.

Malaysian Grand Prix – Yet again I want to oppose the market

2010-04-03T21:29:00.001+01:00

Tomorrow is the third Formula One Grand Prix of the season and the third time that I have had a disagreement with how the market has been formed. Being someone who primarily opts to trade the market as opposed to taking positions this creates a dilemma for me in so far as how far I trust my instincts.

In the first two races, I have equalised my book prior to the race due to the fact that I would not be watching the first rain and in Australia, due to the rain which can render the race a lottery. However, if tomorrow’s race starts in the dry, and that is a big if, I will likely be more inclined to scatter my green in line with the view of the market.

To recap, in the first race, I disagreed with the market making Fernando Alonso favourite over the pole sitter Sebastien Vettel as I thought the new regulations could make the race more of a procession. Whilst Alonso did win the race and prima facie, support my decision to equalise, it should be noted that was only due to a reliability issue. The race did render a procession which supported my initial view.

In Australia, my main disagreement was with the price of Lewis Hamilton, although once the rain started to appear, a factor that was probably built into the price, I equalised but the race continued to throw up some prices that I disagreed with; the most memorable being Fernando Alonso a much shorter price than Felipe Massa despite being stuck behind his team-mate on a dry track.

So, what is wrong with this race?

In a nutshell, everything. Whilst rain does make the race a lottery, it also appears to provide some of the same opportunities as in qualifying whereby a driver’s reputation is more of an influence on the odds than his overall position.

How else can you explain Sebastien Vettel, starting behind his team-mate Mark Webber, being a shorter price? Webber lines up on the front row of the grid alongside Nico Rosberg who appears a far too appealing price at 8. He isn’t exactly in a Hispania car, and by way of comparison, is 8 to Schumacher’s 22, despite Rosberg comfortably outpacing Schumacher all season and qualifying 6 spots higher!

Nico Hulkenberg’s impressive qualifying showing also appears to have counted for little; the German being two spots ahead of team-mate Rubens Barrichello who, whilst no slouch in the wet, is shorter!

All of the above I could understand and probably equalise before the start. However, then we have the McLarens and the Ferraris who could not even out qualify a Lotus and a Virgin car.

After qualifying, I looked to lay these cars at 50 believing that this was more than fair odds.

However, I got it wrong. Majorly. (Although, thanks to other trades I have effectively managed to restore my pre-qualifying position.)

Jenson Button in 17th is available in the 30s, the same price as 4th and 6th placed drivers Adrian Sutil and Robert Kubica who are both good drivers and in competitive cars. Lewis Hamilton is 20th and behind Button but is as short as 20.

Now, Hamilton can be quick in the wet, but shorter than his team-mate whilst being 3 places down the grid is just something that is beyond me. Especially when you consider that if a pit stop is required at any point, priority is given to the higher placed driver which would only delay Lewis further.

The fact is that the market appears to have love for Hamilton and Fernando Alonso, who is the same price as Hamilton. However, the market appears to have no respect for Felipe Massa who is three times as big as Alonso despite being only one place behind him. We saw how Alonso could not pass Massa in the last race and it stands to reason that a good start like last time could see Massa leapfrog Alonso.

There is no question that in the wet, driver skill and the car comes more into play. However, it appears to me that these factors are being grossly overestimated. We saw last week how a quicker car and a better driver can be easily held up by a slower car, be it Alonso, Massa and Kubica or Schumacher and Alguersuari. The current market does not appear to be factoring this into play, although in fairness I should note that McLaren have a straight-line speed advantage that should help them to overtake the midfield in Malaysia.

Also, at the end of the day, I have to bear in my mind that I am effectively advocating backing 1.03 – 1.05 shots and so it definitely isn’t worth carrying red on these cars. However, I’m currently loathed to allocate any green to prices which appear ridiculous although given the price of these cars, I may look to equalise before the race to satisfy my risk averse nature.

As for qualifying itself, the liquidity that had been missing in Australia reappeared which was advantageous. On the downside, I yet again gave too much value away; the best example being levelling up my book before Q3, giving green away on Nico Rosberg and Mark Webber.

My general qualifying strategy is one of franticness, making several trades per minute with one eye on the live timing screens and one eye on the market with my ears trying to follow the TV.

I look to take value and then get rid of it as soon as possible. The downside to that is that I always end up kicking myself for giving away green. The upside is that I tend to have a level book which can produce a consistent profit.

Of course, this does work well at times. I didn’t get saddled with pointless green on the McLarens and Ferraris for instance, but maybe come Q3, I should embrace the value that I find, trade in a more calm and composed manner and only give it back at market value. However, given how I read the race markets, perhaps I should continue as I am!

However, to put this into context, 12 months ago I would never have thought it possible to make the profits I do now on Formula 1. I have identified and worked upon a successful strategy in a market where I do not have any form of natural edge although as with everything, there is always room for development.

The psychology of losing and the schizophrenia of the Draw

2010-04-02T23:03:00.001+01:00

Life is about expectations. If you expect the best, the smell of second is akin to standing next to someone who is yet to embrace deodorant. If you expect the worst, the smell of second is like a garden of roses. You can always try to condition yourself to expect little to try to appreciate the natural smell, but the fact is that once you are accustomed to roses, it can be very difficult to remove them from your memory.

I guess that’s a particularly long winded way of saying I did well this weekend, but I should have done better!

I make no apologies for mentioning figures in this blog. I know there is heavy debate as to whether bloggers should post their profits (and losses). I believe that they help to set the background and provide context. I also believe that they help to show what can be achieved with hard work and determination. I know that the amounts I make are comparatively modest, but I continue to be amazed at being paid for watching events I have watched gratuitously for the first 24 years of my life, and I hope that this blog can show you what can be achieved

With that, I have currently made £325 from Rugby League trading in the space of 26 hours and have open green positions on both qualifying and the race for the Malaysian Grand Prix. Not bad, especially when I consider that I write this whilst being wrapped up warm with glands the size of golf balls and a growing inability to eat solid food!

I also know that most prefer not to read an unedited “I did this and then I did that” account of trading, but if you’ve read this far, then I am sure you can continue to indulge me as I attempt to analyse the trades of someone whose thinking is at best contradictory and confused by feeling ill and at worst, woeful. (Imagine how I will profit if I ever put it together!)

I love the Easter weekend. Two days off work is good. Two rounds of Super League is great. Four games on SKY TV in 24 hours is… well, there are just no words!

And it began with Whitehaven v Barrow in the mud at a sodden Recreation Ground at 6 PM last night. (A kick off I almost missed due to National Rail who conspired to leave me sat on a stationary train with no phone signal for 30 plus minutes yesterday.)

Having seen the conditions and with knowledge that Whitehaven would field two Super League standard players in Gregg McNally and Kyle Amor, I opted to start with a small back of Whitehaven although my pre match trading had been hampered by the fact that, at 6 PM, liquidity in such a game is in short supply and my reticence to embrace red.

As it was, the game was a low scoring affair which saw Whitehaven lead early on before falling to a Barrow side whose overall superior quality shone through as the match progressed. The game also served notice of the change to the draw, but I will deal with this later.

As per standard, I traded out of my small Whitehaven position too early to embrace green and then just made small trades as opportunities arose on my way to a profit of around £35. But this was just the starter and the main course was still to come, Leeds v Bradford. And with a 8 PM kick off, there was just time to get a drink and get back to work.

Now, this is where I start to infuriate myself. At the start, I acknowledged that Bradford were too high, but did not really get involved; opting to keep a fairly level book, but did try to back them shortly before they opened the scoring, but failed to get matched.

Leeds then came straight back and looked to score before turning the ball over. However, possibly due to how I was feeling, I had forgotten to cancel my Bradford back which had been matched, and now could be traded for a nice profit, which I rushed to make – accepting below market value on account of the red on Leeds. (I prefer to make short trades; staying in rarely longer than a set of six.) Only for Bradford to score, and if I had not traded out at poor value, I already would have had a treble figure green screen!

At the same time, a peculiar thing was happening. Last year, two tries to a team would have sent the draw price out to 40. Instead, it had contracted to 20. Now yes, I know that Bradford were the underdogs and therefore the draw contracting may make sense but that’s not how the draw works in RL and I continued to lay the hell out of the draw for the first half, only to reach, at Half Time, a four figure liability on the draw which was trading at the ridiculous odds of 15!

My aversion to red meant that I opted to equalise my book (which by now was just in three figures thanks to some momentum trades). And that was a decision that still irritates me as much as it did then. The fact is, 14 was ridiculous value; almost as ridiculous as the Bulls being up by ten and trading at 2!

Now, I do have a good understanding of Rugby League and am able to spot value, and this was so obvious that everyone could have seen it. However, my aversion to position taking meant that I watched as it went down to 1.08 (The draw shot out to 30+ at this time) when it became value to oppose Bradford who were tiring.

However, I declined (probably due to my computer game mentality when trading although how many times have 1.0s been overturned in RL!) but did eventually lay Leeds at 1.2 only…. To equalise at 1.3!

Anyway, the game went on to finish 20-20, the first draw of the season, and despite making a catalogue of errors, I somehow managed to earn £200 from the game. However, this was more from luck than any skill.

I say that, but it was important to note the increased liquidity flying around in this game which helps me. Last year, I was able to be so successful thanks to spotting value from events and being able to sell them on once the market realised. This produced a very heavy trading style, but one that minimised risk. However, the awful in play liquidity this year and the seeming rise in fast fingers (Or Virgin TV getting slower) has made this impossible. I did however, manage to improvise a variation and that was what helped me to make the profit I did.

And if there is one part of this piece that you should read as a RL trader, it is this.

Previously, I have advocated backing the draw. I now wish to retract this position. Las year, the draw was so easy to trade. You could get ridiculous prices which you could then trade out of as the side behind made their comeback. I remember Saints v Wakefield from last year as an example where I backed the draw at 40 on 78 minutes in a 2 point game. Leeds v Warrington is another where I backed the draw at 70 after 2 minutes. This year, the draw is starting around 25 and reaching ridiculous lows at Half Time.

Now, I do not want to advocate backing 1.04s, but this was the first draw in Super League after 56 games, and it is not so much the starting price I have a problem with, but rather the Half Time price. 15? That is absurd. It is so ridiculous it can only be fairly described by words that have yet to be discovered. Yes, the draw did come in this time, but where is the value?

The other salient point to raise here is that imagine what would happen if Leeds had started to come back. It would be very rare for the draw to be below 10 with 20 minutes to go, and there is a strong chance that you could profit from backing the draw later, and even if you needed to buy it back later, the odds are you probably could do at odds not too much lower than the Half Time price.

I have no idea why the draw has shifted so spectacularly from being something that is so backable to something that should be laid. Are too many people spotting the opportunity and the theory but not appreciating the odds? Or is this a reaction to the RU season where low scores are more popular and therefore the fact that RL sees so many shifts thanks to the number of tries not being factored in? I don’t know, but what I do know is the draw has gone from being my biggest green to my smallest green.

Anyway, armed with this knowledge but with my throat feeling worse than ever, I moved onto Friday’s doubleheader.

Only for the draw to return to its 2009 form in Hull v Hull KR and shoot out to the high 40s as Hull KR built an early 12-0 lead. Yet, they too were underdogs like Bradford although be it more marginal underdogs.

Heavily in profit, I was more than willing to accommodate these odds and felt that they would come back in. Only, to trade out at 28 despite the draw then resembling a one way train to 8 and then back out to 1000. Again, I can only blame my computer game mentality of looking to secure a “win” and despite such awful trading; I did manage to earn £60.

The final game was Saints v Wigan and by this time I was starting to feel worse than ever. Now, I had managed to catch some draw at 30+ in the morning and yet again, knew the direction of the draw… Only to trade out at 28 pre match despite it going to 25 and then being a one way train in the first half!

At times like that, I really do bother why I wonder trading. If I am so risk averse to make trades like that just to “win” well, it’s ridiculous.

Not as ridiculous as the draw however, which was 20 at Half Time! Before sense prevailed and it drifted to 28 which whilst still too short, was approaching reasonableness and by this time, I was satisfied with a profit of around £80.

At this time, Wigan were in the 1.1s and were a definite lay, only my risk averse nature and not wanting to lose any of my earnings from the first half, prevented me from jumping on.

Saints’ comeback brought the draw into single figures for the fourth time in four games and some more trades did allow me to reach my three figure goal. Only, and I’m not too sure what happened next, but I crawled on Saints and then just made a series of abysmal decisions to eventually pull my profit down to £80 but I did climb back to £90.

Either way, I had “lost £30” and it wasn’t even as if I could console myself by saying that I had wanted to lay a big favourite. If anything, the value was with Wigan at above evens!

Although, after 4 games, I was willing to cut myself some slack for the first time ever and blamed it on tiredness / illness and decided to have a quick sleep before waking up to see if anything interested me in play in the evening games.

Which were a complete disaster!

Firstly, I overslept, did not check the team news and placed a lay of Huddersfield pre match and then compounded that by clicking the wrong price in play! I only ended up losing £20 but it was a ridiculous loss whilst the Castleford v Wakefield game is still confusing me.

At 6 – 6, someone placed a lay of £900 at odds of around 5 on Castleford. I regularly follow the non SKY games to see if any value appears and whilst some does on occasions, never have I seen anyone willing to risk £3,600 before!

After that, Castleford sounded like they capitulated as Wakefield went onto an easy victory. I had placed £25 which whilst understandable is in total contradiction to my willingness to take risks when I either have green on the market or the game is on SKY. (my trading style will usually produce some profits for comebacks)

I’ve blogged about it before but if I continue to make such stupid and irrational decisions then the trading ability I have developed and my natural ability to read games will all go to waste.

And it was this that had me so annoyed at the end of the day as well as having ended the day on three successive losses as I went from having £400 profit at one stage to ending up £325 which is still a great amount but the overall losses are really irksome. £75 is a lot of money and it has been wasted wholly unnecessarily. However, if I had started off £75 down but come back to earn a total of £325, then I feel my view on the past 24 hours may be completely different.

So that’s my review of the past 29 hours. Sorry if things seemed to get rather short at the end but I started writing this at 9.30 PM. It’s now 11 PM and I’m desperate for some sleep before waking up for Qualifying for the Malaysian Grand Prix tomorrow.

I don’t make predictions in Formula 1, but what I will say is Jenson Button and Felipe Massa look great value being available in the 20s whilst their teammates are only 7s! Both have a 1-1 qualifying record with their teammates this year and I can’t explain the difference at all.

I may look to edit / tidy this up tomorrow but it is always useful to write immediately after events to capture raw emotions and the one thing that shines through is my risk averse nature needs to be overhauled. For example, if Castleford had scored the next try, I still would have probably looked to lay off at poor value to avoid red.

As always, any comments / feedback will be hugely appreciated and I will respond to the comments on the previous post tomorrow, so long as I am not feeling so rubbish!

Still here... Barely!

2010-03-30T00:07:00.002+01:00

Just a quick update to acknowledge my continued existence despite the fact that I haven't updated the blog for ages!

To keep a potentially long story as short as possible, I have been pre-occupied with some personal issues (which have hopefully now been fully resolved) and have also had to move locations due to my job. And not only that, but since moving (Which was designed to increase my free time and cut back on travelling!) I've only actually been home from the day job before 6 PM once. And that was to prepare for an interview! Pretty crazy considering I leave at 7.30 AM most mornings and now live within a fifteen minute walk as opposed to a 75 minute train journey. Still, as most people have said, it is good to see me applying myself to something beyond trading!

So, a quick update on my trading can be summed in a popular board game from the 1990s. Frustration!

Yes, I am making a profit which is very impressive but I am way behind on the net scoreboard as a result of my risk averse nature shining through together with my computer game mentality of treating green as victory.

I've not had as much time to devote to my trading (Thanks to the above and a social life has also proved far more difficult to accomodate) but the two weekends which I have blocked out for trading recently have produced excellent results, largely thanks to Formula 1 which is quickly becoming my favoured trading sport. (Averaging a profit of c. £300 per weekend.)

As for the Rugby League, I have definitely not had enough time to study the games this year. Whereas last year I would watch copious game film, this year I have hardly watched any extra games and have also been focused more on the markets dealing with very poor in play liquidity. (Ironically, when I have sat back I have traded much better.)

So, whilst I have been struggling relatively in the keys to watch out for, it is fair to say that my general strategy continues to work very well with an incredible 5 1.1 and below overturns in SKY games since I moved at the back end of February, which unsurprisingly, I have not made the most of.

Also, I have very kindly been granted a Rugby forum over at The Geek's Toy Forums. I have previously mentioned how valuable a resource I find both the application and the forum although at the moment, I am pretty much talking to myself over there so feel free to drop by with any thoughts / questions / ideas. As with comments, they are massively appreciated given that trading can be an isolatory event and one that very few of my friends are capable of comprehending well enough to discuss, other than requesting I buy more beers!

Anyway, just a quick alcohol induced post for now. I'll hope to go into further detail on the past two months trading shortly with a massive four days to rest and do precious little coming up beginning Friday. Although 5 SKY RL games and a Grand Prix weekend will keep me occupied!

Tough Going

2010-02-13T15:52:00.000Z

For someone who backs outsiders, it is especially galling when an outsider wins and you haven’t backed it and that is exactly what happened when Crusaders defeated Salford last night. It also throws into question whether my “success” in assessing RL matches is more down to the general theory of backing the away underdog as opposed to assessing the teams.

I thought Salford would over achieve this season but after two games the pressure already seems to be on Shaun McRae. One look at the Salford side shows that they are a young and inexperienced side and you have to wonder whether this is the main reason for their struggles. The return of Mark Henry and Willie Talau may help the Reds, and let’s not forget that Salford had a similarly poor start last year before going on to defeat Saints and Leeds but the Reds already look to be rivalling Crusaders for the Wooden spoon, although I would think that the real value would lie in Harlequins who have looked equally as poor but are almost three times as long!

I also managed to get the other two games wrong. Hull defeated Huddersfield in a game that I considered to be a coin toss although the injury to Brett Hodgson did give Hull the advantage although at 2/1, Huddersfield still seem overpriced to me despite the eventual result. Also peculiar was the draw which usually trades in the mid 20s for non in play games but reached 40 before kick off which I also thought represented value despite not coming in.

Of greater concern was the Wigan v Hull KR match. Not because I thought that the value lied with Hull KR (As per any SKY game, I believe the real value comes in play and so use minimal stakes pre match and increase during the game – the 1.1 rule came in handy here) but because of the way the markets operated in play.

As per any in play event, you will encounter fast picture people but in the past, they have usually left “value” prices at non try events such as knock ons, penalties etc… However, I found myself knowing what would happen before seeing it because the market seemed incredibly ahead of my television which is making the markets impossible to trade in my usual manner.

However, the markets do seem unusually thin during the games at the moment so maybe the problem is not that the fast picture people are spreading their net wider, but that there are less traders taking a position. Either way, as long as the markets continue like this, then it is effecting my trading as I usually like to trade cautiously before imposing my position on my book whereas at the moment, I am having to do the latter first.

Maybe I shall have to display more confidence in my initial positions!

So on to tonight’s game and last night re-inforced my thoughts that it is hard to establish accurate opinions at ths stage without seeing the teams in action so far this season.

However, both Warrington and Castleford are fairly settled from their 2009 squads and I do feel that the maket might be overreacting to Castleford’s impressive win last week and home advantage. However, whilst I do think Tony Smith has removed Warrington’s inconsistency, I still cannot bring myself to fully recommend them at 1.5! Nonetheless, the value should emerge in play although if it is anything like last Saturday’s game, you may struggle to get matched. Here’s hoping to increased liquidity going forward!

Super League Round 2 - Quick thoughts

2010-02-11T22:42:00.001Z

I like to get some brief thoughts down on here for the upcoming Super League games so here’s how I see things. I’m only going to do the Friday games now as it has been a very long day.

Wigan v Hull KR

As this is the SKY game, I would stress the point that you are more likely to find value in play so I would avoid overstaking to begin with. That said, I disagree with the opening odds. For mine, Wigan should be more like a 1.6 shot. I’m notoriously abysmal at predicting pre match prices, however!

This is the second game of the season for both sides, and neither have any new injury concerns. Both teams played inferior opposition last week and so you probably can’t read too much into their performances.

One thing I have noticed is that the markets have a tendency to hop onto bandwagons but also like to support long held views. Wigan have a reputation for being a “big side” despite not living upto this in the recent past – indeed their price nearly always seems lower (in my eyes) than what it should be.

So, why do I consider Wigan underpriced? Well, I agree that they should be favourites. Wigan can probably expect a Top 4 berth at the end of the year and this is the games that they need to win. However, 1.3s appears too low a price for two teams who are fairly well matched. I consider Wigan to be overly reliant upon Sam Tomkins for creativity and whilst he has been supplied with an improved pack in 2010 (Stuart Fielden seems to be as keen as ever, Iafeta has lost weight and Paul Prescott has a year’s more experience) and a master organiser in Paul Deacon who can take some pressure off him, I would always worry about a second season player being the hub of your team.

Hull KR are no mugs either. I do think they will struggle to replicate their 2009 success and they are light going forward but having reviewed the stats from their opening match, I think I may have overestimated their weakness in this area. Admittedly it was only against Salford, but Hull KR’s starting props set a good platform averaging over 8 m per carry whilst their interchange props averaged over 7 m. Not outstanding, and you can expect that to decrease against a better defence, but when you factor in the kicking game of Michael Dobson and Paul Cooke, I start to believe that KR are capable of matching Wigan in a territorial battle.

On account of the above and my previously expressed views on the fact that early in the season, so much is unknown and that RL can be a random game at the best of times, 1.3 is too short an opening price but I wouldn’t dive in. A good start from Wigan will see their price drop massively and allow you time to analyse the game on the field itself.

Salford v Crusaders

Crusaders have scored two tries this year and have gained fewer metres than Warrington despite having played twice as long. I like underdogs and you can never rule Celtic out, but their odds look very skinny.

Crusaders will improve as the year goes on, but I would be surprised if they found the cohesion that they have lacked so far this season against a Salford side, who appear to be largely underrated. I really like the Salford halfback pairing, especially with Daniel Holdsworth offering guidance from loose forward although the Reds’ backline is very green and lightweight.

Backing 1.3s will only lead you to the poorhouse so if you are going to cover anything, I would look at Celtic, but I would only advise very small stakes.

Hull v Huddersfield

Heads or Tails? That’s how I see this one. And given that one side is a widely available 6/4, I know who I am backing.

I was very impressed by Hull last week, but I was equally impressed by Huddersfield. Both have the makings of solid sides who will be impressive in 2010.

I just think the market has over-reacted to a good display against a very poor Saints side and are factoring in home advantage too much. Yes, Hull do have better go forward and have more experience in the halves, but Huddersfield’s backs look far stronger than Hull’s and they aren’t exactly poor in the halves and forwards.

This one really could go either way; no result would surprise me but given the odds available, I know where I think the value lies.

The Superbowl - The case for not trading out.

2010-02-08T20:13:00.001Z

For various reasons, I had not really got involved in trading NFL as much this season as I had hoped to although I more than made up for this on Sunday night. I have given myself a lot of criticism recently over my trading performance in Rugby League, but it would be very difficult for me to offer any criticism of my Superbowl trading.

Before the game, I held a very strong opinion that New Orleans would win the Superbowl. Their starting price in the 2.7s not only seemed generous to me but also seemed to be extraordinarily high for trading purposes although I was keen not to overcommit given that the market could collapse if Indy started quickly. So, I regularly fed £10 lays of Indy into the system until the point where I would reach my maximum liability.

In addition to this, I had placed a £50 lay on Peyton Manning as MVP. Now, of all sportspeople worldwide, I would assert that I believe Manning to be the best of the very best and believe that his work ethic and cerebral approach sets a superb example for all he acts as a role model for. However, I expected Manning and the Colts to under-perform. Manning is so great at processing information quickly that I considered the two week delay would be a disadvantage as the extra time to gameplan would not help the Colts as much as it would the Saints, whilst I also could not get away from Manning’s previous struggles in big games.

As it was, the Colts did get a flying start and at 10-0 up, could readily be laid at around 1.25 although my drip feed strategy ensured that my average laying odds were significantly higher than that! However, on account of my maximum loss, I opted not to invest in the Saints any further.

The turning point of the game though when Pierre Garcon dropped a regulation third down pass when Garcon had a lot of space ahead of him and could have turned the play into a big game. What happened next was the result of several unprecedented but courageous decisions which history will prove to be the correct calls but were decisions that I supported and even predicted!

The first was the decision to go for it on 4th and Goal from the 1 with two minutes to go in the first half. Not only was this the correct call, but in an ironic twist of fate, I believe the Saints’ failure turned out to be the best result. By backing the Colts up so much, they neutralised the Colts’ two minute offence which scored 14 points against Baltimore and 7 against New York. So, rather than losing the two minute game 7 – 3 or tying it 7 – 7 by getting the ball back and kicking a field goal, the Saints won this encounter 3 – 0 which really was an exceptional result.

The only issue in all this was the Colts’ decision to run on 3rd and 1 which was a huge error but even if the Colts had converted here, New Orleans’ decision to go for it would have still been the correct one and the failure would have rested upon the run D of the Saints.

And then there was the onside kick. The play that more than any other will define the coaching career of Sean Payton. However, this was not a gambling play but a carefully considered decision and one that had little downside. Given how Peyton Manning can tear a defence apart in the first drive of the second half, it was almost irrelevant whether he first fielded the ball on the Saints’ 40 or his own 20 whilst the chance of denying Manning an all important possession was one that could not be turned down.

After all that, there was never any doubt in my mind that the Saints would win and from a trading prospective, this was the ideal game to show how I wish to trade.

At this point, I could have locked into a nice profit and left the market happy and profitable. However, I didn’t. Until the Saints went two scores up, I considered the market to be out of line with the odds as I perceived them to be. Therefore, I didn’t trade out but rather sat on my position. Then, after the interception of Manning, I considered 1.02 and 1.03 to be a generous laying price and was able to equalise my book for a very nice profit of between £200 and £300.

That is how I perceive my “sports” trading should be. If I identify value, the key is not to achieve green but to rather profit from the investment. By all means, give away 2 or 3 ticks of value; especially when eliminating red but I should not look to green up simply for the sake of green. This is not like how I trade the Correct Score market on football where I take no view and therefore should always look primarily to achieve green but rather I should take advantage of any knowledge I have about the sport and remain true to my convictions. Once I do that, the profit should follow.

The irony in this is that I achieved this in a sport where my knowledge is substantially less than it is in Rugby League but what if that is not irony but the crux of the issue. Regular readers will be well aware of my tendency to be overly harsh on myself and people who know me on a more personal level will be well aware of my poor reaction to any type of “pressure”. Maybe, by advocating certain selections and by holding these views, I am in fact placing perceived pressure on myself to be correct, and therefore, as opposed to being able to sit back, I look for any possible method to justify my initial opinion.

Of course, that’s complete rubbish but that doesn’t mean it is not true but the real irony in all this is that when I advocate these selections, I am not advocating them with any planned trade out but rather doing so in a general sense so regardless of my Profit and Loss, the desire to be correct will emerge only from the end result of the game, further negating the need to trade out early.

And if a blog is designed to be used to allow you to develop trading strategies and to think through your approach, I consider that the above could be the epitome of what I want to achieve through the posts that make up my blog. Now, only if I can stick to it!

A quick update and how do you solve a problem like St Helens

2010-02-07T22:38:00.000Z

A rather quiet today on the trading front where the odds of all three games at kick off meant that I would want an initial small stake on the underdog although in all cases the outsider did not reach the odds that I would have expected. As it was, thanks to pre match trades in Wakefield and Warrington, I ended up with a very small profit in those games despite having greater green on the losers whilst the Salford v Hull KR game saw a small loss which was largely though in play lays of Hull KR at 1.1 (12 – 6) and 1.05 (18 – 6) which I’d be happy to take on every day of the week.

So, despite a losing day, I actually feel far more up beat than yesterday. I feel that performance will produce profits and not the other way round. So, whilst I felt I traded abysmally on Friday and Saturday, I actually felt that I traded well today and feel confident in asserting that making such judgements in the future should lead to nice profits.

I also continued my theme of trading the draw in Rugby Union and ended up with a small profit from the two televised games today although once again I ended up keeping a large green on the draw which amounted to nothing in the end!

So given that the post so far has been very short and as I am merely waiting for the Superbowl to begin given my decision to avoid Dancing On Ice, I thought I might take this opportunity to post on the problems that I feel St Helens are likely to encounter this season.

Now, I could write enough on this to crash my computer so I will try to keep it brief.

Saints’ problems, for mine, start with the midfield combination that Mick Potter is looking to use in 2010 in Kyle Eastmond and Leon Pryce. In Rugby League, nearly everything will go through your halfbacks and when you lack a controlling influence there, you shall struggle. It is very difficult for me to recall a successful side who lacked a chief organiser. Of course, that is not all you need but it would be like preparing a roast dinner but not including a meat dish. (Or meat substitute for vegetarians.)

Whilst both Eastmond and Pryce have exceptional ability and dynamic skills, neither is cut out for the organisational role. More are creative runners who will do their damage by taking on the line, albeit in different ways. The irony in all this is that Leon Pryce came to St Helens to assume the stand off role because he wanted greater responsibility. However, Saints fans will struggle to recall one game which Pryce has directly influenced in his time at Saints. He has had some exceptional performances, but these have come off the back of other players laying the foundation. Without that, he sinks quicker than quicksand and his otherwise poor effort will only stand out like a sore thumb in such a team.

Kyle Eastmond is one of the greatest natural talents to emerge in Rugby League in a long time, but like such naturally gifted players they have never really been tested on their way up to the game. Being such a fantastic athlete, Eastmond has always been able to rely on his physical skills to influence a game as opposed to being forced to develop the mental side of his game. More than any other young player in Super League, Eastmond has the ability to make your jaw drop, but that is not enough for a number 7. Especially one who is being asked to exert a controlling influence.

If you look at the other young talents at halfback in Super League, you will notice that Richie Myler has been paired with Lee Briers, who is one of the most intelligent players in the game. Sam Tomkins has Thomas Leuluai who can alleviate pressure from him and Wigan have also made an excellent signing in Paul Deacon, whose experience will greatly assist Tomkins in avoiding the second season syndrome.

Even Stefan Ratchford has the fortune of playing alongside Matty Smith, whilst inexperienced and raw himself, and Daniel Holdsworth who will play a more controlling game allowing Ratchford the freedom to express his natural ability.

In so many ways, Eastmond is so similar to Sean Long when he arrived at St Helens. A terrific athlete and outstanding broken field runner, but he could not control a game. However, he did not need to as Long was often paired with Tommy Martyn who would play this role, and he would also benefit from Keiron Cunningham and Paul Sculthorpe at the peak of their careers. Long would go on to become one of the best controlling halfbacks in Super League, and there is no reason why Eastmond won’t. However, this will take time and will also require help from his team mates.

Of course, St. Helens have a natural organiser who is not only a member of the first team squad but who is a regular member of the starting thirteen. A player who has displayed huge potential previously but has never quite managed to convert this into ability. Step forward Jon Wilkin.

It is no co-incidence that Saints’ best performance of 2009 came when Jon Wilkin was forced into playing 7 and assuming the controlling role. Like Lee Briers, Wilkin is one of the most naturally intelligent players on the pitch and it is the fact that Wilkin has never been able to assume this role that I believe has lead to him never fulfilling his potential. At the moment Wilkin is used as a wide player who gets through a lot of work and makes some good runs. But that’s like hiring Hugh Grant for a film and asking him to portray an American. Yes it can be done, but why waste what he is best at.

Wilkin has invariably been compared to Paul Sculthorpe throughout his career and whilst he lacks the athletic ability that Sculthorpe possessed, Wilkin is as naturally creative a player as Sculthorpe ever was and is the man who could step into the organising role and save Saints’ season.

Meanwhile, if Saints wanted to keep Wilkin in his current role, they could do a lot worse than giving youngster Gary Wheeler a run at halfback. Wheeler is a far more intelligent player than Eastmond who has looked at home whenever he has played in Super League. However, Wheeler has suffered from injuries and has never been given a run in the middle of the park.

Even if Saints solve this problem however, they still have several others that they need to address; one of which being the three quarter line. Over Super League, Saints have had some of the best attacking three quarters. From the Paul Newlove and Anthony Sullivan combination to recent Australian signings Matt Gidley and Jamie Lyon, the Saints have not lacked for strike power out wide. Until now.

The current three quarter line of Ade Gardner, Gidley, Sia Soliola and Francis Meli possesses a world of size but a dearth of speed, finishing ability and with the exception of Gidley, creativity. Soliola is a second rower in all but name but so were Lee Gilmour and Willie Talau and that never hurt Saints, but at the time, there was a lot more creative outlets on show. Ade Gardner is another who has not come close to realising the potential he showed as a youngster. A solid Super League player he is, but it would be a stretch to label him as anything more whilst Francis Meli gets through a lot of work but can be a liability in defence and does not possess natural finishing ability.

Added into Saints’ creative problems in the middle of the park and you can see why the most attacking team in Super League history is now finding themselves in a slump going forward. However, the proposed solution to the halfback problems could also help to solve the lack of firepower out wide.

By freeing up Leon Pryce from the centre of the pitch, you would be able to move a strike player who can take on the line out wide whilst still allowing Pryce the freedom to showcase his skills. Of course, Pryce has previously expressed displeasure at playing out wide and this showed in Saturday’s game when Saints moved James Roby to the wing as opposed to Pryce, who has played for Great Britain as a winger previously. So, such a strategy would potentially result in an unhappy player although hopefully a more mature Pryce would be willing to accept such a move for the benefit of the team.

Those changes might help Saints to score more than 20 points in a match, something they have managed just twice since July 2009! Issues would still remain however, including how you fit three hookers into a side (something I admit to having no idea on!) and the biggest problem of all, Mick Potter.

Potter did a fantastic job at Catalans but has arrived at an entirely different creature in St Helens and the tactics he appears to have learned at Bradford and implemented in Catalans have not gone down so well with the Saints fans. Potter appears to prefer a naturally conservative form of attack and relies more upon brute force than individual brilliance. This style of rugby goes against what Saints have come to expect and coupled with a lack of silverware last season and Potter’s rather dour outer personality has already lead to some fans calling for his head – an overreaction not usually seen on the terraces of Knowsley Road. However, this is the squad that Potter has put together and without a major upturn in performance levels, the fans might get their wish sooner than expected.

Red is my friend - Green is my enemy

2010-02-06T20:56:00.000Z

The above title is possibly the strangest you shall see in a trader’s blog but it is the most accurate representation of my current feelings that does not involve swear words. Nights like tonight make me want to give up trading. Allow me to explain.

I earned £12 on the Hull v Saints match tonight. £12. From a match where I tipped a team who started at 4.5. Yet again, I employed the computer game mentality of avoiding losses but in doing so only proceeded to overlook the part of my brain that analysed the game.

I have already explained why I saw value in this game. The weather conditions only served to increase the value I saw and at one point, I did have a substantial red on St Helens. However, the market was very very illiquid on account of the fact that the game clashed with the 6 Nations. (And judging by that market, there were enough ill advised bets to justify such a switch for general rugby traders.)

So, in my panic and in the absence of my usual trading style working (submitting several bets based upon various events – it failed because there was no money in the market) I closed my position for a tiny green. Why? I have a substantial bank and have already mentioned the fact that any monies earned are purely “profit”.

It can only be my complete and utter desire to avoid failure in any walk of life. My quest for perfectionism which turns a fear of failure into an absence of action.

What I need to recognise is that in all this, green is my enemy. It is the friend that is the bad influence. Red? Red would be the true friend. The one that you probably don’t want to admit to liking. The one that isn’t cool but the one who will be there for you when you need him. Part of the reason I became attracted to trading was the fact that my risk averse nature needed overhauling. Rather than doing that, it appears to have cemented the risk averse nature. (I am a person who at 21, started a pension and invested in Gilts to avoid the Stock Market…)

And of course, the more errors I make like this the more I beat myself up and the more risk averse I become. A self perpetuating motion of avoiding failure which in fact only achieves avoidance of success.

I guess that’s enough psycho-babble for now though! Just one thought though. I have turned down Castleford at 12 last night and Hull at 4.5 tonight. I’ll allow you to count the potential loss of earnings. (And that does not include other successful positions that I have recommended in the past eight days.) Maybe my future lies not in trading but in offering advice. After all, those who can’t, teach!

I would love to hear from anyone who might be able to offer any advice which would help in rectifying the fact that I trade out too soon. Of course, the Castleford and Hull victories were extreme examples of my problem. (Usually, I can minimise the issue by making successful trades and apportioning the green in a manner that reflects the game but in these two games, the in play markets disallowed this.)

As for the game itself. Hull’s forward pack was as impressive as advertised and whilst Saints did suffer from the fact that three of their three quarter line either missed the game or went off injured early, they suffered from a complete lack of direction. Kyle Eastmond and Leon Pryce cannot play together. Like Sean Long in his early career, Eastmond needs a controlling influence which Leon Pryce is not. Of course, Saints already have someone like that in their match day seventeen, Jon Wilkin, but Mick Potter continues to ignore this despite the fact that when Wilkin was asked to control the game, Saints managed to beat Leeds at Leeds.

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s games, and I see no stand out value but I do know which side I would want to be on in all games.

In Wakefield v Catalans, I consider the away side underrated. I would have been all over them but for an injury to key man Thomas Bosc which makes me less keen on them given that everything is likely to go through Bosc now that Greg Bird has left. However, Catalans have other impressive players and their sheer physicality could cause problems for Wakefield, especially if the Wildcats go with only three props again which is likely given the absence of Richard Moore through suspension. I consider that the market over-estimates Wakefield’s win last week (although the match fitness gained last week could be key) and the home factor but I would advise against piling on given Bosc’s injury.

Salford v Hull KR is another match up between two teams where I am higher on the underdog than most and lower on the favourite than most. I would ideally prefer to watch the game and validate my thoughts but at anything around 5/1, Salford are good value to get involved in whilst the value obviously increases the more Salford drift.

Hull KR for mine could struggle this year given the lack of go forward. Joel Clinton will be a very important addition and his absence is therefore a big blow for the Robins. Meanwhile, Salford have the task of bedding in several new players which could hamper their start but they have some very talented individuals including Stefan Ratchford, who I feel outshone Richie Myler last year. The Reds’ backline is very young and inexperienced but could cause some problems, especially if Ashley Gibson can realise some of the potential he showed before suffering some unfortunate injuries.

Apologies to the Red Red Robin who has posted some good comments recently!

Finally, Warrington v Harlequins seems to contain the least value, but surely all readers have noticed the trend by now which compels minimal involvement? Warrington have the strongest squad in the competition by my estimation and whilst Tony Smith has strived to remove their inconsistency, you can never be 100% certain with Warrington. As for Harlequins, the loss of Louie McCarthy Scarsbrook only serves to further weaken a light pack but the Quins did show good away form last year and after this week, you never know.

As usual, any comments would be greatly appreciated. Am I being too hard on myself and after timing too much or am I spot on? I endured a similarly difficult start last year (See posts from February / March) but such feelings subsided as the season went on. Maybe I just need a pre season too?

Even more furious

2010-02-05T22:48:00.001Z

Last year I won the Rugby League Tipping Competition on the Rugby forum on Betfair and did so largely due to my belief that favourites are massively overpriced when at home. So, when the corrected Leeds v Castleford odds were settled today, I knew that this was a great opportunity. Castleford could be backed at 12.5 whereas I would make them somewhere between a 6 – 9 shot.

Irrespective of the initial stake placed, I then proceeded to do the one thing I had vowed not to do this year. Accept crazy odds to avoid red. So, from my initial pre match position, I managed to earn merely one third of my potential profit. That was beyond ridiculous and summed up tonight’s trading which once again saw my emotions take control of my brain. And of course, next time I look to back an away underdog and let it run, you can be as sure as anything, that it won’t come in. The worst of both worlds.

And in a twist of fate that is beyond ironic, I managed to cost myself £21 by getting the markets mixed up and backing Crusaders in their game. To the person who had left a lay of Crusaders up at 9.2, enjoy my money. You thoroughly deserve it. (That may sound sarcastic, but it is not intended to be.)

So I am in a position tonight whereby I am thoroughly annoyed with my trading performance, although pleased that I was able to call the Bradford v Huddersfield game rather successfully.

Before the game, I stated that I thought Huddersfield were too large. A position that is very uncommon for me as usually I think home favourites are backed too short. At one point Huddersfield were as low as 1.57 which was probably correct or maybe a bit low but drifting to 1.7 made them exceptional value and whilst I adopted a wait and see approach, I was able to profit from the return of the draw on LSD with 50 readily being available with the score at 0-0. Erm yeah. Good luck with that.

As you know my one big rule in first half trading is to oppose 1.1s and this strategy worked out very well tonight. However, I must say that I had expected Bradford to tire around this period but the Brett Hodgson mistake when attempting to score and the whistle of the referee gave Bradford renewed enthusiasm which saw them score two late tries in the first half to send the market out to 1.3.

At Half Time, I could have opted to take a level green of around £100 but instead opted to take around half this on Huddersfield, leaving £300 or so on Bradford. At 1.3 I considered Huddersfield marginally underpriced although their early scores brought them into a level which was not worth jumping on and so my position largely remained the same throughout the second half. Another ironic incident given my actions in the Leeds v Castleford game.

So all in all, a total profit of £100 from tonight’s work although I understandably feel that I am significantly behind on the “net scoreboard”. You only get so many gifts in a year and I feel I have wasted a couple this evening due to an abysmally constructed attitude towards trading.

In more positive news however, the markets felt the same as last year and I called the games well so I guess if that is to continue, then my trading performance should improve (this was after all the first “competitive” Super League Friday night of the year) so maybe I am being unduly harsh on myself. Truth is however, I always am!

I will want to watch the replay of the game after posting this but my initial thoughts are that the game went as expected. Huddersfield are a solid team who probably will offer the most consistent range of performances this year. Bradford are poor. They lack go forward. Their backs have very little pace and creativity and their Australian halfback pairing is disappointing. I expect Matt Orford to find his feet and play better as he becomes more comfortable, but Brett Kearney was every bit as poor as I expected. Maybe it is rust following a long lay off, but I don’t see anything in him at the moment which makes me think he can even be an upgrade from Ben Jeffries last year!

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s game (which hopefully I will trade better), I think the current market prices are right. The return of Sean Long is such a wild card but we know that Long produces his best performances in big games and there won’t be any bigger than this. I would probably favour Hull as like I am with Bradford, I am low on Saints who I feel have no organisational ability in the halves and a dearth of pace out wide although their forward pack looks impressive. Hull will take time to develop a comfort level with all their new signings, but it is hard to see them disappointing as greatly as they did last year. However, I would want to watch the opening to the game before making any predictions that I would need to rely on!

Time to go and calm down now and to work out how to improve on today for tomorrow. It is natural to make mistakes. It is just frustrating to make the same mistakes!

A quick look at Round 1

2010-02-04T22:10:00.001Z

For the reasons set out in the below post, my preview for the first round of Super League probably won’t be as detailed as usual but it always helps to get a few thoughts down so here goes.

The first round is always more unpredictable. Whilst it is relatively easy to analyse teams on paper, you can never be certain how they will actually perform.

Huddersfield v Bradford

As this is the SKY game, I feel the best opportunities will arise in play and so initial positions should be relatively small to begin with. Usually I prefer away underdogs but for mine, the value is with the home favourites here.

I’m really low on Bradford this year. They have a horrible three quarter line and only four recognised props in their squad; two of which are Danny Sculthorpe and Craig Kopczaz. The former is definitely out of this game and the latter is doubtful too. Add in the fact that their second rowers are more second rowers / centres than second rowers / props and I really think they could struggle to gain the yards. I also have a huge question mark hanging over Brett Kearney who missed all of last year with an ankle injury. Last year I was very high on Bradford but this year, I expect them to not make the Top 8.

Huddersfield look to be a solid outfit who have a very deep squad. I’m not sure they have the genuine talent to be a Top 4 team this year but equally they look very likely to finish in the 5th – 8th slots. They have made some shrewd new signings and with Kevin Brown back from injury, they should have a more attacking presence than they had at the back end of 2009 when they fell away badly.

However, this is the first real competitive match of Super League XV so it might be worthwhile to watch the game as much as to trade it to try to assess how things might play out.

Wigan v Crusaders

I would expect Wigan to finish 4th this season. Whilst they have only signed Paul Deacon to add to their 2009 squad, new coach Michael Maguire has seemingly given Wigan a lift in the off season and has improved the fitness of several key players which should help them as the season progresses. The key concern for Wigan will be avoiding the second season syndrome for star man Sam Tomkins. The experience of Paul Deacon should be hugely beneficial in avoiding this and giving Tomkins greater freedom to impose his considerable talent on games.

The Warriors should therefore be too strong for a Crusaders side who whilst impressing last week are clearly the weakest side in the league at the moment. However, anything at around 20/1 represents some value and whilst speculative, is a decent shout.

Leeds v Castleford

Leeds proved last week why they are the cream of the crop with their performance in the last 15 minutes and with Brent Webb and Jamie Peacock returning to the fold, the Rhinos should improve on last week’s showing.

However, Castleford Tigers are no mugs and 1.1 is a ridiculously low price. The Tigers are clear underdogs for the game and I expect them to finish 11th. However, they do have some genuine quality in the halves and pace in the backs. Whilst they have a thin squad and the strength in the forwards can be questioned, if the Tigers can play an expansive style at Headingley they could cause an upset.

I will post on the other games tomorrow. For now, I have a very nice e-mail to write to Betfair!

Furious

2010-02-04T20:03:00.001Z

Warning: The below post may contain strong language.

Usually I would look to post a preview of the weekend’s upcoming Rugby League but frankly, I feel too pissed off to do so.

I have mentioned before how I keep an eye on RL markets from Monday onwards and on this Monday, I noticed that there was already a large amount of money available to back Castleford at 15.5.

I thought this represented a good trading opportunity and therefore backed it. More money kept on appearing at these odds and I kept topping up. I had expected the market to possibly have Leeds as low as 1.1 and whilst it was definitely unusual to see such money early on, who am I to quibble. For all I know, Castleford’s squad could have been hit with Swine flu.

Of course, when someone started to lay my draw bets that I put up as an attempt to possibly green up, I began to get an idea that something weird was happening in the market. However, you don’t look a gift horse in the mouth and after checking that I was not misreading the team names, proceeded and by Tuesday evening, I had a very nice position which would enable me to fully green for £100 before the game kicked off once the draw market fully formed.

Today, Betfair voided the market as the market had been “malformed”. Instead of them listing Home, Away, Draw they had listed Home, Draw and Away. Clearly someone had not realised this and had been trying to take advantage of me by offering odds out of sync with the market.

However, for a company who regularly switch the order of teams in connection with odds, I fail to see how a market has been “malformed” when all the freaking possible options have been listed. If when they change the running order in Formula 1, and I get mistaken about which driver is on which line, can I claim that the market has been “malformed”?

The lines clearly displayed the possible options. The fact that someone did not realise this is the fault of the individual. (Or bot – more on that to come).

So why have Betfair voided the market? Frankly, I do not believe for one instance that they looked at the market, realised their error and decided to void it. As a company they have proven that fairness is not a key issue for them, and the commission on my winnings would be worth something! On a few occasions you see early market prices to be completely out of line, but as far as I’m aware they are not voided.

So why void this? The key issue here for me is that the Rugby League markets usually have no liquidity so early in the week. Look at this week’s games. They have around £10 matched but they all have an attempt to lay a short price favourite and to lay the draw at the same odds at around the same price that I backed Castleford at. This points to one thing. I was not betting against an illiterate user but rather a bot that had been misprogrammed. For that, I take no issue with taking prices. This bot was merely attempting to collect money at prices which it considered to be advantageous for itself. If it gets it wrong, it deserves to have to deal with the issue.

Now, if Betfair had e-mailed me to explain the situation, I probably would not have been bothered. If it was a genuine error, then fair enough. It is the fact that they unilaterally voided a market which they did not communicate to me which really pisses me off. Possibly an announcement on the forum confirming the error? No, they just voided it.

How can I rely on bets that I place in the future not being voided? How can I rely that when I take a price it will stand? For instance, last year during Warrington v Catalans, Catalans could be laid at 1.06 despite being 6 points behind with 10 minutes to go! In the future, will Betfair look to void such markets? Because again, this was clearly an error.

And what about errors I have made where I have typed the stake in the odds and vice versa. Can I expect these to be voided? And why not? If it is my responsibility to proof my bets before submission it is surely another user’s responsibility to proof their bets before submission.

I simply cannot understand this. So are Betfair seeding the markets? Or are they seeking to protect someone? Or am I hellbent on conspiracy theories unduly? The fact is, I’m honestly not concerned about the profit lost. It is rather the precedent that it sets that concerns me and the fact that this seems very unfair.

All in all, I find Betfair’s conduct disgraceful. Now, I know that the only place I can trade in play on Rugby League is Betfair so I won’t be cutting my nose off to spite my face. However, equally I do not feel that this can be let drop because of the precedent it may set.

So what do you the reader think? Is this an overreaction? Or do you think like me that this poses serious issues which need responding to?

During a Super League Game

2010-02-03T22:30:00.001Z

In my previous post, I outlined the rather unique way I consider pre match odds when trading Super League matches. Now, I will very briefly outline some of the easier to explain strategies I use during the match.

Now, this is just an overview. Obviously some of my trading strategies will be very difficult to explain and will depend upon the flow of the match as I see it and there will be very little point in outlining these. (I also don’t want to explain how I do things 100% - the market isn’t liquid enough to allow someone to copy my entire approach and leave a profit for me!) However, I shall outline some of the more general things to look for when trading a match without explaining how I attempt to read the game during the game because as anyone who has read the below post will know, it makes no sense!

Trading the draw was pretty much the first strategy I ever used. I started trading at around the time the Draw layer appeared. (Someone would push the draw out to 100+ for around £1,000 until there was a draw in the Salford v Celtic Crusaders 2008 Grand Final)

Now, trading the draw can involve using small stakes and yet be very profitable if you back first. The simple idea is that whilst the chance of a game ending up as a draw is small, the chance of the game being close enough to bring about a drop in the draw odds is relatively high. (I know that draw layers can consistently profit which does beg the question of who actually loses, but as we all know, everyone on Betfair wins anyway…) In two years, I can probably count on one hand the games that have caught the express to 1000. And, to be honest, most of these have been games where the draw strategy is clearly unavoidable.

So, you back the draw early on. What to do next is entirely up to you. You can either leave it until it reaches a point where you are happy to trade out to remove any liability, or you can look to consistently trade the draw throughout the game; taking advantage of price swings as the market overreacts to events and the relatively low liquidity available forces position takers to take up positions which are amenable to traders.

One position I have recently started to adopt is to look to lay the draw. The truth is, there are times where the draw odds can be too low and are profitable laying. Any game which sees a starting position of below 25 is definitely a long term laying proposition whilst I have also been interested in the differences in the market for a game that is level at Half Time or which sees a gap of 2 or 4 points. The fact is, if a game is level at HT, I don’t think the odds of a draw at FT are necessarily lower than if there is a gap of say 2 or 4 points. We are not dealing with football here where the result sees few changes. You can look to expect over 20 points on average in the second half of a RL game which should see points differentials increase. Even the most recent game, Leeds v Crusaders, which was scoreless between 41 and 60 minutes, saw the draw occasionally peak out to beyond the Half Time odds!

And whatever happens, I have never seen the draw be less than 10 after 60 minutes, which limits the potential liability involved.

Of course, the chance of the game ending up as a draw is low which raises the question of when to trade out. In the playoffs and the 4 Nations final, I took the position of letting my draw bets run but on the whole I would say this is unadvisable. (You have no idea of my reaction to the Wigan v Castleford playoff game when with 77 minutes gone, Castleford kicked to the corner and the ball just bounced into touch before Kirk Dixon got there. My £14,000 possible profit on the draw matched the colour of my face!) It depends on how you trade the game in general. The truth is I prefer to close my liability pretty quickly but to keep my green on the draw. That sounds somewhat of a contradiction but that works well with my trading style.

One other piece of information is what to do when the draw comes in. I can recall several draws being overturned last year. The 1.01 in Castleford v Leeds when I was sat in a pub without SKY not having a damn clue what was going on. Leigh v Featherstone(?) where 1.4 got turned over. Saints v Wakefield where 1.8 got turned over as Saints missed a late kick. Leeds v Warrington where the draw traded around 2.5 before getting turned over as I again sat in a pub clueless.

In situations like these, I advise to take the profit. I am a trader and when the draw comes in, I get out. However, when the draw is reliant upon a conversion being made, there tends to be several people like me who are too keen to get out and offer very appealing prices for gamblers to take a good punt.

The fact is, you can either join the draw train at the start or the end. However, if you jump on in the middle, you will probably find there is no door.

Finally, there is the whole issue of to what extent backing the draw covers the underdog but I don’t plan to go into this right now other than to say that I usually view the two as separate to begin with although if I have a large enough green on the draw in the second half, I will sometimes use this to justify having a lesser position on the underdog when the chances of a 1.01 train are higher.

Which brings me onto the next strategy and also relates to some of my points that I made yesterday.

Fundamentally, Rugby League is a game full of random events. You can be the best player in the world, but you will still drop a ball and miss a tackle. When that happens cannot be predicted but it will happen. For that reason, I will look to lay 1.0 shots in the first half (Possibly discounting Crusaders). Of course it won’t always come off but it will come off even in the most unlikely of situations. For every clear 1.0 lay (Warrington at 16-6 v Catalans in 2009) there is a 1.0 lay which looks so unlikely but comes in (Catalans 30-0 v Bradford in 2009) or an unlikely 1.0 lay which drifts to a very profitable price (Salford 18 – 0 v Celtic in 2009). Plus you will regularly run into the evening up of the penalty count!

It is easier to do so when you already have some green on the market, but it is something that should be done at all times. 1.0s in the second half aren’t as clear cut and cannot always be advised although at times there are definitely some great opportunities.

For that reason, I always advise laying handicap markets late on. Not only can anything happen, but to the vast majority of players, whether you win by 6 or by 10 is immaterial. They may sprint 100 metres to win a game, but to preserve a margin of victory in a game that has already been decided? It doesn’t always happen.

The final thing to discuss is definitely the most difficult but profitable trade and something I call the inverse tick. Markets on Betfair as a whole overreact to events and this is definitely true for tries and Rugby League has a special friend in this instance – the video referee.

Now, to get this correct is not easy and requires you to almost be at one with the market. However, if you place your lays correctly then not only can you get matched at the trough of the market, which might allow for a few ticks profit when it recovers but you run the hope of saying hello to the video referee.

When this happens however, there is one thing to remember and that is that the benefit of the doubt always goes to the attacking side. So, unless you can be 100% certain that it is no try, you are always more beneficial to trade out before the decision arrives especially as in some cases people who have matched your bet at the bottom can be anxious to look to limit their possible loss.

So there is a quick introduction to the world of rugby league and trading a match.

Obviously however, the key in all this is to study the market and study the game. I believe there is profit to be made in the RL markets and I know I started from scratch so it can be done. However, at the end of the day, it is only your observations and your application that can allow you to prosper.

Approaching a Super League game

2010-02-02T22:45:00.000Z

I have recently had a couple of queries as to how I approach trading a rugby league game and whilst long time readers of the blog will be more than familiar with the central tenets of my strategy, it won’t hurt me to lay out some of my more general theories in one post.

Or rather two posts for I believe there are two main building blocks in my trading; namely how I approach the match when considering what could happen and how I look to trade the match.

Quite unlike most people, the number one difference I believe in my trading style is that I largely disregard form. Now, I don’t use spreadsheets or have ratings or anything like that. I just compare the strengths of the expected playing line ups in conjunction with any general believes I hold.

Now this may sound like a direct contradiction – how can I disregard form but stay true to general thoughts. Well, I shall try to explain although it may not make much sense.

I do not have specific results, but I can recall the fact that Brian Noble coached teams tend to perform well against Leeds. I can happily recall all the times that Warrington sides have beaten favourites and lost to underdogs or choked away seemingly unassailable leads to St Helens! This is something that I have observed over the past 10 years. Now, is there anything to back this up? Possibly. Possibly not. The truth is that is a theory that I have picked up over time which is also true with a general approach.

Whereas I consider form to be something different. Form to me is just the result of a previous random event and I consider that the markets overreact to an individual instance. For example, let us consider that fifteen kicks are made to the St Helens backline in a game with five going to Paul Wellens, five going to Ade Gardner and five going to Francis Meli. Imagine that Wellens drops 3 and Gardner and Meli drop 1 each.

All of a sudden should we consider that Paul Wellens is now the weakest of the backline at catching kicks? And what can we use from this information? Well, we do not know the nature of the kick. What if the kicks to Gardner and Meli were directional kicks with no pressure whereas Wellens was dealing with high balls and pressure?

“Form” is just a previous result with insufficient data to fully explain it. On the pitch, I believe that each individual action is a random event within the game and this is why I will usually look to lay favourites. Although each incident may be one random event,
I will tend to place my trust in observations of a more long term duration and I will always prefer my feelings to any statistics.

I don’t care that Team X hasn’t won at Ground Y since Year Z. They will have never played Team A at time B and in any case, does not each unsuccessful attempt merely bring you closer to success? If you throw enough mud….

So, if you look at a game and consider team A to have the stronger outfit and to possess a much stronger forward pack which will allow their halfbacks to control the game, you should ignore that they lost last week and that they haven’t won on this date for fifteen years.

However, not everyone believes this and it is definitely true that a side who has won three consecutive games will have more natural confidence and higher morale than their opponents who have lost six in a row.

My assertion in this instance is that the market overrates this impact and for this I would like to refer you to two matches last year that I believe are the gold standard for my way of thinking.

Round 23 – Super League

Bradford 2/7
Quins 7/2

The next week – Super League

Quins 8/13
Bradford 15/8

There are plenty of other instances of this. For example, Hull made a terrific start last year winning five from six. As a result, despite then going on a very bad run to finish 12th, the market seemed almost blind to their struggles at first – just referencing their initial results to support a conclusion that they were a good side.

In the above example, a side who were large underdogs become favourites in one week because the game is being played at a different ground and because they won their game in the previous week. I don’t want to say I told you so…

Which leads me into my second point which concerns “home advantage”. Now, I agree that there is definitely some benefit in having home advantage although I don’t know if it is as big an advantage as considered. Some teams prefer the routine involved in an away game, some teams dislike the travelling. Some players prefer to play in front of their own fans whilst others may prefer to be the “villain”.

Of course, another reason for home advantage is the impact some consider it has on the referee. I don’t buy this and much prefer to believe that refereeing decisions are, if anything, consciously evened up as opposed to being influenced by the crowd although I largely believe that all refereeing decisions are neutral and of themselves random. After all, you could penalise every tackle and every play the ball if you were so inclined.

Whereas home advantage gives a major shift in the odds which I believe is disproportionate. Of course, in a new year, this theory may prove to be incorrect but if anyone wants to have a look at the maths from 2009…

So, as you might be able to guess, in Week 23, I believe that the market grossly underestimated Harlequins’ ability to win and looked to support them. In week 24, I believe they went too far and supported Bradford. I am not concerned with who will win the game as who I perceive to offer the greater value.

So, what am I trying to say? In one easy to understand paragraph?

Analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the teams playing. Account for long held opinions and consider the true prices of each team’s chance of victory. Refer to variables such as possible weather conditions and the referee when considering value. Finally, look out for form / reputation / home advantage considerations which may skewer the prices available.

Anyone still reading would probably think that this post is completely useless. That I am making it up as I go along. And you may be true. After al, I consider the number one most important trait to have will be the ability to constantly switch opinions during the game. However, up to now anyway, this strategy appears to work for me and whilst you may not be more informed now, hopefully my next post, on various trading methods during the game will be of more use.

January 2010 Review

2010-02-01T22:29:00.001Z

The start of a new year always offers a chance to start afresh and wipe the slate clean, that is a positive. What is a negative, or rather can be a negative, is how you react to what are usually unachievable objectives. Let’s face it, if it was easy enough to implement new ideas, you would not need to wait for a new year to begin to do so.

I approached January 2010 looking to produce a more conservative, considered approach and that started well. In the first ten days I traded 21 markets, producing a profit in 20. The only one that showed a loss was a £1.86 loss whilst trading the Valencia v Espanyol match odds market before kick off.

The other twenty markets included a mix of correct score and match odds trades on football, three rugby union markets which I will comment more on later and a penny profit on the cricket!

The end result of all this was a total profit of just over £300 and some consistent, well thought out trading plans.

Unfortunately, the next day was not so great. It started with a loss of £166 on Leicester v Ipswich thanks to a goal inside 30 seconds. At the time, I was unperturbed by this. As a 0-0 scalper, I have to accept the fact that sometimes a goal will be scored which will cause such a loss and what made this one so heavy was a drift in the pre match 0-0 odds from 11 to 12, seeing me jump on board at 11.5 and 12 whereas it is usually the case that 0-0 odds will come in or stand still.

However, in such circumstances, I should not look to double up. Rather than backing pre match at 12, what I should attempt to do is to insert a back into the market at kick off. I would have been able to place my lays and would have avoided being in the market for quite as long although obviously this is not a fail safe plan.

What really irritated me on my trading was a £86 loss on Dancing on Ice the same evening. In 2009, I had traded both X Factor and Britain’s Got Talent very well and felt I could do the same on Dancing on Ice. However, after this loss, combined with additional losses in Week 3 of £30 and in Week 4 of £40, I am starting to arrive at the conclusion that I am unable to trade this market.

The main reason for this is the vastly decreased liquidity. My preference is for short term trades. I do not like to sit on an open trade. This sees me cutting short my good trades too soon whilst allowing bad trades to run longer in the guise of value. For instance, this week I backed Heather, Emily, Hilary and Sharon in performance to be eliminated. The first two shortened whilst the latter two drifted. However, whilst I cut out my Emily and Heather trades too soon, I let my positions on Hilary and Sharon run believing them to be value. That they may be, but if you cut your position on some and not others, then you can end up with an unequal book and whilst in high liquidity markets, I find an ability to buy myself out of trouble, I cannot do this in lower liquidity markets. Therefore, I think that I will look to give this market a wide berth in future.

And as for the £86 loss in particular, the two most galling facts were the fact that I had opposed the “late money” which had proven to be amazingly wrong in the X Factor and that even had I attempted to get out of the trade, having an open position when the show begins is very daft. It is alright to point out that in every other show they had allowed 10 minutes recap before closing the phone lines, but I had no evidence that this would be the case this time and not taking this into account was very very poor.

So, £300 up after 10 days to £60 up after 11 days. I had climbed the stairs slowly and then fallen down nearly all of them again!

What happened next? Well, without going into too much detail some of the issues that I have referred to previously reappeared and my trading suffered, possessing more of the computer game mentality.

I had once again arrived at near the £300 mark when the most obvious display of my stupidity when trading appeared. Just a quick note, I had managed to get myself back to £300 in 7 days thanks to more football trading, a couple of rugby union trades and a well timed lay of Arizona against Green Bay as an insurance bet as a Cardinals fan!

The game where my next loss arrived was Bolton v Arsenal which saw 0-0 drift from 18.5 to 20 pre kick off and then a £5,000 layer look to disrupt the usual linear progression of 0-0 and as a result, mess up my book. My response was two fold. Firstly, the 0-0 odds were greatly inflated and I recognised that there was some value to be held in keeping 0-0 green. That was a perfectly appropriate thought process.

What was not was that after being able to remove any red at 12, I decided that wasn’t good enough and therefore looked to insert a near maximum back at 11.5 literally 30 seconds later. Now, I knew that I was at the front of the queue at 10.5 so that the risk was minimised some, but this was just a sheer stupid trade and even when I had the opportunity to scratch it, I refused to. And then the goal went in…

Sometimes, I can let personal issues affect my trading and this was the perfect example! I betrayed my process in anger and rightfully suffered.

Worse was still to come when the next day, I looked to trade the Newcastle v West Brom correct score market at half time. One particular score, 2-1, moved against me but as I knew that this would come in during the second half, I was content to let it run rather than accept a loss.

I then got distracted, and without even being able to decide whether to cancel, a very early goal was scored which saw me down over £200. Just a ridiculous trade which goes against everything I try to accomplish through my trades and a trade which actually saw me in negative figures for the month.

The next two weeks saw me get back into the green at around £100 although this also saw some very poor and ill considered trades actioned during this point although not with the stake level as the errors highlighted above before the return of Rugby League helped to lift me to nearly £400 profit for the month, before a Dancing on Ice error saw me end the month £347.01 up excluding the result of any trades on the Superbowl market.

So, what have I learned?

To start on a positive, I have displayed a clear ability to succeed. All the errors made have been identified and are easily rectified. I have shown the ability to profit consistently when I remove any external emotions from my trades and turn off the computer game mentality. This should also look to improve with the return of Rugby League.

Secondly, and I feel dirty for even mentioning this, I am starting to enjoy rugby union. For as long as I could think, I have hated the game and everything it stands for. However, recently, I have found it reasonable to watch and have been able to make consistent profits with all the nine games traded showing a profit. It also helps that I find it an incredibly rhythmic sport to trade and my draw trades do not even compel me to view the game.

I am not sure whether the internationals with increased liquidity and volatility are a good area to trade but I am confident that with some adjustments to draw trading such as in the second half where the score numbers affect the draw largely and sees liquidity fall off that this can be an increasingly profitable area for me.

Also, the return of Rugby League will hopefully see earnings grow. After all, this is the sport that I get and where I can best apportion any green earned through trades.

However, I must ensure that I retain full control of my emotions when trading. It is true that when the opposite is the case that I probably feel more inclined to trade but I cannot allow that to make poor trading decisions for me.

Above all, I should focus on why I trade which is for the challenge and the enjoyment as much as the profit and to look to decrease self imposed pressure wherever possible (The issue with being a complete perfectionist…!). I have already noticed a marked reluctance to trade football with rugby league back and I should look to continue to trade what brings about the most pleasure.

Total Results:

Cricket - £0.01
NFL -- £40.11
Rugby League -- £213.31
Rugby Union - £143.95
Soccer - £102.12
Special -- -£152.49

As usual, I am grateful for any comments after another incredibly lengthy attempt at some (As usual) heavy self-analysis!!!

Risk

2010-01-30T21:43:00.001Z

Risk is usually defined as “exposure to the chance of injury and loss”. Life is full of risks and part of our operation as human beings is to calculate the possibility of risk and act accordingly. Everything that we do is risky. Even sat here right now, typing these words, I leave myself open to risk, from the possibility that I could sprain a finger from typing to the possibility that my heart stops beating.

It hasn’t… Yet.

A successful trader, like a successful human, weighs up the risk involved in a situation before making a decision and acts accordingly. Of course, calculating risk is no guarantee of success in anything; there are always several other decisions and skills that you require to be successful, but calculating risk is an especially important trait which traders require.

My problem is not calculating risk. It is leaving myself open to it and then acting under these circumstances. (Something which probably applies in all facets of my life, but let’s not stray too far off topic here!)

I remember an early post from 2009 when I calculated my potential profit if I had stuck to what my original plan for the 2009 Super League season and compared it to the meagre success I had. I am definitely a “glass empty” person. In fact, it’s not even half empty… It’s just empty!

I am reminded of all this as I sit here now because, as per usual, I ran away from risk again today for no reason other than, well I don’t know!

All week, I had expressed surprise at the odds between Wakefield v Harlequins. I have plenty of anecdotal evidence that proves that my thoughts are not just lucky guesses but rather possibly indicative of an ability to succeed when calling games. Yet, when the time to roll the dice came, I recoiled and found reasons to doubt my initial viewpoint.

Shaking off the Rust

2010-01-29T23:46:00.002Z

A slow start whilst different combinations were considered on an unusual setting before stepping into another gear and racing home with ease. That is a sentence that equally describes mine and Leeds’ performance tonight.

If I’m honest, I expected this to be a 1.01 train. I never would have thought Leeds would have traded over 1.4 although I am obviously glad they did. As this is the only SKY game of the weekend, I will now attempt to break down how I approach trading a game. I have a particularly unique style which I probably would not recommend duplicating, but hopefully there will be food for thought here for you to develop your own strategies.

The first point is that trading the game does not begin at 7.30 PM or 8.00 PM of the game, but it’s probably something that I initially think about on Monday when I consider expected prices and load the markets into my mobile so I can keep an eye on them although there is hardly ever any activity before Thursday. If you are to trade successfully, you need to have an idea of how you think the game will go and I will often spend some time making notes on expected events and things to watch and react to.

My own views on the game tend to be hugely atypical so I have very limited success in predicting the expected prices but once they are out, usually on Thursday, I begin to compare these to my expectations and try to analyse the reason for the difference. This is nearly always due to the fact that I drastically underrate form and home advantage, but when I am particularly far out, I always try to work out “what I am missing”. Quite often, the answer is nothing but again, it never hurts to be completely sure.

I will usually look to begin to trade the market from Thursday onwards but only if I have particularly strong views. Now, I want to keep some edge, so I’m not going to say what exactly I look for, and I can get it wrong more than occasionally, but I will then look to regularly check on the market from then onwards.

Sometimes however, I don’t have the ability to take advantage of some great opportunities. For instance, yesterday evening just before midnight, £5,000 appeared to lay Leeds at 1.08 which I considered nothing short of a gift. Unfortunately, I was already on to my maximum overnight stake before then (You never know, Leeds may catch swine flu overnight!) and at lower odds but the fact is that whilst there tends to be small amounts traded prior to the day before the match, that does not mean there is no opportunity to profit. Leeds would reach 1.04 prior to kick off so the 1.08 backer could have been green for a very significant sum before the game even started!

One thing that does interest me in all this is my reaction to early success or failure. You would think that the presence of green would enable you to be bolder whereas I find that I am bolder when I am red. My thought on this is that I don’t want to lose what I have “earned” but this would be something I’d love to hear from other people on.

Anyway, despite missing out on the £5,000 windfall and despite forgetting to charge my phone overnight, which left me searching for a mobile phone charger at lunch time and unable to monitor my position in the morning, I managed to have my greatest ever pre match trading performance effectively being green to the tune of around £75 before the game even started. Obviously, low odds have their draw backs for trading, but the fact that so much money gets compressed into such a small odds variation does make it much easier to trade larger sums than usual with less risk, especially if you approach the market early on.

So, that is a brief run down of my particularly unique (and obsessive?!) pre match trading style.

Now, onto the game.

I had spent some time before hand setting up my new trading platform, but it is fair to say that I was definitely preoccupied throughout the first half with learning how to operate the new platform at full speed. I, in particular, loathe change and that was very obvious to begin with! So, I probably didn’t follow the game as much as I would usually but rather reacted to the market and the key events as opposed to reading the game. It was also the case that I was rather “rusty” and was trying to familiarise myself with the operation of the markets and the reading of the game! Even traders need a pre-season.

I plan on watching the game on replay before commenting too much but it seemed that the Rhinos were below par and that the conditions helped to level things for a Crusaders side who lacked nothing in effort.

As for the first half performance, I never saw it coming. I love to lay clear favourites, but I considered the starting price very favourable to Leeds and was never really able to adjust to that but I feel that was down to my advance reading of the teams as opposed to inflexibility.

However, thanks to some small trades, I did manage to increase my profit from £75 to £100 at the Half. £100 is what I usually refer to as the target amount in Super League games and to get that in what I thought would be a 1.01 walkover was pleasing although my draw trading was particularly poor.

I was too keen to level up my stakes and not take the market on like I should. I did not buy heavily enough and I sold too expensively and, aside from dealing with it being the first game of the season, would be the key lesson to take from the half.

At Half Time, I considered the Crusaders too large and the draw too short. With hindsight, I feel that I underestimated the conditions. Whilst I am a draw backer, one thing I had noticed last year was that the draw can bottom out around a certain price and time and I was content to remove my green on the draw. However, not only did the conditions make this a poor choice. (I would green up before Leeds ran away with it due to the time) but there was insufficient liquidity to trade the draw as I usually would which could sometimes make up the removed green.

Whilst I had not seen the closeness of the game, I had commented upon the 2009 season opener between the same two teams which saw a 20 minute score of 22-0 and the next 60 minutes be 6-6. This fact, combined with my thoughts on the game, meant that I would always be keen to back Leeds on the Handicaps and jumped on Leeds + 10.5 at 2.06 or so and Leeds + 24.5 at 1.08 and 1.04 (Lay prices obviously.)

This was not just a game reaction but rather the result of a thought process I have had for a long time which is to lay handicap favourites late on. I always believe that players will give 100% in a close game. However, to the great majority of players, winning by 10 or by 12 is immaterial and you will not always see the same desire.

Obviously this worked well in this game!

I used £10 on both markets but must say that I was disappointed to have traded out too soon. This is a common issue and one that I really need to stop doing. Yes, trade out but only because it is value and not to guarantee a profit. I guess this links into my previous post on the concept of “Winning” as against the concept of “Earning”. However, I did manage to claw back some earnings on the +24.5 handicap with Ali Lauititi’s controversial try.

Was it a try? Probably not. But, I was convinced it would be given. The benefit of the doubt goes to the attacking side and generally speaking, tries are only disallowed through clear evidence to the contrary. Whether you like or dislike that rule, it is the rule and hopefully it will be applied consistently. But, where would be without a video referee controversy!

My only other point on the game would be to reference a lay of Leeds in the 1.0s when 12-6 up. Whilst I considered the superiority of Leeds rendered a 1.0 first half lay to be of questionable value, (Although I usually believe that random theory makes such lays profitable), I had no problem laying with such a small lead late on when time remaining can close the superiority of one team. Like trading the draw, I hope this is another example of flexible thinking which can help this year as opposed to having strict rules.

So there we have a rather unique look into my bizarre approach to trading a match. I probably make it harder than it should be, but this is something that I take great enjoyment and satisfaction from.

In the end, before commission, I made around £120 from the main odds market, £7 from the +10.5 Handicap and around £70 from the +24.5 Handicap.

It also leads onto the question of why I blog for which I can provide two reasons. The first is to provide self analysis. I regularly read over my posts from directly after an event to try to learn new lessons and to try to understand the decisions I make. The second is to promote Rugby League trading and to show what can be achieved through hard work.

I have always watched Rugby League and started trading it seriously in 2008. It is fair to say that in both liquidity and popularity terms, it is often sparse. This is something that I enjoy and I hope to spread the word so to speak.

I also believe that it is something that can be learned and can provide great rewards. I may or may not have a good understanding of Rugby League, but the trading concepts I have developed have all been self taught from scratch and again show what anyone is capable of. I am not going to say “This is how you do it” but what I will say is that I believe that most people who put their minds to this can succeed and I believe that their success will only help to raise even more new ideas which will also help me in the long run.

That is also why I post my profit and loss figures. I do this not to “show off”. Frankly, there are people earning more in a minute than I earn in a week. I do it because I am not only proud of my achievements, but to show what can be achieved with hard work. I am not making millions, but I am making an amount that I consider to be obscene, and I started just from reading blogs and then discussing thoughts on forums. If I can do this, then anyone can.

To that end, I “copied” an idea from Mark Iverson’s blog and was posting my thoughts real time on The Geek’s Forum for anyone who was around. Now, in the cold light of day, they will read like inane ramblings and probably aren’t the most clear and helpful. (In my defence, I am trying to trade the market first!) However, this is something I am keen to do, until I get told to stop! so why not stop by and have a look? Again, I’m grateful for any comments received as I know all too well how helpful a second opinion can be at a time when I am constantly switching my attention between the game and the market.

So, that is how I trade in a nutshell. Confused? Probably. Think I’m a “bit weird” (I couldn’t think of a better expression)? Probably! Think I would do better if I just sat down and bet on what I thought? Probably! Going to look to trade Rugby League and discuss this further? Well, only you can decide that.

Super League XV

2010-01-29T00:04:00.001Z

Super League XV kicks off in less than 24 hours and I already feel like a little kid waiting for Santa Claus to appear. I just hope that by the end of the season I won’t have realised that Santa Claus isn’t real. Indeed, I hope to meet Santa Claus several times this season if the draw decides to pop in for the occasional visit! I’ll even take just seeing the big guy’s costume!

I probably haven’t prepared as fully as I would have liked due to several reasons, but I have spent today setting up my trading platform for the 2009 season. Last year, I used the grid interface on Bet Trader Pro and that was an outstanding piece of kit which catered exactly to my needs - namely through having multiple back / lay windows open at once and being able to have different markets open at once and still be able to have bet submission windows open which could place instant bets. Obviously, Bet Trader Pro no longer exists but that may not be as bad as I had feared.

The Geek’s Toy will now be my trading platform of choice for 2010 and this is a piece of kit which is simply phenomenal and contains several outstanding features which go beyond my needs! Of course, it will take me a while to get fully used to it, but the fact that it has so many customisable settings is superb and allows you to create your own individual trading platform for your trading needs. The Geek’s Toy also boasts excellent forums with several great contributions and I would unashamedly advise all readers to sign up and make it even better.

Now, onto this weekend’s games. I regularly wrote Thursday previews last year and aim to do the same this year. I also plan to say a bit about how I think the teams will fare in general this year.

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites this year and it’s little wonder why. The Rhinos boast a young side who are continuously improving and possess a central nucleus of players at the peak of their careers whilst their main rivals, St Helens, are definitely a team in a decline / rebuild period. The only major loss from their 2009 squad is Lee Smith who has been ably replaced by Brett Delaney from Australia. Delaney is more of a defensive centre than an attacking one, but it’s not like the Rhinos are short in attack and their right hand side defence now looks as good as any whereas last year it could be argued that Lee Smith (who I feel is a huge loss to Rugby League) displayed some positional naivete at times.

The scariest thing about the Rhinos is that they boast a new signing in Greg Eastwood who is replacing no-one from their 2009 squad! He was meant to be Gareth Ellis’ replacement in 2009 and whilst his arrival was delayed the potential issues that this could have caused were more than ably solved by the emergence of Carl Ablett into a genuine Super League player. So the Rhinos look the clear favourites to become the first ever time to win four successive Grand Finals.

Equally clear, is that their opening week opponents, Crusaders RL, are likely to be at the bottom of the table come the end of the year. Relocated from Bridgend to Wrexham has been a controversial decision and one that several feel overlooks the reason for their initial inclusion in Super League, but the Welsh outfit are here for two years at least and if they can build on a likely sell out crowd tomorrow, they could also remain for a while longer.

However, if they want to achieve that, they will need to either overhaul their playing squad or rely on a terrific job from Brian Noble. There’s no doubting that in Noble, Jon Sharp and Iestyn Harris, the Crusaders have a coaching staff as good as any in the league, but there’s also no doubt that their playing squad is amongst the weakest in the league.

You can expect the Crusaders to improve as the season goes on, and their squad does look improved from 2009, but you can expect them to receive a second straight wooden spoon at the end of the year unless their collection of fringe NRL players, Hull bad boys and Welsh youngsters (And going by Brian Noble’s comments and previous form, you can expect them to only be used sparingly) have the season of their lives.

So, there’s no doubt that Leeds should be clear favourites on Friday to defeat Celtic. The Rhinos are probably better player for player in the 17 man team, but you can never be totally certain. Last year in the same game, the Rhinos went 22-0 up after 20 minutes before drawing the next 60 6-6! And who can ever forget Wales’ first half performance against Australia in the 2000 World Cup Semi Final.

Still, with the Rhinos currently being laid at 1.08, let’s remember that last year Bradford Bulls travelled to St. Helens in April and defeated the Saints who started at 1.05. Whilst form lines were more apparent then, the talent levels were uncomparably closer than they will be on Friday night. The very large amount to lay at 1.05 suggests to me that the price will end up hovering around 1.05 / 1.06 pre match and there’s certainly no value in laying that but equally, there’s probably insufficient value in backing 1.05. I’ve never been the best at predicting kick off prices though. My prices are often greatly different to what everyone else’s is.

As the next match shows…

I am much lower on Harlequins than most people are. I have a huge amount of respect for Brian McDermott, but I fear for the Quins this year. I make the 10/1 on them to finish bottom exceptional value and you only have to look at their squad to realise why. Whilst they do have some genuine young talent and a hugely exciting prospect in Ben Jones Bishop, they equally have an insipid collection of players who have never looked likely to have successful Super League careers.

I also wonder where their inspiriation will come from, especially with two of their best players missing the start of the season in Luke Dorn and Rob Purdham. Dorn can be hugely inconsistent and do nothing for 79 minutes, but can create something from nothing and is a huge loss whereas Rob Purdham has always been a player I have enormous respect for and who I feel has never garnished the respect he deserves. Purdham is at home anywhere on the pitch and is far more creatively talented than he is given credit for. He displays excellent leadership and all he lacks is that extra ounce of athleticsm that would have made him a truly great player.

All that said, it is entirely possible that Brian McDermott could push this bunch of players into overachieving, especially if one or two of the young players raise their games and Purdham and Dorn come back quicker than expected.

Meanwhile, I am higher on Wakefield than most are. I don’t have a definitive placing for them just yet, but I feel they will be around the 8th spot. They fall into the middle of the Bradford / Catalans / Hull KR / Castleford group of clubs. They will miss the leadership and acumen of Brad Drew, but Ben Jeffries could fill that void by returning to the form he showed to earn a move to Bradford.

If the Wildcats do have a weakness, it is definitely in their backline where they have lost Tony Martin, Ryan Atkins, Matt Petersen and Scott Grix whilst Damien Blanch will also miss the start of the season. Luke George and Sean Gleeson look set to step up but that looks like a loss. George can score heavily but is suspect in defence and Gleeson looks more of a back up at this level. New signing Daryl Millard is capable of doing well but quite often overseas players take a while to settle and whilst Paul Johnson, Jason Demetriou and Kevin Henderson can be shifted to centre when required, none have the pace to worry a defence.

That said, Wakefield look very strong up front with new signings Shane Tronc and Paul King joining Michael Korkidas and Richard Moore in a front row that can set the platform for new signings Terry Newton and Glenn Morrison to control. Morrison in particular could be the domestic signing of the season if he can remain healthy although that is a big if and with Jeffires, Danny Brough, Sam Obst and Tevita Leo Latu all capable of posing questions, enough chances could be created to allow the Wildcats to possibly suffer from a below average conversion rate.

One final note on John Kear’s squads is that they traditionally start well before fading away which suggests a heavy pre-season in say contrast to Brian Noble whose sides usually start poor but peak for the playoffs. It is possible that Kear may look to switch things up this year with his best squad (on paper) for some time, but his history makes the Wildcats exceptional value against Harlequins.

Now, there are two ways to approach the opening weeks of the season. You can either accept that no-one has a true reading on teams yet, or you can embrace this unpredictability. Sure, there is a lot more luck involved now, but Wakefield look a hugely attractive price against Quins. At a neutral venue, I would make Wakefield 1.5 favourites and I have written enough about home advantage previously, to believe they are outstanding value this weekend at a current best price of 5/4. Even when I try to talk myself out of this view, the best I can do is call this a 50/50 game.

The Wildcats should have enough muscle and intelligence to out play the Quins and whilst a home victory would not stun me, nothing ever does in Rugby League, the current price looks worthy of a nice investment.

Update: Just as I went to hit post, someone is laying Leeds at 1.08 for £5,000 and I am shocked. I’ve already looked to get onto my maximum level and most of that was below 1.08. There is no money to back at 1.07 and hardly any at 1.06 so someone with a very big bank could look to make a very nice profit.

95 hours til kick off

2010-01-25T21:34:00.003Z

It doesn't seem three and a half months since Leeds Rhinos lifted the Super League trophy at Old Trafford and yet here we are, ready for a new season to commence. Super League has come a long way ever since Sheffield and Paris Saint Germain played the first ever Super League match infront of a crowd of 17,873 at the Charlety Stadium on Friday 26 March 1996 and who knows what the next eight and a bit months will bring as fourteen teams go to battle for the right to be crowned Grand Final winners on Saturday 2 October 2010.

Of course, the opening spectacle does appear to be more damp squib than summer fireworks as the "Crusaders" play host to the Leeds Rhinos. The second successive time this fixture has been used to launch Super League and whilst the merits of that can be debated the more passionate amongst us will just be glad to have anything back. And let's face it, you don't want to devour the steak without having tasted the soup.

Still, with the Crusaders coach Brian Noble publicly claiming that he will be forced to give shirts to players who aren't yet ready, you could be forgiven for expecting nothing short of a massacre which will do nothing to boost the fortunes of the Welsh outfit who have endured a tumultous off season which has seen them move from Bridgend to Wrexham and overhaul their playing roster with NRL fringe players and Hull bad boys. However, their coaching backroom offers some hope for later on in the year.

As for Leeds, they will be looking for an unprecedented fourth straight Grand Final success and they will be able to benefit from an extremely stable off season. The key switch having been the departure of Lee Smith to rugby union to be replaced by Brett Delaney, an Australian more known for his defence than his attack but who should be able to slot in seamlessly to the Leeds backline. And any side that can boast a new signing such as Greg Eastwood who just "adds one" to their 2009 squad will look to better their previous record, which will make Leeds a scary proposition for even their most fierce of rivals in 2010.

Newcomers to the game probably won't learn much by watching the game. In all probability, the match odds market will be 1.01 within the first twenty minutes and the handicap markets never attract the liquidity to make them a worthwhile proposition. However, you can never say never in Rugby League.

As for myself, I'll be looking mainly to sort out my approach for 2010.

In 2009 I developed a very highly energetic and succesful trading strategy which would regularly see me attempt to submit upto ten bets per minute depending upon odds fluctuations and the on field events. I did all this using Bet Trader Pro which now unfortunately no longer exists.

Moving software has been harder than you would think as, given the copious number of bets I submit and need to respond quickly I became reliant upon (what I considered standard) multiple bet windows... Which nowhere else seems to have.

I did find Bet Pod Pro which offer this functionality although sometimes the program can be cumbersome; especially at peak times when nearly all API programs are sluggish and whilst the newly launched Geek's Toy is indeed an excellent piece of software, it doesn't have multiple windows availability.

That said, its speed and customability makes it my preferred option and I have one or two ideas which I will look to test early in the season before fine tuning. After all, everyone needs a pre-season! And I have even been trading the Draw market in Rugby Union in a similar fashion to how I trade the RL draw market (although I haven't a clue about Rugby Union so have just been market trading, not reacting to in game events) to help me prepare for the upcoming season. Preparation or Obsession? Probably both!

Anyway, 4 days to go and I'm sure I'll be back here long before then to post some further comments as well as dropping by the forums listed on the left to discuss the upcoming season.

Just a quick note on my other trading which hasn't gone as well recently. The 'issues' I referred to previously are making a comeback and effecting both my desire and ability to trade as I am making some very peculiar decisions and this is heavily affecting my profitability. I just hope it won't effect my RL trading!

Personal (too?) Revelations and why trading is analogous to Sonic The Hedgehog.

2010-01-18T22:08:00.002Z

“What is also pleasing is that I have largely been very consistent. I have traded 20 markets this year, and only one of these markets shows a loss. That was a small pre match trade in Valencia v Espanyol where I lost £1.86. All other markets have showed a profit.”

Compare and contrast the concept of trading as against 1990 console games such as Sonic The Hedgehog and Super Mario Brothers.

Confused? Let me explain.

The first comment was one I made back on Saturday 9 January 2010. A more recent comment would be.

“What is gaoling about my trading through the past 8 days has been losses of £200, £80, £150 and £230.”

The second comment is a question I will attempt to answer through the following post to attempt to explain my recent losses.

Loss One. A £200 back of 0-0 prior to the start of the Leicester v Ipswich game. I am a 0-0 scalper. The odds drifted pre kick off. I backed to my maximum liability. Joined the laying queue in play but a goal after 30 seconds meant I lost £200. I have no issues with that. An occupational hazard so to speak.

Loss Two. A loss of over £80 on Dancing On Ice. This was slightly annoying but explainable. Usually, ITV reality shows offer a recap before voting lines close. They didn’t and the market was suspended with an unequalised book. I wasn’t too concerned at the time as late money had been highly unreliable during the X Factor. However, for the first show, it was a poor idea to make any assumptions and what did aggravate the loss was that I had accurately called one of the Bottom two, but had looked to lay for a total green book and did not recognise value as it appeared.

Loss Three. £150 on Arsenal v Bolton. The 0-0 market was highly abnormal in this game due to the presence of a five figure layer of 0-0 at the start, rendering my usual in and out method futile. I therefore “recognised value” and the fact that 0-0 was likely to crash in price. Which it did. At 12.5, I looked to lay off for £0 although I wanted to earn some money from the market so turned around and entered at 12, knowing that I had placed a lay at a largely empty 10.5. However, a large chunk of money appeared at 11, but I declined to exit as I usually would and got caught out. The stupidity rating on this was high. I behaved in a manner that was “If the market is being irrational, I too will be irrational.”

Loss Four. £230 on Newcastle v West Brom. I looked to trade the Half Time Correct Score market and did very well save for a drift on 2-1. However, this was a linear train that would come down with time, and being first in at 4.5 and 4.6, I was content to leave my money there and not quit. Also, a goal for Newcastle would do well for my trade so in effect, I was laying West Brom not to score in the opening 2 minutes. I missed the start of the second half, and a goal was scored after 32 seconds.

This raises an interesting question. Is this a loss one type event or a loss three type event. I am minded to say loss three. To not be aware of the start of the second half is ridiculous and this was not an “occupational hazard” as much as a display of arrogance.

So what has gone wrong? How has someone so risk averse that at age 21 they set up a pension invested in Gilts to avoid the Stock Market turned into someone who treats the Betfair markets with utter disdain.

I can think of three possible explanations.

The “personal issues” that I have referred to previously as a reason for not writing the blog have developed into thinking errors. Is it a good idea to be trading a market at 8.30 after being awake from 5.30, out at work until 6.30 and generally feeling fatigued.

Secondly, have I lost the value of money. My main income is (hopefully) Rugby League and Formula 1. Knowing that, and with the knowledge of my 2009 earnings, am I thinking that “it is only £200” and therefore leaving trades open. However, if this is so why am I so bothered about one tick trades? Why not make two tick trades at £100.

Thirdly, and this will answer the initial question posed, goes back to the intrinsic reason I trade and my nature as a person. (Apologies if I get deep and away from the general trading comments!)

My trading is fundamentally a “hobby”. It is something I do for enjoyment. I like watching sport. I like testing my brain. This combines the two. However, there is a third underlying reason, which the “personal issues” can attest to.

I am a perfectionist. I abhor the concept of losing or worse still, being wrong. Give me 99% on a test and I won’t celebrate the 99%. I’ll focus on the 1%. In a previous job, we had a sample of our work checked. I developed a system to avoid “sampling”! A lot of who I am as a person relates to my perceived accomplishments. It sounds ridiculous, but one losing trade can equal one losing person and that is why I focus on small, mathematical based trades.

Recently, I have noticed that maybe my confidence is pretty low and it has been ever since I commented on going back to law school back in August. Certain other events and people haven’t exactly helped either. Therefore, I am incorporating more and more “thinking errors” into my trading and striving for 100%, turning down even 99% because in my eyes, that is as wrong as 0%.

So, how does this relate back to Sonic The Hedgehog? Well, that’s easy. Number one, trading fulfils a relaxing / entertainment role in my life like computer games do for others. Secondly, and this is the key, in Sonic The Hedgehog, you get 3 lives per level and a continue at the end of each level.

If you get something wrong, it is not game over. At least not to begin with. It is in fact an unavoidable destination on the road to success.

And that’s the key. Perfection (which is also not using and to start a sentence!) is an unobtainable goal and something that is generally not required in any case. After all, it measures you against objective standards when all you can control is subjective. Is James Milner not a “better” player than Robinho for his industry and dedication. Talent is something that we are born with. Making the most, or least, of this is something that we can control.

So, maybe in my trades, I need to realise that I won’t always “get it right” but focus on accepting that. Usually I can do so without exception. Recently, I am not. And the ultimate irony in all this is that at Half Time, I could have “won” in any case by laying all scores for a 100% book given previous trades! And for the year in total, I am now around £30 down, which is pretty exceptional given my recent trades.

There’s probably a good chance I’ll read this in the morning and take the post down for fears that it is too self-revealing. Assuming that it is still here, I would be grateful for any comments received. Although short of “get a grip you loon!”, I am not sure what you can say!

How accurate can gut feelings be

2010-01-15T23:37:00.001Z

One thing I have noticed recently is the correctness of my “gut feeling”. So many times recently, I have thought something may happen and it has both in trading and in my personal life. When I wrote my last blog entry, I commented that a loss was surely just around the corner. Little did I know how close.

Ipswich v Leicester. 32 seconds gone. Goal. What made this particularly disappointing was that when I had turned to the Correct Score market, I placed a back bet pre play of £100 at 11.5 which was the current lay odds at 11.5. In most games recently, the 0-0 price has collapsed so I wasn’t confident of getting matched, but not only did I get matched, but the market edged out to 12 so I placed another £100 expecting to be able to lay off at 11.5 within the first 90 seconds or so. The match kicked off and as expected, the initial back price was 11.5, so I put in a £200 lay and then saw the ball appear to crawl over the line in slow motion.

I very rarely have £100 liability in play, but had used my maximum limit of £200 and it was all gone. Still, I wouldn’t have done anything any differently. That’s the game I play.

The end result was a £166.11 loss, although that was slightly offset by earnings of just over £20 on Hamilton v Rangers and Real Madrid v Mallorca.

The evening saw the return of Dancing On Ice on ITV. Now, I dislike most reality shows, but I actually quite enjoy reality shows on ITV. I can’t explain what the difference is – I suppose the X Factor and Britain’s Got Talent contain an element of ordinary people realising their dreams, but I can’t explain the appeal of Z list celebrities on ice. However, I do enjoy it.

I did not, however, enjoy my result on the market which lead me to lose £86.48 despite correctly calling Sharron Davies to be Bottom two after her performance. How? Well, I was around £10 green at various points but continued to trade most acts although the liquidity was very poor. And then, just as the show came on, the price on Davies and Sinitta suddenly shortened, whilst the price on Emily Atack and Tana Ramsey suddenly lengthened. Anyone who had followed the X Factor would not have been too concerned by this as it seemed that the late drifts were always wrong so I remained unconcerned, expecting the market to either swing back my way or for the insiders to be proved wrong.

However, the market immediately suspended when the show opened and immediately closed the lines. I had expected a further ten minutes of waffle, and had been wrong which was my major mistake. And then, the late market movements were proved accurate and I was looking at a very, very red book thanks to a set of ridiculous mistakes which had betrayed my cautious but successful approach so far this year.

The evening ended slightly better (or rather the morning began well) when Arizona Cardinals advanced in the NFL playoffs. At 31-10, I was happy enough that they would hold on for the win, and decided to go to bed as I was up at 5.30 for work. Before doing so, knowing what the Cards are like, I placed a small insurance bet on Green Bay at 21. Anyway, the Packers then scored two consecutive TDs and the game was tied at 38 with the Cards having the ball with time running out. Thanks to some small trades, I had around £170 on Green Bay and £40 on Arizona when Neil Rackers attempted a possible game winning Field Goal. After umming and aahing, I was going to go with my gut that Rackers would miss, and was about to lay Arizona when he missed.

I then didn’t look to even up my book (any other time I would have, but I usually lay any sports teams that I follow) and a great play by the Arizona D won the game, reducing my profit but allowing my team to advance in the playoffs. Although it will all count for nothing if they lose against New Orleans! And I also was incredibly tired when I woke up the next morning at 5.30 after only getting to sleep at 1.30!

So after a good start to the weekend, the ending wasn’t quite so great and this week hasn’t been too great either. I have previously promised plenty of posts on RL trading before the season starts but unfortunately some of the personal issues which I have previously referred to have re-appeared which also explains the lack of blog posts this week. There is nothing unduly serious about these issues but when they do crop up, I lack the ability to write blog posts or contribute on the forums.

Usually, when they do crop up, I like to immerse myself in trading as a distraction, but I couldn’t even be bothered for that in the middle of this week, losing £3 on Coventry v Portsmouth and winning nearly £2 on Liverpool v Reading. Games which I looked to trade, but couldn’t be bothered with. However, I did sandwich them with some good trades as I made close to £45 on Man City v Blackburn and £35 on Blackburn v Aston Villa, largely through my usual tactics.

Finally, I also managed to earn just over £10 from tonight’s Rugby Union between Ulster and Edinburgh as I simply transferred some of my usual RL trading skills across whilst trading the market before kick off and in the last twenty or so minutes.

Hopefully, I’ll be back soon with more posts but if I don’t manage to make a post for a few days, I wish everyone has a good weekend.

Slow and steady – A time for reflection.

2010-01-10T01:10:00.000Z

Perspective is an invaluable tool and something that I usually fail to consider properly so allow me to indulge myself for a moment whilst I consider today’s achievements.

I have “earned” over £100 from watching sports. From clicking buttons on a computer whilst watching television. From the same activities that I have performed for 25 years of my life. From doing what the ‘average’ person does on a daily basis. It has been all too common recently to overlook this fact. To consider winning a normal occurrence and fail to appreciate the achievements made.

I hit the “reset” button at the start of 2010 and since then, I have earned £288.14. Some people will not have earned that much through their day jobs in 2010.

Today’s trading was, as a matter of fact, particularly routine and unmemorable and my first triple figure day of the year came at a time when most sporting events were actually called off due to the snow. With only one 3.00 PM kick off in the football, I looked to trade the correct score market in the Arsenal v Everton game and despite actually having laid an Everton scoreline at the time they scored, still profited to the tune of £13.

At the same time, I had one eye on the Rugby Union match. Now previously I have run in to trouble when trading multiple markets at the same time, but most of my trades were done before the match went in play as I sought to use some of the more general trading strategies that work well in Rugby League and then traded the draw during the first half to earn over £25 from the market.

I then traded the Birmingham v Man Utd game and was able to scalp 0-0 down from 11.5 to 10 as per my usual strategy before Birmingham scored at a time when I had significant green on 3-3 and 3-1. Pure luck it must be understood, but they all count and some small trades at Half Time took my earnings on the market to over £50, which was my largest profit of the year.

Finally, with the £100 barrier in sight, I sought to trade the Valencia v Almeria Correct Score market before kick off and combined with some small in play trades, profited to the tune of £19 before commission, bringing my daily earnings to over £106.

The most amazing thing about all the trades was that at all times, they just felt like small trades. There was no in depth preparation or frantic trades as I associate with my more “in depth” trades in Rugby League, Formula 1 or even when I was trading the X Factor. Everything feels in slow motion at the moment.

As I look back on my trading so far this year, the two major things that stand out have been divergence and pre play trading. Namely, I have started looking to trade markets before they kick off more than I did previously, when price swings are possibly more rational and don’t suffer from liquidity issues. Secondly, I have expanded the range of markets that I trade; incorporating the likes of Rugby Union and European football using the same basic principles that I have learned.

What is also pleasing is that I have largely been very consistent. I have traded 20 markets this year, and only one of these markets shows a loss. That was a small pre match trade in Valencia v Espanyol where I lost £1.86. All other markets have showed a profit. Even when I dipped into the 3rd test market of England v South Africa on the last day, I managed to make a penny! I expect that one of my 0-0 scalps will soon get caught out but I am confident enough in my overall strategies that this will just be a blip in the road and an inevitable fact of my trading.

As they say, every little helps and my trades this year will certainly help to go shopping in the Sales just as soon as I can actually stay on my feet when I go out! My trading has definitely improved so far and has benefited from greater consistency and clarity of thought. Now, if only it was so easy to make similar changes in my personal life!!

A slight delay - so join the Forums!

2010-01-07T22:03:00.001Z

With the weather forcing me to take a couple of days off from the day job, I was intending to be able to start my team previews. However, even in this Internet age, getting full squad information isn’t as easy as you would think (Crusaders RL don’t even appear to have a squad!) and that, combined with general procrastination, England’s third test match and my refound appreciation for Coupling on DVD means that they have been put on the backburner for now.

Those of you who use either of the trading resources I refer to at the top of my blog will be aware that I did spend some time looking at available Season bets and hope to turn that into a future blog post at some point but for now, they are just thoughts that I am awaiting feedback on. That’s also how I hope the blog will develop in 2010 – the forums being a place to discuss ideas which will then magically tidy themselves up into a coherent blog post (although I’m yet to manage one yet!)

Either way, that’s just an unashamed plug for the forums which I am quite keen on seeing grow. Trading can be both a lonely hobby and one in which you can greatly benefit from outside advice and with several sports being discussed, as well as general trading thoughts and off the cuff banter I really would advise anyone who has not yet signed up to sign up as soon as possible. You won’t regret it, unless you are easily distracted in which case you might as they can be very interesting and time consuming!

With two days off work, I took my football trading skills and tried to apply them to the Spanish and Italian correct score markets although the Italian suffered from seemingly inconsistent liquidity and the Spanish suffered from me not bothering to check the second half had kicked off and therefore not exiting positions in sufficient time. (I was trying as the goal went in.)

Post Commission earnings of £3.89, £3.75 and £15.45 probably justified the effort involved and I added to this by winning a single pence on the third test today. (I had moved my green onto South Africa.) /Amazingly, the draw could be backed at 1.19 with one ball remaining which seems a ridiculous price but I was happy enough to just collect another England last ball “victory”. Bring on the Summer, even if it is only Bangladesh and Pakistan!

The Rugby League season starts in just 22 days now so I’m hoping to get at least one preview up this weekend as well as looking to start some pieces on general RL trading for those of you with limited experience but excessive enthusiasm unless I get stranded at work. And if I do, well you should join the forums if you still haven’t, because they will keep you more amused than I ever can anyway.

Slow and steady

2010-01-05T23:39:00.001Z

When I first set up this blog at the start of 2009, my January trading was less than spectacular. I was putting in a lot of effort but actually ended up that month down by £10. This year, I am five days into the month and am somehow showing a profit of £136.43 despite feeling like I have put no real “work” into my trading.

Maybe his is due to my previous efforts paying dividends, maybe it is luck or maybe it is just the size of my bank which is helping me to achieve my current progress but it sure seems odd to several people that I can come home from work, turn on my computer and earn enough money to pay for my addiction to Ted Baker.

On Saturday, I initially benefited from a lucky break as the Cardiff v Bristol City FA cup match was postponed. I had tried to duplicate the strategy I employed in the Stevenage v Cambridge game but had got caught out and was looking at a £4 loss before I decided to close my book and head out into the January sales. (Is it just me or are “Sales” just a way for companies to sell items which would never have been sold at their full price) Anyway, the match was postponed and my loss erased from my balance sheet.

I then followed that up by attempting to trade the Reading v Liverpool match on the Correct Score market. The key lesson I learned from this is not to get involved in such markets before team news is announced as certain prices drifted fairly substantially once the Liverpool team was announced with the inclusion of Fernando Torres. Not that it mattered much as Liverpool once again were held to an awful result.

As for my trading, well I nearly had a panic attack at the start of the game when Betfair crashed. Interestingly, judging by the forum, it appeared that it crashed for some people and not others. Either way, I had taken a heavy position on 0-0 before the match went in play as the score drifted just before kick off and had attempted to submit a lay of 0-0 once the market opened so I had ten minutes or so of not knowing whether my 0-0 lay had been submitted correctly or not which caused the explosion of a few nerves!

When I finally got the market loaded, my 0-0 lay had been submitted and taken but I was understandably hesitant to get involved in anything but the smallest trades until half time when I was satisfied that the website had started behaving itself and that with some small second half trades lead to a profit of £16.35.

On a related issue, it does appear that Betfair’s website is becoming more and more unreliable which is of great concern given that they are taking more and more commission through the Premium Charge. It is rather inconsistent to look to take more money from traders (I know that punters are also affected by the Charge) and then not be able to provide a consistent service. It would be impossible to seek to reimburse traders who get caught through the downtime of the website mid trade but something more than a half hearted acknowledgement and apology on the forums may be appropriate although it is more apparent than ever just how much disregard Betfair have for their customers these days.

My Saturday evening trades were then followed up with me once again trying to trade pre match markets in Spanish football and I lost £1.86 on the Valencia v Espanyol market but gained £9.57 on the Atletico Madrid v Sevilla market. I also popped into the Correct Score market for the latter game before the game and at Half Time and a late goal from the home side helped me to a £13.47 victory which was quite astonishing really considering the little effort put in.

The key thing to take out of this is once you have a strategy that you are confident in, you can look to apply this in other areas which are out of your comfort zone. It won’t always work but on occasions it can.

With Sunday being the last day off before the return to work, I was keen to do as little as possible and just put my feet up and there was enough football on to even allow me to look to dip my toes into the Correct Score waters again.

Now before the turn of the year, one of the areas where I had recognised a significant weakness was in poor preparation and a tendency to rush into things and unfortunately, I carried this into the Leeds v Man Utd market. I had been out for dinner before hand and then upon returning home ten minutes into the match, launched myself into the market without a true appreciation for how the market was behaving. (Whilst I have been putting little “effort” into my trades recently, I had been keeping an eye on any market drifts and the general liquidity on certain scores.)

So, whilst a Leeds goal probably could not have been predicted, the fact that I got caught with a lay on 0-2 probably could have been predicted. However, my relatively small stake size allowed me to exit with just a £13 red. Whereas in previous months, I would have probably got agitated by “going behind” and looked to make stupid trades, I accepted my errors and walked away from the market.

Until Half Time. By which point I had familiarised myself with the liquidity and the way the market was behaving and I was subsequently able through trading at both half time and in the second half to turn my £13 red into a profit of £12.25 which was as pleasing as any profit I had made from Betfair in a very long time.

Buoyed by this, I then took a look into the Hearts v Hibs game and was perplexed by the lack of liquidity given that there was no competing football. Either way, whereas I had been caught out by a goal in the earlier game, I benefited from a goal of sorts in this game.

I had been matched at 3-3 and was in the process of trying to lay off (but the liquidity was such that there was no takers) when a goal went in which gave me a total profit of £6.77. Not bad for a £3 stake.

I then followed this up by trading the Arsenal v West Ham game which saw the 0-0 price come in from 16.5 allowing me to scalp the 0-0 scoreline in 0.5 increments as per my preferred approach when West Ham scored just before half time. (There seems to have been several late goals in the first half this season,) The impact of the goal was largely neutral on my book as although I had a large red on 3-1, I had an equally large green on 3-0 which countered each other out.

However, where as in the past I had looked down on such goals because they tend to de-stabilise the market at Half Time, I looked to take advantage of this and managed to achieve a green book of over £30 which I largely sat on until towards the end of the game where I tried to equalise my book exactly on my way to an eventual £33.57 profit.

Over the weekend, I had made small but consistent profits from an approach that was incredibly laid back. Whereas my 0-0 scalps are usually made often, I was in the middle of re-organising some finances and therefore my bank was only at 50% capacity. (Which had meant that I was hesitant to use as much funds as usual.) Everything felt much slower as well and maybe this might be the way forward whilst I am becoming increasingly confident in my approach at Half Time which, whilst will never make a huge amount, is becoming increasingly profitable.

I had also looked into the Rugby Union game on Sky Sports and had tried to trade the market before kick off but got caught out and ended up with a red book before kick off (again, only for £2 or so) which I had been prepared to leave, but managed to use my Draw trading for two minutes at the end of the game to turn my red into a £0.07 profit.

Finally, after travelling a total of near 7 hours today in order to complete 5 hours work, I was in need of relaxation tonight and was disappointed that the Blackburn v Aston Villa match was postponed but was equally pleased that Sky used this to show the Stoke v Fulham game.

Despite 0-0 starting at a preposterous 8, I managed to scalp 0-0 before the goal to earn £10.50 before I then traded some more around Half Time to take it up to just over £20 but I was hesitant to trade any more as at 3-0, another goal could see the market end. However, I hadn’t properly balanced my book and the second Fulham goal allowed me to take £25 exactly. (£23.82 after commission.)

There are times where I feel I have to pinch myself and this was one of them. I have received £23.82 for pushing a couple of buttons on a computer whilst a game of football is on. It feels beyond absurd and it is a fact that any remotely successful trader should remind themselves of how fortunate they are to be in their current position.

It is also a complete world away to how I felt towards the end of the Rugby League season and when using the football strategy where I was possibly placing myself under too much pressure (and I have never been one to cope well with stress!). As much as I can make excellent earnings from this, I should always remember that fundamentally, this is a hobby and something I derive pleasure from. The day that ends is the day I will cease to trade.

Anyway, I am sure I have rambled sufficiently about my weekend’s trades. The intention of this blog is not to dialogue every trade I make but to speak generally and with particular emphasis on Rugby League as this is where my main interest lies.

To that end, and with the season set to kick off in 24 days, I will be looking to start making some Rugby League posts. Whilst my long term prognostication powers are less than impressive, I will hope to write some detailed previews on all teams as well as general articles on how I approach both Rugby League trading and how I often look to read games. I know that some of you are very keen to learn about Rugby League whilst maybe not having a great technical knowledge of the game, so if you have any questions feel free to ask them. There are far worse ways to spend your Friday and Saturday early evenings!

And with time running out, and the weather leaving me snowed in tomorrow (I opted to take a holiday rather than wait for a freezing train to crawl through levels of snow I have never seen before) I will have to start updating squad lists and pulling my thoughts together pretty soon!

Start as you mean to go on.

2010-01-01T22:11:00.001Z

The start of a New Year is often a perfect opportunity to wipe the slate clean, dust yourself down and hit the refresh button and that’s exactly how I am approaching 2010. So, like most things, my trading adventure is set to start from the beginning again, with the results from 2009 a distant memory although hopefully the lessons learned will remain stored.

The plan for 2010 is very simple. Just enjoy trading, look to improve wherever possible and move away from financial objectives. Hopefully this blog will document all that and any lessons I learn which I feel would be of interest or value to others.

I traded two events today. The first was the Cambridge v Stevenage game which was curiously in play despite not being televised. All I did whilst cleaning out rubbish from old cupboards which had accumulated dust over several years was look to trade the match odds market before the kick off.

Given that I knew nothing about the sides, or any team news, I looked to be as cautious as possible and eventually settled for a green book of around £9 on each possible outcome. With hindsight, I could have taken advantage of the swings slightly more but trading on an event you know little about is notoriously risky. For example, a key player may have been ruled out and therefore a 2 or 3 tick swing could be irrecoverable as opposed to being a traditional punting swing. Stevenage were the victors, and my account profited to the tune of £9.02 before commission; £8.60 afterwards. Obviously a small amount monetary, but it was a pleasing win to start 2010.

This is something that I may look to do more of going forward. It is not really suitable for Premier League matches given the volumes natched, but if you are confident in your trading skills, I would imagine that it could be a worthwhile endeavour if combined with other activities, although I would guess that you are prone to late breaking news creating a large swing which could counter two or three wins.

The other event that I traded was the Sale v Harlequins Rugby Union match. I consider my forte to be in Rugby League trading and there are clear parallels between trading the two sports. Trading Rugby Union was something that I considered looking into at the end of the Super League season but never got around to doing. I also need to state that whilst I am a huge Rugby League fan, I dislike Rugby Union as much and have never watched an entire match.

Before the game, I had accumulated a profit nearing the amount I achieved on the Stevenage v Cambridge game, through similar strategies. The market benefited from good liquidity, and could have been a trader’s dream as the Sale price wobbled between 1.51 and 1.57 for no reason other than incoming money.

I also looked to monitor the market in play whilst I did other things but without a knowledge of Rugby Union as a game and without watching it, it’s hard to accurately comment on the price swings. Nonetheless, there were some clear similarities between the market and that which you would expect in a RL game, although I was amazed to see the draw as low as it was early on but it was the end of the game which reminded me of a Super League game and provided the greatest draw parallels.

With twenty minutes to go, and a 12 point lead, Sale, who were the favourites pre match, could be laid for 1.06. Now, tries in Rugby Union are less common than in League but this seemed very much a RL price. It only ever takes one piece of random luck such as the bounce of a ball from a kick, an inexplicable knock on, a curious refereeing decision, a desperately poor attempt at a tackle or a moment of genius from the attacking side to score a try. And obviously if one is scored, the market then reacts to any second attack from the trailing side, knowing that another score could create a flip flop on the scoreboard which, late in the game, is difficult to overturn.

However, as I wasn’t following the game, I didn’t get involved and am not recommending that 1.06 shots with 20 minutes to go in RU are an automatic lay. Rather, I am using this situation as support for my general theory of laying 1.1 in Rugby League.

The ending of the game would also provide excellent support as to why I love to trade the draw and how profits can be made.

Firstly, and it should be acknowledged that only pennies were matched, the draw drifted out to 100+ with a 12 point lead which in RL terms is two tries and one goal. In such a situation, I find it preferable to back the draw as opposed to merely laying the favourites. Whilst you could have laid the favourites 1.06, backing the draw at anything over 70 would be better in my view.

Obviously the chance of the draw at this point is less than the trailing side winning, but would it really be three times less likely (To achieve a near 100% book at 1.06, the trailing side would be around 23 if the draw was at 70) and even if it is, if you are confident of a turnaround then you should also factor in the fact that a try scored would bring the draw down allowing you to trade out whilst an unconverted score would mean that one more score could only allow for a draw or a win to the leading side.

So that’s one advantage to backing the draw in this situation.

As it was, a converted try was scored which brought the gap to a try and the draw was still available in the 20s. However, at times like this, a further score can obviously kill the draw and as a result, the liquidity on the draw drops from poor to very poor which then allows for greater gaps between backs and lays and quite often people who for their own reasons are desperate to get matched will and do take prices that do not represent anywhere near value. I suppose that getting matched in such a situation is akin to gambling, but if you are doing it regularly over a season and look to subsequently trade out any red, then over the long term your risk is massively diluted.

As an example of this situation working, in the St Helens v Wakefield game from last year, I got matched at 40 in a 2 point game with 2 minutes to go for £10. A penalty was subsequently awarded and the draw priced caved to 2 whilst there was also opportunities before hand to still lay off at around 20 and eliminate your red on the teams. The kick was actually missed but by that point I was already nicely green on every outcome.

In this game, I got matched for £2 at 34 and 42 before trading out between 15 and 20 and split my green accordingly not having a clue what the true prices should have been, before walking away with £14.50 before commission.

Obviously, this is all very easy to say. The difficulty is in knowing and recognising the best opportunities and that is something you can only learn from watching the game and the market. Not every 1.06 favourite is a lay, and some 1.06s are more attractive than others and that is the split second judgement that a trader has to make.

Thankfully, I’m better in RL than I am at Rugby Union!

Nonetheless, I managed to profit £22.42 on a day when I didn’t sit down and trade. This time last year, I’d have been very happy to have made such a profit on a day’s trading without any Rugby League.

The past few months

2009-12-28T16:15:00.001Z

So, where have I been for the past few months?

As I mentioned yesterday, I have had some personal issues to deal with and it's fair to say that these impacted upon my trading. I have mentioned previously that the concept of trading is one that I enjoy as much as the financial rewards it brings.

However, not only did I start to not enjoy my trading, but I started trading very poorly. Put simply, I wasn't preparing as I should and I wasn't thinking as I should. Maybe the best example of this is in the Castleford v Wigan playoff match and the Four Nations final where in both matches, I ended up with over £10,000 on the draw.

You might wonder what the problem with that is. However, it illustrated my muddled thinking. I was gambling on the draw rather than trading the match. I was also starting to feel pressure when trading. As opposed to welcoming any win, I became unduly concerned at losing trades. I have always been a largely risk averse person but I became a person who would take undue risks and then severely beat himself up when they didn’t come off.

But I can’t say it was all bad as I managed to earn over £1,000 on The X Factor although this was also increasingly frustrating as I lost effectively £500 in the last two weeks through bad trades and, most conceringly, just getting my maths wrong when trying to hedge between two markets. (Namely laying Olly for elimination and the win.)

I also never really got into NFL trading this year due to the games being on at the same time as The X Factor elimination show.

The biggest problem however was with regards to football trading where I basically adopted an investment plan on the Correct Score market. Now, I had a large enough bank to successfully pursue this strategy. However, I didn’t stick with this. The upshot of it being that when my selected scoreline looked like coming in, I would start to lay off. However, this belied the investment plan and basically things went horrendously wrong and the losses that I started to experience really started to affect my enjoyment.

This all came to a head on Boxing Day when whilst pursuing the strategy, I clicked the wrong button and ended up costing myself over £200. However, whereas previously I would internally beat myself up over this, I just laughed and resolved to kill the strategy.

It’s true that this strategy had indeed cost a lot of money but that was all down to my implementation and not the strategy itself. How much did it cost? A lot is the short answer but the long answer is that I have still achieved a ridiculous profit for 2009 from trading, will help me out with regards to the Premium Charge and has also possibly altered my approach to risk in trading which should have a huge impact upon my trading in 2010.

I also need to point out what whilst the financial rewards have been extremely generous and welcome, I am not reliant upon the earnings that I derive from trading. All they do is provide extras to allow me to shop non stop at Ted Baker, to provide beer money for watching England Test Cricket and to allow me to buy luxuries (The latest being a Tag Heuer watch). I already have a well paid job and am young enough to not have any major financial commitments.

Ironically, since then I have actually started to enjoy my trading a lot more and have even managed to earn over £250 on the four Premiership TV games just through trading the Correct Score market. At times, you need to place things in context, and those earnings are the equivalent of one week’s work for some of my friends which I have just been able to produce through watching football which is just incredible and hugely fortuitous.

So, that’s a brief run down of my trading exploits since my last blog update and now I feel the need to briefly comment on some developments in the trading world.

I started trading in 2008 but stared taking things seriously in 2009 when I joined the Racing Traders forum and became an obsessive user of Bet Trader Pro.

Obviously, Bet Trader Pro no longer exists which presents me with a very large problem which I will address below.

However, the first point I want to address is the demise of the RT forums. Trading can be a lonely hobby and one in which newbie need a lot of help and advice to succeed. Sadly, whilst the RL forum on Betfair is fantastic, the same can’t be said for most of the forums on there so the RT forums were really great as people helped each other and also provided a social community.

Sadly, they went the way of Bet Trader Pro as more and more aggressive squabbling, ridiculously antagonistic posts and people looking to help only themselves appeared. The community and a very valuable learning resource disappeared.

Thankfully, there now appears to be two replacements. Firstly, Tradeshark has set up an independent forum with the aim of helping others and setting up a community. It’s fair to say that it probably hasn’t taken off as envisaged and hasn’t attracted as many posters as you may hope, but the intentions are the best and there’s no doubt there are some very good and helpful people over there, especially with regards to tennis trading.

More generally, The Geek of RT fame has set up his own application and forum and that place has become a safe haven for the more intelligent, helpful and co-operative RT users. The forum has seemed to really take off and what was initially a place for people to validly criticise the events at RT seems to have developed into what The Geek’s initial aim at RT was. Namely, a community of traders who seek to help the less experienced out.

Once again, this is something that I hugely benefited from. I would not have developed my trading the way I did but for the RT forums and I am extremely hopeful that The Geek’s forum will carry on the initial work that was carried out by RT but it can only do so if people join and contribute so if anyone is reading this who is not a member of The Geek or Tradeshark’s forums, I would strongly advocate joining.

Without wanting to comment on the politics of the Racing Traders demise, the way that Bet Trader Pro has been discontinued has left me with a massive problem with my trading as I was a massive user of the system and it really suited my trading style. Put simply, I use the grid interface and need a program which allows for multiple back / lay windows open at once. (Especially in Rugby League where I assign a tick value to most events and look to trade the draw incessantly - I probably make / cancel 10 trades a minutes and the same is true of my F1 trading.)

The only program I have so far found with this capability is Bet Pod Pro which is a tremendous application and one that is being continuously developed. However, I have to say that it does have its limitations in terms of speed, cancelling bets and other issues which are solely caused through my style of trading. So, if anyone is aware of any programs which allow for multiple back/lay windows open at once please let me know!

So that is a brief run down of the past 3 months and 2010 looks like being a year very different to 2009. I’ll look to post my hopes for the blog and my trading in 2010 before the end of the year with a view to closing down and drawing a complete line under what has been a very eventful 2009.

I have returned

2009-12-27T22:25:00.003Z

Hello world.

I'm not sure if anyone still visits this place but, in the event that anyone does, I have returned!

Where have I been? Well, I've still been trading but I've just had a few issues to deal with which have prevented me from finding the inclination and time to blog. Whilst these aren't fully resolved yet, I'm hoping they will be shortly and am sure I'll be able to keep the blog up to date from now on.

I'll document my trading activities for the past few months before the end of the year and then look to start blogging prospectively in the new year. The Rugby League season amazingly starts in just over a month's time so there's very little time to waste!

Anyway that's enough for now, except to say that I hope everyone reading this had a great Christmas and that I'll be back soon.

Craig.

Review of the weekend to date.

2009-09-06T11:33:00.001+01:00

I was looking over some of my initial blog posts earlier and this reinforced the progress I have made. I probably would not have believed that eight months later I would be looking to pay the premium charge for the first time but that looks a 1.01 shot given my weekly results.

The two SKY Rugby League games this week were very different yet very similar in so far as a home favourite yo-yoed to begin with before coming home in the second half. However, anyone looking to trade the draw would have been stunned by the difference in the draw prices.

In the Saints v Leeds game, the draw struggled to rise above 30 in play in the first half which was a surprise. Now, I have always advocated backing the draw early on, and I do get uncomfortable when I don’t have a very large green on the draw as aside from the trading opportunities, it is also good insurance for a poor trade.

Recently however, I have become more comfortable with taking on red on the draw and this game was the perfect illustration of when to lay the draw. For whatever reason, the draw could be laid at 14 at Half Time. Now, the market seems to panic when the scores are level at Half Time as latecomers to the draw look to build up some green on the draw. However, a long term view is that the draw will not reduce in a linear fashion in the second half; and even if it does do given that the draw very rarely enters single figure territory until 60 minutes have gone, it is a fairly low risk trade and whilst the draw never exploded until very late on, it did rise enough to allow me to trade most out in the high teens and low twenties whilst also backing some back at around the laying price.

As for the game itself, it was a heated affair which resulted in one of the most ridiculous sin binnings of all time. Put simply, Keith Senior should have been sent off for his punch with two minutes to go, only for referee Phil Bentham to sin bin him. The colour of the card was irrelevant; Senior would be off for the rest of the match but he should have walked given the touch judges’ report on his punch whilst Leeds’ other tactics, including a disgraceful chicken wing tackle on James Graham, should also see one or two players take an enforced rest next week when they wrap up the Minor Premiership.

The rest of my trading was unspectacular; the only point of real note being my decision to oppose Saints when Leon Pryce was sin binned, only for that to not work out real well although I did at least manage to cut my losses before Saints’ first try although I was quite frustrated by the lack of liquidity on the game but Friday games won’t be the same without me whinging about liquidity!

Saturday’s game was quite the opposite with much more liquidity available which was quite bizarre given that the game conflicted with a cricket match, the US Open and England’s friendly! Still, that may have been helped by someone, or some people, strongly opposing the draw as the draw drifted from 30 to 40 in almost one movement before the match, and the draw was also heavily laid throughout the game early on which did allow me to build up several thousand on the draw which, at 16 – 12 to Hull KR, I felt very comfortable about whilst I even thought that Hull KR’s try on the hooter could be a very good thing, as it would ensure that I did not trade out too much at too high odds! However, a second stray Warrington pass, ensured that Hull KR went three scores up and that my draw bet was effectively over, although the increased liquidity and my draw trades did help me to my best result of the week at around £130.

I also got involved in the other games, with my strongest game being Wakefield v Catalans and whilst a draw lay and a back of Catalans being taken just before kick off did make me slightly nervous and disappointed (I really need to exit non TV games 15 minutes before kick off) I did end up earning a not inconsiderable £30.

A draw lay was also taken in the Wigan v Hull game which again made me slightly uneasy, especially given Hull’s first half performance, and I ended up with a very small £2 loss on the market.

Huddersfield v Celtic also saw Huddersfield start at 1.06 which, even for a layer like myself, was ridiculously high and I only wish I had been strong enough to take some of this and / or take more of the absurd 1.07 in play when Huddersfield were 6 – 0 up. As it was, I ended up winning around £2 from the main market, whilst Celtic’s late comeback allowed me to take around £5 from the handicap market.

Meanwhile, this weekend has fastened up two further strategies which I will look to commence next year. The fact that they could be heavily affected by one result means that I won’t look to implement them next week but I will outline them now.

The first is to lay the draw in non in play games. My draw backing in SKY games comes from the trading opportunities they offer; very few games will end up in a draw. Still, being able to lay the draw in the low 20s would seem to offer value although obviously I will need to strengthen my nerves to follow through on the strategy!

The second relates to handicaps and my reluctance to enter handicap markets because whilst a team will fight tooth and nail to hang on to a victory, they probably won’t always display the same commitment to win by 16 as opposed to 12. So, and whilst I acknowledge that liquidity may make this a non starter, I will look to consider laying handicap favourites in play at the end of games. As I mentioned, very little money gets matched on handicaps in play, although I may look to put out some prices towards the end of matches although this is something I will look to investigate more in the close season.

And the close season is rapidly approaching with just one more round of Super League and just a further 16 televised games remaining. Never fail however, because the NFL is starting up. I had limited success trading this last year and will need to look to reintroduce and refine my strategies for the upcoming year. I will look to outline my thoughts on the season and trades next week although one thing I have noticed is the amount of markets available before the season commences with the Superbowl market, Division markets, Conference markets and Team Win markets all looking to hold some value.

Still, I am unsure whether to get involved in these markets or whether this is too much like straight gambling. (Would this also interfere with my trading of individual matches?) Any thoughts from anyone would be greatly appreciated!

Still, that’s another matter for another day with slightly more pressing issues for today! The first is the premium charge with a £50 - £60 bill looking likely. I was tempted to look to possibly trade between Betfair and someone else to avoid the charge (even if there was little profit, at least it would avoid the premium charge!) but with Betdaq having no introductory offers and most Bookmakers limiting accounts these days, it probably is something that needs to be saved for another day.

Secondly, there are a further two SL matches today and whilst Quins v Cas looks to be priced fairly appropriately (although the draw is too short), I do feel that Bradford v Salford may offer some value and will look to possibly carry some liability in play on Bradford. 1.2 is too short and whilst Bradford stand on the verge of making the top 8 which would be a terrific achievement, I just think the current price is too short given that Bradford have struggled with consistency all season and that Salford have managed to beat both the top two teams this year. Still, that’s just my thought; anything can happen but we will know the outcome this afternoon!

You play to win the game.

2009-09-03T22:34:00.001+01:00

This week’s National League 1 game was by far the most infuriating game I can remember this season. It is perfectly acceptable that a couple of refereeing decisions might go one way, the ball might bounce another way, that’s part of the unique randomness that makes Rugby League so great. However, when a team plays with a certain disregard and apathy to whether they win or not; well there is nothing wrong with that as they are perfectly entitled to do so but it sure is frustrating.

Barrow travelled to Sheffield in tonight’s SKY game knowing that they only needed to gain a “Bonus point” to secure the league. Meanwhile, Sheffield were faced with the prospect of finishing anywhere between 2nd and 6th so were desperate for a win.

Trailing by twelve in the second half, Barrow received a penalty in Sheffield’s half where they made the decision to go for goal. At this stage of the game, the rationale behind the decision was clear. Barrow had little concern as to whether they won or lost; the key aspect was whether they got the bonus point or no points. (A bonus point is awarded to any team losing by 12 or less.) It was a slightly curious decision, because 2 points by itself would not have any real advantage unless Sheffield then dropped a goal.

It did make sense that when Barrow got another penalty, they would go for a further 2 points – keeping the bonus point should Sheffield get an unconverted try.

Barrow then dropped a goal to lower the margin to 7. Again, a slightly curious decision because again by itself, it would have a limited impact although it would make a huge difference when Barrow then dropped another goal, meaning that even another Sheffield try would ensure that Barrow kept their bonus point.

Only Sheffield didn’t follow the script, or followed it too well, as Barrow ended up getting another try to somehow draw level, before a late Sheffield drop goal and try ensured that Sheffield won by 7 in a result that kept both teams happy.

Now, I have no issue with either team. They both had an objective to meet and even though I disagree with Barrow’s method (their safety first approach actually created further risk in my opinion) you can’t blame them. They had nothing to gain by winning as opposed to obtaining the bonus result and in no way was the game “fixed”.

My immediate frustrations were more with my trading, which I shall explain shortly, but before I do, I hope that the fundamental flaw with the bonus point system has been promoted. It is a system which rewards one side whilst not punishing the other. (Obviously there is the issue of points difference but in a game tight enough to invoke the bonus point, a 6 point swing in points difference is negligible.)

And Sheffield themselves have been perhaps the greatest beneficiary of the bonus point system, given that they currently sit 2nd despite winning less games than the team in 6th! The Eagles have achieved the bonus point in each of their losses and maybe it does reward consistency (mediocrity I would suggest).

However, if the RFL are to continue with such a system, and I don’t think they should; the argument that it keeps losing teams “interested” is flawed because any team that is close enough to the bonus point will still have a chance to win (until the very end) whereas a real thrashing will not be brought back to the bonus point! then I think at the very least a system needs to be incorporated where a team is punished for allowing a bonus point. This could be very easily achieved by having a Points system of 4 for a win, 2 for a draw and 0 for a loss, but 3 and 1 if the game qualifies for a bonus point.

Anyway, enough of my thoughts on RL in general; there will be an off-season for them, and onto my trading! My style of trading is very much to trade the market to apportion the green as I see fit. It is something that I have done very well this season; except for tonight where whenever I backed one team, the advantage would shift to the other!

It got to the stage where I just found it funny. I seemed to be able to control the course of the game and somehow at Half Time, I was only effectively £30 down. In part this was due to my draw trading; I had over £2,000 on the draw; a result of the poor liquidity on the draw in National League games! I even got the price swing at Half Time wrong, well I actually got it right, but I had bailed just before the market suddenly swung 3 or 4 ticks!

Anyway, my second half trading was better to begin with, catching onto Sheffield’s score and trading the draw well before Barrow decided to just go for the bonus point. At this time, I had around £2,000 on the draw, a couple of hundred on Barrow and a red of around £150 on Sheffield.

However, when I saw Barrow’s antics, I basically gave up trading the game. I looked to just get out at any price only for Barrow to comeback and see my 1.1 backs of Sheffield and my Draw lays of 30+ go to 2.5 and 6! I’ll let you count up how much that cost me, but it wasn’t over yet as in my haste to try to get on Sheffield in a change of possession, I actually missed the price I wanted and got the next. Only for the liquidity to be so bad that instead of getting 2, I got 1.2!

Looking back, I suppose it was near enough a miracle to win just under £100, but it could have been so much more… And it should have been. I just got so agitated by Barrow’s tactics that I failed to appreciate the context of the match and yet again, I had an abysmal trading performance only to be helped out at the end for a reasonable profit.

Still, I missed out on a chance to earn a larger amount, which I need to start doing on account of my recent qualification for the Premium Charge. Forgive me if I fail to celebrate too loudly. At least Betfair did notify me that they would reimburse the charge for the first week (Gee that was nice but why not also reimburse the remaining allowance for that week as well?) A whole £27.02, I can’t imagine all the delights I can buy with that, but at least Betfair did have the grace to point out that the charge would only apply if I continued to be “successful” (Not true – if I win one week and then lose the next; you don’t refund it!) and they even had the modesty to sign off with Betfair – Betting as it should be. (Indeed, if you like losing approximately 20% of your winnings through a calculation that no-one understands and cannot replicate!)

A quick preview of the weekend’s action, and I do mean quick because I am in need of sleep!

Saints v Leeds – The value will come in play as usual. It depends on which Saints side turns up and whether the rumoured disagreements with Coach Potter are actually true. One to watch.

Wigan v Hull FC – It’s hard to see Hull winning a second successive game but you guys know my feelings on 1.1 or 1.2 shots! Especially when the other team are so reliant upon a rookie halfback who can very easily have an off day. (See Myler, Richard.)

Moving onto Saturday

Hull KR v Warrington – Again, wait and see. The value will come in play and whilst it is a must win game for Warrington, will their Cup celebrations have adversely affected their preparations? Tony Smith is a stickler for detail, but it is incredibly hard to focus fully after such an emotional high. Personally, if Warrington win here and go onto make the playoffs, it would be such an achievement that I would make them a good shot to get to Old Trafford.

Celtic v Huddersfield – Obviously Celtic are putting out youngsters who aren’t ready for Super League, but remember, the same was said about Huddersfield against Saints. Not one to invest wisely in, but if you have £2 which the premium charge would otherwise take, there are worse ways to lose it.

Catalans v Wakefield – Classic case of overrated home bias. Catalans should be favourites and are most likely to win, but might the pressure get to them? Whilst Catalans do have a genuine home advantage, do not forget that Wakefield have had 2 weeks to prepare, and anything over 3 is worth strong consideration.

Finally, on Sunday there are two games.

Bradford v Salford – A mixture of Catalans and Wigan. Bradford are again the clear favourites, but it must be remembered that Salford have defeated both the top two this year (so have Bradford as well). Bradford have put together an excellent run of late but might the week off have stalled their progress? They need to win to keep their incredibly faint playoff hopes alive (although they could be crushed before they play). Again, anything in the 1.1 – 1.2s is worth a back of the away side. It’s worked up until now.

Harlequins v Castleford – The tightest game of the round and probably the most important. Whoever loses will be all but out of playoff contention, although Castleford’s last match against Celtic could see them scrape through even with a loss here. A very tough game to call as my two main strategies conflict. (Recent poor form v Home bias) For that reason, I’d be tempted to go with the outsider which is currently Castleford, but this is obviously not a very strong call!

Although, as with all of them, I have qualified and disqualified them all so many times in my head that whatever happens, I won’t be surprised! If only I stuck to my original opinions, I would have had a much better season (Probably!) And remember, as usual, I’ll send you a 100% refund cheque for the cost of my tips if they go wrong.

14 Super League games remaining, and 18 Televised games remaining so it is time to make the most of everyone of them before I attempt to re-find my social life on weekends!

My first four figure day

2009-08-30T20:12:00.001+01:00

Whenever you start a new project, you always envision the heights it may reach and the possible end results. And I am sure that when all of us started trading, we had impossibly high expectations. Then there comes the crash where you realise that things are not going to be as easy as you thought before, for those who demonstrate the necessary persistence, things do start to take off.

Whilst my initial expectations may have been that I would achieve several four figure days (and I am aware that plenty of people achieve this regularly) it is fair to say that I am still picking up my jaw from the floor after my first ever four figure day yesterday.

Now, this £1,000 day needs to be qualified heavily. Two of my wins came from bets which I had possibly hedged previously to give a return on an associated market whilst the other came from a long standing strategy and the winnings from today will undoubtedly enter me into the Premium Charge which will further reduce the £1,000 day. Still, I could look at my Profit and Loss for 29 August 2009 for a long time yet and it is still worthy of celebration.

The first event was Qualifying for the Belgium F1 Grand Prix which I technically start working on from Friday mornings, throwing out possible entry points should prices move substantially in the Free Practice sessions which bear little resemblance to the Qualifying results, usually.

Now, one of my lays was Giancarlo Fisichella. In fact, I laid £11 at 400. However, that was only possible because of an earlier highly speculative back of £3 at 900. I also backed Fisichella for 66p at 1,000 before Qualifying as well which I will come back to later. I made several other trades, on other drivers as well as Fisichella, which were largely motivated by the fact that I traditionally like to lay front runners in the In Play section but often find myself with a wasted large green on the traditional backmarkers so I like to try to get one or two lays in before the professional high layers block out 1,000 on these drivers.

Anyway, whilst I enjoy watching Formula 1, I have no great understanding of Formula 1 in terms of predictions. However, this seems an atypical season where the grid can often go in reverse even without rain. Now, this has been useful in trading usual mid-grid runners such as the Toyotas or Fernando Alonso or Nico Rosberg who are capable of experiencing massive price drops (As did Adrian Sutil last week) after a light Saturday Free Practice before fading in Qualifying 2 or settling for a high fuel load in Qualifying 3. Such a strategy has assisted me to regularly earning around £100 in the Qualifying session, including £30 last Saturday despite only having my mobile internet connection whilst having lunch in London at Starbucks!

However, believe me when I say that in trading the Force India and BMWs, I had no expectation of them mounting a challenge in Qualifying 3 and I was more than happy to lay the (what turned out to be) smart money; at the time expecting the trades to provide nothing more than a couple of pennies. I also did the same on the Race market! Uh-oh!

Right from the start of Qualifying, there was significant interest in nearly every car as the BMWs and Force Indias dropped to the 20s which seemed too low and opened itself up to some neat gap trading, especially as the overall book percentage was so high, although given my pre-Qualifying position, the amount next to these cars did not look very impressive and when they sailed into Qualifying 3, the market seemed to treat them as serious contenders as opposed to just making up the numbers.

Now my usual tactic in Formula 1 Qualifying is to try to lay cars on good laps, look to lay the field in general, but to try to use the heavy layers (people who will happily lay a car believing that he has no chance at odds which are out of sync with market prices but in tune with current reality).

Given the rather strange results of the session to date, the layers had only really been focusing on the high end cars, and my speculative value backs of Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton had gone nowhere! However, it seemed that nobody was willing to drive the price out on most cars until they appeared in Qualifying 3 and someone very kindly offered me £8 on Giancarlo Fisichella at 150! (I also managed to get bets on Rubens Barrichello and the BMWs above market prices, whilst offering such a bet on Nico Rosberg myself after backing him at 900 when he looked out in Q2)

Now, by this time, somehow I had managed to achieve £100 green on all the remaining contenders and was on course for over £200 - £300 which would have been my best result yet and left me very happy given my initial positions on the BMWs and the Force Indias!

However, as Fisichella commenced a good lap, I started to lay off; laying £30 off in the 20 – 30 range, before he went to P1 and I laid £40 off in the 12 – 5 range. At this time I still expected Jarno Trulli to get pole, but he failed and by this time, I could not believe my eyes, and with Fisichella dropping to 2 and below, I tried to equalise my book before the market suspended and my BetTrader screen said over £600 on Giancarlo Fisichella.

Now, I am not sure how, but when Betfair settled the market, I ended up with a win, after commission, of almost £750. Clearly something miscounted, but when I look at my trades, and see that my turnover was in excess of £4,000 it is easy to understand how something may have gone wrong. (The more I examine my bet history, the more I become confused.

Looking back, my trading on the market was probably okay to poor. That sounds absurd when I have won so much, but a lot of it was just down to luck. I definitely traded poorly at the end as I did not keep count of what was going on track, although I guess that is understandable given the amounts involved but even during the end of Q1 and Q2, I did not feel in control of the market. It is hard to keep track of 15 cars on track, knowing who is where, the sector times etc… but this was more about luck than anything although it is said that the harder you work, the luckier you get…

And that is the key. I approached F1 Qualifying this year with no strategy but have quickly learned. Now, it is unlikely to carry on into next season, and my guess would be that liquidity will decline for the non European Grand Prix, but from 10am on Saturday, I settle down and trade the market until the end. I initially was losing £5 or so a Qualifying session, until Formula 1 entered its European season and I think the win is just reward for the effort I have put into this throughout the year.

One final point; when Fernando Alonso won Pole this season, I had laid at the peak. How appropriate therefore, that I back Giancarlo Fisichella at his peak. In both instances, the one trade was only a part of the end result, but it sure feels neat to have my first ever 1,000 winner.

With my jaw still on the floor (maybe for the 4th time as a Betfair trader), and having reached for a beer, I then settled down to watch the Challenge Cup Final and in the drama of the F1, I had forgotten about my open position on the Rugby. And Huddersfield had drifted from the 1.9s to the low 1.8s, taking several of my Warrington bets. However, given the above success, I decided to keep my Warrington position open for longer than usual and their early try rewarded me.

From then on, I decided to equalise my position for around £150 on either team and to keep my draw trade open having backed the draw heavily pre match and having over £3,000 on the draw. (The £125 profit was largely on the CC Winner after the Semi Finals had been played. Betfair had opted to settle the Saints and Wigan bets which saw nearly £200 come out of my account (I had hedged these positions for effectively no loss during the Semi Games) but was now showing around £80 green on either remaining finalist. Thankfully my bank was large enough to cope with this, but it seems beyond stupid that in settling bets early you can effectively turn even an all green book into a heavier green but remove a user’s funds!)

As for trading the game, I opted to only trade the draw given that I was still hyped up from the Formula 1 and that there was enormous liquidity on the draw. (I wish it was always like this!) And at Half Time, from trading the draw only, I could have taken out an additional £100 profit. There isn’t even that much matched in some games!

I opted to push my luck and largely kept my green on the draw, although I did trade bits out on the way to earning over £200 after commission.

As for the game, it has been a while since I called a game so perfectly. I guess I stepped up for the big game! I pinpointed that I expected Huddersfield to have stage fright, and they looked incredibly nervous early on whilst I also pointed out that Kevin Brown would have to be influential for Huddersfield to succeed, and when he went off injured it is fair to say that the Giants turned to headless chickens.

The only disappointment was the Man of the Match. I would have loved to see Lee Briers get the Man of the Match. I remember Lee getting Saints to Wembley almost by himself in 1997 after Bobbie Goulding was suspended only to be dropped for the final. 12 years later at least he got to play at Wembley, but given that Michael Monaghan was hardly sensational, I would have liked to see Briers get the Lance Todd trophy. At least he did get his drop goal though!

The other point about the game was how nice it was to see real joy on the faces of the Warrington fans on the final hooter. As a Saints fan, you don’t see that joy so much anymore. It is almost expected, and we are so used to it that it dilutes the occasion. However, Warrington had not even been to the final in nearly 20 years and it showed as the Wolves celebrated the victory in a manner fitting of the occasion.

So, almost £950 up and in need of £50 for my first £1,000 day ever; where can I find £50?

It came from my 0-0 strategy as West Ham and Blackburn played out a stalemate. I ended up laying off some at 1.03 and 1.01; I wanted the £1,000 figure and was not going to risk it for an extra £2! Especially when I had been looking to hedge the Birmingham v Tottenham and West Ham v Blackburn 0-0s only for Tottenham to score as it was becoming a possibility.

So again, the real profit was not the amount shown in the Profit and Loss but as you can understand I am not really too bothered about that! The one downside is that this will almost certainly open up the Premium Charge for me but I guess that is a concept that anyone who is successful at this game will have to face.

I was also going to post on my Sunday activities, including possibly my best trading performance (for less than a tenth of the profit of the above!) but given the, as usual, ridiculous length (over 2,000 words - is anyone here? Comment for your free prize!) I will save that for another post where I will also outline my brand new e-book, available for £54.99.

Finally, there is no free prize, or e-book. But I’d still love it if you comment!

Ashes regained

2009-08-25T22:11:00.001+01:00

Let’s not go over the top, a cricket match is not a life defining moment, but being there as England regained the Ashes is something that will live with me for the rest of my life and I’m already looking to frame my ticket stub!

I have spent the vast majority of this Summer travelling around the country watching what was a fascinating series. A big change from last Summer which saw my cricket tickets gather dust or be used by friends as I was in and out of hospital! From a week in Cardiff, to two days at Edgbaston to the Headingley disaster before one day at the Oval, which turned out to be a lucky choice.

I never thought I would get to the Oval. When tickets went on general sale, I booked the day off work and waited for tickets to go on general sale, only for the Oval to refuse to allow new customers to sign up to buy tickets online. I don’t know how that qualifies as general sale but I was resigned to missing the last test.

Further, when the ECB offered tickets to the Supporters club, they combined the two London tests, and as I wanted to make a first trip to Lord’s, I put that down as my first two choices with day four at the Oval being the third and last choice. And the rest as they say, was history.

It really was a fantastic summer, full of sun, beer and over-priced food. Too much of the last one and probably too much of the second one! Was the cricket as high in quality as 2005? No. Was it as widely embraced by the public as 2005? No. However, that should not take away from the Series because it was still full of highs and lows, drama and good cricket contested in absolutely the right way. I would even say that the booing of Ricky Ponting, whilst unfortunate, was more in a pantomime villain type of way as opposed to being full of any real malice. His standing ovation on Sunday proved that.

As for the cricket, I am amazed at those who look at the statistics and therefore declare England “lucky”. It’s like looking at a football league table and thinking that the table should be arranged by goal difference.

Of course Australia will have the better statistics. When they played well, they dominated statistically. Of course they will lead the wicket tables; they took 19 wickets in Cardiff to England’s 6, and 20 to 10 in Headingley. Meanwhile, England’s victories saw them take 40 wickets to 35. Let us also not forget that Australia had two innings to England’s one at Edgbaston and their dominance at Cardiff.

Yet, and this is the key distinction, where former Australian outfits were like trained SAS marksmen, able to knock you out with military precision from 200 metres, this outfit were unable to knock you out from 5 yards out with any assortment of weaponry.

In Cardiff for example, Ricky Ponting declared too late. Forget the praise he got for taking two wickets at the end of Saturday. Why were Australia batting all through Saturday morning with a poor weather forecast? At this point, they were 150 ahead with a maximum of 5 sessions remaining (The weather forecast had all but ruled out Saturday evening). Therefore, even if England were to score at 100 runs per session, they would need to bat at least four sessions before they could be safe of not losing, and if Ponting could not trust his team to bat out one session, then Australia did not deserve the win. It was this indiscretion, and the obvious fighting qualities of the England team that gave them the edge going forward.

Let’s also not forget the Australian collapses in the first innings at Lord’s, Edgbaston and the Oval. Those wickets were hardly unplayable and Australia were largely able to escape from Edgbaston due to the rain; the majority of their runs coming once the match was all but over as a contest and given their batting to date, it would not have inspired confidence that they would have been able to hold out had the prospect of a result been realistic.

Even when they did win, they did so when any team would have been able to capitalise on a dire England performance. So yes, the Series was close, and the statistics show Australia to have more runs, but let’s remember that at Crunch time, the Aussies folded like a deckchair and that is the reason why England have, deservedly, regained the Ashes on a day that I will treasure for the rest of my life.

As for my trading, I managed to achieve my worst ever loss this weekend on the cricket. Despite the above analysis, my natural pessimism lead me to constantly back Australia. Heck, if they were to somehow win this, then I would want a refund for the rest of the Summer! This, plus if it was going to go to Day 5, I would want some money in the bank to allow me to buy a ticket from somewhere! However, with my phone battery still acting up, and with me not being 100% aware of all the bets I placed (I had forgot that some were unmatched), it ended up with me losing a lot more than what I thought I had! But given the England victory, it’s hard to really be too upset!

My other trading for the week was fairly impressive. Whilst I never foresaw the way the two TV games went on Thursday and Friday, I managed to react to claim around £100 on each and whilst I didn’t have a great week predicting, I did manage to almost break even thanks to Wakefield’s victory although Harlequins’ loss to Hull did really surprise me.

I also managed to complete some great Formula 1 Trades over the weekend despite not seeing any of the racing! Some of it was undoubtedly luck however! And I’ll expand on that in my next post, as I will with a good football trade from last night on the Liverpool v Aston Villa match whilst I will also look forward to the Challenge Cup final on Saturday although it is obviously disappointing to only have one RL game to look forward to this weekend!

Finally, I was trying to complete another free bet offer only to be cut off halfway through, re-inforcing my opinions of bookmakers. They only make the free bets offer to take advantage of those who can’t resist, and whilst I can’t really blame them for looking to turn away custom from regular winners, the fact that they are seemingly so happy to take money from people who might not be able to help themselves is nothing short of a complete disgrace. I almost had the last laugh, as a 25/1 shot almost came in from a £50 stake but despite reaching as low as 4 on Betfair, it didn’t win. (And whilst I had only laid off 80% of my stake, I did not manage to profit as the market crashed so soon and so quickly that I couldn’t respond quickly enough due to eating my lunch! Ah well, c’est la vie!)

Emulating Usain Bolt

2009-08-21T12:57:00.001+01:00

No, this post isn’t about my dash from the near end of Platform 1 at Manchester Piccadilly to the far end of Platform 14 (which I made by jumping down the last 5 steps as the whistle went for the train to depart…) but rather Bolt’s insistence on playing down his tremendous achievements. If you listen to the man after he finishes a race, you would believe that he has finished outside the medals despite the fact that he has just smashed a world record.

Now, I am far away from achieving any world records, but if you listened to me after any game, you would expect me to have made a massive loss and never to have won anything although this is more a case of my never ending quest for perfection and refusal to accept satisfaction!

However, believe me when I say that last night’s National League game was my worst trading performance.

Being off work to watch the deciding Ashes test provides me with the opportunity of having my Netbook tuned into Betfair to monitor prices all day and for most of the season, the price on the favourite in the National League game has crashed down during the day of the game.

However, I failed to get onto this as the price seemed so low to begin with and my attempts to trade the match in the hour before the match to get some green on the draw went very wrong as the market sensed Batley were too low and pushed the price up. Mr Lumpy did appear briefly, but I refused to bail and even threw more money at the game and then as Lumpy disappeared, I was looking at a substantial red before kick off. However, being sure of a Halifax win, I moved all my red onto Batley but kept some green on the draw thinking that if Batley were to keep it close, the draw price would save me.

Now, at this time, I also made the mistake of not fully concentrating on the market and getting distracted by a conversation and to complete the vicious circle, I then got so annoyed at myself for having been needlessly distracted, that I approached the game in the wrong frame of mind. Don’t get me wrong, you don’t need to get pumped up and exercise before trading a match, but I find it is a good idea to spend 10 – 15 minutes looking at the market and thinking about the match and possible early events and the price swings that would mirror the events; getting yourself in tune with the match so to speak.

So, not only did I approach the game wrongly, I missed the first ten minutes and found myself joining a match in which Batley had scored first and had a 6-0 lead. And then there was the slope. Now, for those of you who don’t follow rugby league, Batley’s home ground is subject to a large slope which tends to produce vastly different performance levels and with Batley having the slope in the first half, I was effectively opposing a runaway train. So, I turned myself on, and backed Batley some as they continued to crash down, before believing that Halifax were too large, I backed Halifax and for once, my luck was in, as Halifax then scored through a 50/50 Video Referee decision although fearing the worst, I had actually traded some out waiting for the decision.

However, I still had the chance to get out for almost no loss, when Batley scooped up on a loose ball and scored. However, if the above decision was 50/50, this one should have been 0/100 as the Halifax player was blatantly tripped only for the Video Referee to ignore this and give the try. It’s hard to argue with increasing calls to remove the Video Referee when you see such blatant decisions be wrong. A couple of weeks ago, Blackpool winger Damian Munro was sent off and suspended for one match after an identical trip. Consistency, where art thou?

So, at Half Time, Batley were in the 1.1s and I had a significant red on the Bulldogs. What do I do next? Obviously, I lay Batley and back the draw. Going against the slope and with a 22 point lead, Batley were too low and the draw price was absurd at the high 40s. Halifax are in a rut, but they can score points, and a 22 point gap against an inferior side, going with the slope, is very little and the market eventually realised, pushing Batley upto 1.24 and the draw coming into the 30s so much so that I could get out for no loss and I did due to an error. When Halifax were awarded a penalty at the start of the second half, I thought it had been given to Dewsbury and looked to largely lay off before realising my error, and keeping some money on Halifax.

Anyway, Halifax scored four consecutive scores to level the game up at 28 all with ten t go and give me a green screen of £100. Don’t be fooled however by the nice green, that was pathetic. I had identified a dream trading opportunity, and had largely bailed too soon and most of the £100 profit had come from my draw trading, which I had given away too much in the 10s and 20s when the draw eventually crashed down into middle single figures. Now, I advocate backing the draw quite strongly and have done pretty well in this regard despite only 3 TV games ending up as a draw and part of this is due to my draw trading which regularly sees me take a few ticks on a £10 stake and keep the profit on the draw. Whilst that is nice, too often I am giving away value which is only going to hurt in the long run.

Anyway, my evening wasn’t over yet as Batley scored to take the lead and I ended up getting amounts matched on Halifax at 8 and 16 and on the Draw at 40. Of course, at this time, I didn’t really trade out and they didn’t come in, leaving me with around £200 on Halifax and £300 on the Draw at the full time whistle and whilst £115 was a nice eventual return from the game, the fact is that my net scoreboard suffered a massive red due to my worst performance of the year by some distance.

And speaking of rubbish ideas, before I briefly get onto looking at this weekend’s games, allow me to explain my latest strategy, which is probably as ridiculous as it sounds.

Now, with the RL season approaching its conclusion, I don’t really have any solid ideas to fall back on, especially with the F1 season also nearing the end of its European season.

So, my latest idea is to back 0-0 in every Premier League game to earn £50 increasing the stake sufficiently to cover previous losses. One thing that my RL trading has allowed me to accumulate is a large bank and whilst 0-0s are a rare score, they (hopefully) occur often enough to make a profit.

As for a losing run, a bank of £500 would cover 27 games and a bank of £1,000 36 games and if that happens, then I would walk away, admitting that this idea has failed.

Obviously this idea should be ignored unless you have a very large bank, but as the saying goes, money makes money. Of course, there are significantly easier ways to make money, but the idea is to earn money with little work.

There are also two other advantages with this approach. The first is that at the moment I am a trader and strongly averse to gambling. Hopefully this strategy will allow me to develop the ability to let good trades run longer and become more accustomed with having money at risk. It didn’t start well as I couldn’t follow Wednesday’s games due to the 0-0 on the Birmingham v Portsmouth game but hopefully it will improve and whilst my natural instinct would have been to trade out, at 1.15, the price seemed to large for a game with only 2 minutes of injury time left.

Secondly, is the Premium Charge. Obviously, this approach will see me lose lots of money before I win money and whilst I will end up in profit, the hope is that the money turned over will be sufficient to placate the Premium Charge and possibly build up a nice enough sanctuary for the start of the 2010 RL season and if not, I trust myself to cut my losses and move on.

So, looking ahead to this weekend’s RL tips and I would like to re-iterate that I accept no liability for typing errors or just getting it plain wrong! These are my thoughts and useful for me to run through. By all means, feel free to use them, but if they go against you, you probably won’t be able to cut and run as quickly as I can.

Anyone who is familiar with my posts on the Betfair forum will be familiar with my thoughts on Hull v Harlequins. I would initially have Harlequins as the team more likely to win. Can Hull win? Of course, and with my tip, they probably will, but the 9/4 that was available with Bookmakers was absurd and something that went quickly. I have kept monies in Bookmakers who I have taken free bet offers up on with the possibility of taking prices if they so appealed and this was my first chance to do so, although I am obviously wishing that I had placed more than the £37.50 I did!

Why do I like Harlequins? If you look at the form, you see they have won 1 from 9 whilst Hull have won 2 from 12 but whilst Hull appear to have no creativity, Harlequins will have Danny Orr, Luke Dorn, Chad Randall and Rob Purdham. Quins also have a more desperate mentality needing to win for the playoffs, and their best form has come away from home. Of course, Hull will be playing for pride and with the pressure off, they could surprise, but 9/4 was a ridiculous price. Still, we have seen this season that a ridiculous price does not always equal a victory.

Unfortunately, the Friday SKY game looks like being a damp squib with Huddersfield sending out their reserves. Hopefully people will recognise this and come together on the handicap market, but it is doubtful. I just hope that Huddersfield get the same stick that Saints have received for performing similar antics before, which the records actually show can disjoint the team and gives Warrington the edge in the final for now in my opinion.

Speaking of Warrington, they need to win to maintain playoff hopes against Wakefield on Friday and they have a reasonably strong squad. Without Danny Brough Wakefield may lack creativity and the market on Betfair currently looks appropriate as both teams have question marks. That said, I think the current value lies slightly with Wakefield although I feel more comfortable having backed Wakefield at 4 on Betfair overnight than I would if I backed them now at 3.5.

The other Friday game sees Salford play Hull KR. As I mentioned last week, I am uncomfortable backing against a Salford side that have shown they can beat anyone. However, whilst I have a dislike for odds on shots, Hull KR in the high 1.4s seems another case of home bias as Hull KR have a chance of 3rd place and will be on a maintainable high after last week’s victory over St Helens.

I will be in Larndarn for the 5th test over the weekend so I haven’t analysed the Sunday games that much. As for the Saturday game, my only comment would be that whilst a crisis usually draws a team together, having 6 players deported will probably mean that whatever their spirit, Celtic have no chance against Leeds. My only surprise is that someone is willing to lay Leeds at 1.03.

Bradford v Catalans sees another case of home bias. Whilst Bradford are in good form, and Catalans can struggle away, I think the current prices are more favourable to Catalans, although I think it is more a case of slight home bias rather than outstanding value.

As for the other Sunday game, it is a tough one. The market has displayed a huge love for Wigan this year, and they have been one of the most unprofitable teams to back. However, Castleford have struggled at home this year and the home side bias could ensure that Wigan are priced favourably. Ultimately, this is a game however where the best opportunities will come in running, and as this is a game that I will be unable to follow, I will probably blind back the draw and hope for the best.

Still, all of this will pale into insignificance in comparison to the real sporting event this weekend. The decider at the Oval. Unfortunately, James Anderson’s streak without a duck has gone, but hopefully England will be able to retain the Ashes although the odds don’t look too good at the moment. Still, come on England.

Is an e-book the best way to profit and a review of Sunday

2009-08-17T22:02:00.001+01:00

There seems to be a lot of people offering training courses or e-Books or tipping services at the moment, it definitely seems the new thing to do and I had my first experience of tipping this week!

Well, not really, except that someone happened to misunderstand my analysis of the Salford v Harlequins game which culminated in them backing Harlequins and losing money although with 5 minutes to go, they would have looked to be in a pretty position.

Firstly, this is entirely my fault. Regular readers of the blog will be familiar with both my general trends (Away underdogs) and writing style (Streams of consciousness before sleep!) but for a new reader, it is very easy to see why they thought Harlequins would be the tip.

Being a rare Saturday with no Rugby League and Cricket, I had actually ventured over to Sheffield for the day and can honestly say that after receiving the comment via e-mail, I felt like genuine rubbish. Here was someone who had placed their faith in my analysis and had ultimately lost. Maybe I shouldn’t have. After all, no-one forced this person to follow my analysis, but that is the type of person I am. Loathe to take any risk even when the odds are massively in my favour, my DNA is simply incompatible with that of investing.

So I don’t think there’s any danger of me releasing an e-book or promoting a tipping service anytime soon. Heck, I was sweating on Saturday over my £20 on Salford, desperately trying to trade out only to find the liquidity skinnier than a supermodel. That is clearly an irrational reaction and one that I need to look to change but again, as regular readers know, I have been trying without much success for a long time now!

As for the whole concept of e-Books and trading courses, my own opinion is largely against them. Not because I think the promoters are conmen (in the main) but because I started out on Betfair with nothing except the blogging community and my own thoughts and latterly the Betfair forum (Rugby) and the Racingtraders forum.

Put frankly, I don’t think I would be in the position I am in today if I had access to an e-Book or trading courses. The fact is that the best strategies are the one you learn yourselves. You need to learn the markets and learn how to react. I have obsessively studied Formula 1 Markets, Rugby League Markets and Correct Score Football markets to get to where I am today.

Now, obviously having a helping resource is a great thing and one that can really help, but I find they help best once you have knowledge of the basics. You don’t want to be blind to one person but to take their advice on board and use it in conjunction with your own opinions and that is partly why I always advise people never to follow my tips. I am pretty decent at knowing when things are going against me and bailing out and switching positions. You probably won’t be. If you study the markets or know the games, then my comments will help a hell of a lot more but if you blindly rely on my comments, you’ll likely be stuffed. (The other reason is my nervous DNA. If I sweat over £20 on a market given my profit to date, imagine how I would feel if I had people’s holidays riding on my comments!)

There are definitely enough free resources out there at the moment to use in connection with your own study before then accepting the professional help. For what its worth, through the free resources, I have happened to get to know a couple of people who I know are not only genuine but also very good at what they do. Still, it would be wrong for me to recommend them, especially as I do not use their services! All I will say is that they aren’t charging £55 per month despite reportedly earning a six figure sum, somewhat berating people recently for wanting too much money and then offering such ingenious advice as the price may go up but could also go down. Subscription services to the initial target must not be going as well as planned.

Anyway enough of that, I never used to be so cynical! I wish I wasn’t, nothing like the wide eyed naïveté of youth.

It is another sign of greediness / my current ability that I was very disappointed to have only earned around £100 on Sunday. I made around £60 on Hull KR v Saints after the initial spike when Saints went 4 – 0 up but once again traded out too soon. I lost on the 1.01 train that was Wakefield v Catalans but then managed £75 on Huddersfield v Bradford.

It is that £75 which is the most annoying. Not only did I call Bradford as the value selection but I called saving money back if Huddersfield got the first try, and then the 1.1 rule also came in good use as Bradford drifted out to 1.3. After all that, £75 is clearly a disappointing return.

So what went wrong?

Well firstly the liquidity was poor. I didn’t want to get on the wrong side of a 1.01 so used smaller stakes than usual. That was sensible. Secondly, I traded out too soon, after Bradford scored their first try in fact and once I have green, I do tend to go more conservative. This was not so sensible. I have mentioned before my quandary in SKY games of backing underdogs. As a market trader, I know that any comeback will lend profits that way so it always seems sensible never to overload in case the favourite storms clear, but possibly I should be using my judgement more. Anyway, with another 22 TV games to go this season, I won’t dwell too much on my mistakes but rather look to rectify them in the close season.

A final comment on my RL trading. I reviewed my mid season projections and once again, they seem very poor. Goes to show that whilst I can identify value and read games in play, I am definitely less able at predicting long term events!

A quick note on my football trading which continues to disappoint. My major issue at the moment is with pre match trading. I laid 0-1 and 1-1 in Man Utd v Birmingham expecting them to drift. (0-1 did in the Chelsea v Hull game) and 1-1 was around the bookies price and whilst there was large amounts to back, small amounts were available to lay. Ultimately, both went the other way so much so that if I had doubled my stake when I bailed, I would have still had a nice profit by kick off. Obviously late team news played a part, but once again I got the pre match direction totally wrong, and the effect of this limited me to a £5 win in the game.

I had a similar experience in Liverpool v Tottenham with any unquoted, and eventually bailed at Half Time for around a £10 loss although had I gone out, I would have won a nice amount. I am struggling to read the likelihood of a goal and the market reactions thereto, but have started scalping 0 – 0 reasonably well. Maybe I would be best served by just doing the 0 – 0 whilst observing the market in the interim. Something to definitely consider this week.

Finally, to end on a non trading note, I was left relieved by the England squad but disappointed. Relieved at no Mark Ramprakash, but underwhelmed by Jonathan Trott and Monty Panesar. If a rookie can be relied upon, there is little reason for not going with Adil Rashid over Monty Panesar who had an excellent performance in the County Championship at the weekend. Rashid looks to be getting more turn, bowls with greater variation and can chip in with the bat. He is also more of an unknown quantity. Quite simply, I don’t get England’s plan with Rashid. They are disrupting his 4 day season, where he does need experience, to turn up and play one day games, something which he has never even performed to a mediocre level at.

As for the batting, I called Ravi Bopara flopping at 3 before the Series began and was sad to be proved correct. That said, I would have gone with the experience and know how of Rob Key. Admittedly, I have never watched too much of Jonathan Trott so I cannot be 100% certain but I am not sure that he is the answer. I am also sceptical of moving Ian Bell about. Bell is a player who I really rate, unlike most. However, I believe his future does not lie at 3 but 4 or 5. Bell can score runs and the questions about his mentality, whilst justified, are overblown. Bell has performed admirably in comparison to Alistair Cook for a while now but whilst Bell always appears to be the scapegoat, Cook seems to be the golden boy? I am also undecided about getting tickets for day 5. I have to return to work on Tuesday so am faced with a dash up to Leeds on Tuesday AM or a dash through London on Monday evening to catch the last train. Neither seems an attractive proposition, but missing England winning the Ashes seems even worse!

As always, feel free to leave comments. Like other bloggers, I always really appreciate any comments!

A disappointing evening

2009-08-14T23:31:00.000+01:00

It always seems that whenever I am most bullish about a weekend’s schedule the more I seem likely to be proved incorrect and it is fair to say that this weekend did not get off to the best start possible with Leeds thrashing Castleford 76 – 12. I did speculate that Leeds had the ability to annihilate a side before the end of the season and they did so in spectacular fashion with winger Ryan Hall scoring five tries alone. I don’t think the end result makes my initial position any worse however. It seems like Leeds were at the top of their game and Castleford the bottom. Replay the game 100 times and this might happen 2 or 3, but I equally think that Castleford would win and contest more than their starting price suggested.

The SKY game was a damp squib from 30 minutes onwards as Wigan raced to 1.01. It had to happen sooner rather than later I suppose and I can only say that I traded the game terribly. I have a difficulty in backing underdogs on SKY because, if the score goes against you, there is very little in the way of recovery whereas the longer a game is close, the more I know I can trade the market to build green on the value selection. Such a thought means that I dip in and out of the underdog and that was evidenced in so far as I largely missed Warrington’s score early on which sent Wigan out to the 1.4s. I had managed to build around £50 green on Warrington and around £750 on the draw but that would all come to nothing as Wigan raced back as Warrington tired and saw the influential Lee Briers leave the field. I ended up losing £10 on the main match market.

I had also traded abysmally as I got too caught up in reacting to the events in the first half, overstating the value of changes of possessions, penalties, knock ons etc. However, I won’t dwell on those too much because I probably only have around 20 games left to trade this season and I should focus on what I do right to make the largest profit I can. I do feel however that my confidence in predicting has taken an irrational hit tonight; I know my strategy is capable of extended losing runs, and getting just 2 wrong is hardly the end of the world, but it just reflects my loss avoidance mentality when really a profit and gain mentality is more appropriate for my strategy.

A quick note on the football as the Premier League starts tomorrow. I have looked to trade 4 games so far to warm me back into the swing of things and I must say that on the whole they went okay if not brilliantly.

To recap, my current strategy is to scalp 0 – 0 down to 6, back 2-1 and 1-2, cover the higher scores and back unquoted. I have yet to decide on liability size for the upcoming season. I clearly have more money to play with, but clearly need to learn more about the markets.

In fact, I almost wonder if just scalping 0 – 0 and leaving it at that would be best given this week’s performances – the fact is that I have struggled in trading sensibly after the first goal goes in. For instance, a goal to the favourite sees my 2-1 and 1-2 backs almost entirely reliant on an underdog goal next and although unquoted can cover this, maybe I need to consider 3-0 although the relative size of this would mean that I could not cover unquoted and a couple of quick goals would leave that very precarious.

However, it’s all food for thought at the moment. I need to develop further in this market and whilst it will never be as profitable as RL is, I’m hopeful of getting to know the market well enough to be able to make a good profit, as I felt confident of doing towards the end of last season. I am out tomorrow but will look to trial the system on Sunday, although I must say that neither game looks a good fit for my strategy, but I don’t really know enough about football to be confident in that!

Only four rounds left

2009-08-13T23:05:00.000+01:00

With only thirty seven Super League games left this season it really is time to start making the most of what is left and thankfully there seems to be plenty of impressive opportunities this weekend.

It only seems like yesterday that Leeds kicked off the season at home to new boys Celtic but my trading has evolved massively since then although I will ultimately look back at this season with a feeling of what if. There have been several huge opportunities that I never grasped and several swings which I bailed on too soon. In fact, I still am, and I keep doubting that the swings will keep coming but hopefully they will.

And that is the problem with predictions and why I get so nervous when I stick my neck on the line. It also explains why I can talk myself in to and out of almost anything! It is alright considering something to be “value”. I feel that I can certainly nail that concept but at the end of the day, the game will come down to 80 minutes of individual play which has an enormous variable. The difference between losing 40 – 0 and winning 40 – 0 is smaller than ever and whilst that will obviously lead to a natural favouritism towards underdogs, there is very little justification when you find yourself well down after the side you fancied gets a beating.

Indeed, I keep expecting the law of averages to pull me back but so far so good largely, and I just hope that I can defy the law of averages for the rest of the season.

So the weekend starts on Friday with Leeds v Castleford and Warrington v Wigan. Immediately, I am drawn towards Leeds v Castleford. Both teams had last week off and Castleford lost their last game whilst Leeds won their last game. Leeds have home advantage. As regular readers know, that makes it the perfect time to favour Castleford.

Obviously in a one off game, Leeds are favourites. Clear favourites. But when Castleford are a best price of 5/1 with the bookmakers, I know which team I would feel more comfortable backing. I keep expecting Leeds to come good, and I have little doubt that they will hammer one or two teams before the end of the season, maybe even this week but in considering value, I will be looking to back Castleford.

Last week saw Bradford go from 1.3 home favourites against Harlequins to around 2.9 underdogs when they met 6 days later in London and Friday sees two teams meet for the second time in 6 days in Wigan v Warrington. Last Saturday, Warrington secured their first trip to the Challenge Cup Final since 1990 with an impressive victory over Wigan who were pre match favourites at 1.8 in the morning and as low as hilarious 1.2s at just 8 – 0 up.

However, despite losing, Wigan are favourites again and there are three key reasons why. The first is home advantage. The second is that the market has had a man crush on Wigan all year but the third is slightly more genuine in that Warrington have a lot of players out injured. However, when considering Warrington’s first 13, it still looks more than adequate. The problem will likely come in their bench where they will probably field several debutants who are unlikely to have the size to match up with Wigan’s substitutes. (There is also the bounceback factor which means that I automatically consider a bias towards Wigan.)

However, the 1.2s is a ridiculous starting price, although we must equally consider the effect that an early score by a home favourite has on the market in SKY games which means that any initial trade should ensure that some money is kept behind to lay Wigan further if they go ahead. So, whilst a revengeful Wigan should be favourites against an injury hit Warrington side, again the value lies with the underdogs.

I just wish I had followed my advice of not getting involved in the Betfair markets until they have properly settled as I looked to lay Wigan before I had received correct team news although I still believe that the price I laid Wigan at was fair even given Warrington’s injury news.

Moving onto Saturday and there are a further two opportunities. Salford look set to recall Richie Myler and have produced some impressive performances this year defeating both Saints and Leeds. They travel to Harlequins where Quins are a best price of 2/7. Again, the Quins should be favourites, however how short would they be had they not capitulated against Bradford last week? That performance actually makes them more likely to win in my view as they know that they will be in desperate need of victory to reach the playoffs.

Further, the travelling distance involved in playing Harlequins can give them a legitimate home advantage, even if they have tended to perform better away from home this year, and the Quins look to be almost back to full strength. Still, Quins look too short.

The Saturday evening game of Catalans v Hull also sees, surprise surprise, a home favourite looking way too short. Again, I don’t dispute the favourite tag but I do dispute the fact that Catalans are a best price of ¼ to win.

Again, this needs qualification. Hull have been woeful recently and they definitely have injury worries. However, Catalans haven’t been superbly impressive either recently. Looking set to be without their key player Thomas Bosc, Catalans only just scraped home against Salford last week whilst Hull were able to put their feet up and rest. Further, the game is being played at almost a neutral venue, although obviously Catalans will keep the geographical advantage of playing the game in Southern France where the conditions will naturally favour them.

Still, experience tells me that they are too short and despite Catalans needing to win like Harlequins, I know where I would want my money if I could stand the strain of betting as opposed to trading.

Onto Sunday’s games and amazingly, I agree with the bookies on one game. I think the Hull KR v Saints game is priced up correctly and can see no clear edge there.

The other afternoon game sees Wakefield v Celtic, and with Wakefield a best price of 1/16, if you could lay that, well, it wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world. Obviously Celtic are massive underdogs, but at that price, there are definitely worse ways to spend a few pounds. Celtic have defeated Bradford and Wigan this year and if they can produce a good performance and catch Wakefield on an off day stranger things have definitely happened.

Sunday evening sees Huddersfield host Bradford in the SKY game and my immediate question is whether the liquidity will be bursting through like it was when Hull KR hosted Wigan on a Sunday night or whether the liquidity will be all but absent like it was when Catalans hosted Harlequins. My guess is that it will be somewhere in the middle.

Again, I lean towards Bradford being the value selection here. Huddersfield will still be on a high following last week’s Semi Final victory and it can be very hard to replicate the necessary intensity in a game situation after such a great win, although equally it could inspire confidence and allow them to produce a great display. Bradford meanwhile have been inconsistent all year. They have defeated Saints and Leeds but on the whole, underperformed dreadfully although last week’s thrashing of Harlequins should give them a good confidence boost without being such a great win that they can afford to sit back and rest.

Again, in a one off match, Huddersfield should be favourites but at a best price of 4/11 with the bookmakers there is very little value there long term although as advised in the Wigan game, keep something back as an early Huddersfield try will likely crash the price to 1.1s.

So, there we have some quick thoughts on this weekend’s game and they aren’t much different from my usual fare but I do feel that this weekend when I looked at the prices, I was very surprised by three or four whereas usually there is only one stand out price. Obviously, Sod’s law probably indicates that this means that I will be wrong this week, but anyone who has followed my hints so far can probably afford to lose a couple of quid, as such an approach will invariably do from time to time.

Just a quick note on Thursday night’s game which is becoming ever more difficult to trade as the liquidity continues to decline. Still, I did manage to earn a respectable profit of £90 largely through laying Barrow in the 1.1s as the market overreacted to a fast starting favourite and generally fell in love with Barrow. The draw price was bizarre again as it stayed at a generally low 20 – 30s for the first half and then exploded upto 120 as Widnes took the lead in the second half to go 10 – 8 up. Most odd and from then, the price was definitely higher than it should have been. My biggest regret in the game was in backing Barrow at 1.5 after Widnes took the lead to green up. It was a regret because 90 seconds later with nothing further happened, the price was as high as 1.7. Given that I was backing between £300 - £500 back, I’ll let you calculate the missed profit! (Although I must note that Barrow were looking the better side at this point and one knock on or missed tackle or debatable refereeing decision could have crashed price.) It just goes to show though that however experienced you are in the markets, one big player can always do strange things, especially in the less liquid markets.

Anyway, hopefully I will be able to build on this good start with some good underdog performances this weekend. Given the current prices, even just one victory could result in almost breaking even but hopefully there will be more than that although I must say that surely we are due for a 1.01 express in the TV matches shortly!

Finally, with the Premier League starting on Saturday, I will aim to post my thoughts on my Correct Score strategy, to try to make sense of it if possible, tomorrow as well as hopefully being able to comment on a very exciting Friday match.

Quick Update

2009-08-10T23:05:00.002+01:00

As you can see, I haven't updated the blog in a while due to being away the past two weekends in Birmingham and Leeds and frankly, for reasons of weather and ineptitude respectively, I almost wish I had not bothered!

My time in between these days was spent as a mixture of being ill and deciding to reject all offers received to complete the LPC against my wishes. Sometimes wanting something is not enough.

With respect to my RL trading, I'll post a more detailed review sometime this week. In short however, I can only say I wish I had a phone that had decent battery life. (I have been able to upgrade for 6 months but a combination of not wanting to pay £200 and laziness means that I am stuck with a battered MDA Vario III, which appears to lose power quicker than Usain Bolt.)

In short however, I had a great position on Wigan away at Saints, only for my phone to die and lose £40. I saved battery power for the end of Warrington v Leeds, but having left Walkabout on account of my friend's protestations, I "only" ended up with £200, which when you consider that I initally chose to place my refund of the Edgbaston ticket on Warrington and the Draw, is not brilliant!

Having returned home on Sunday, I did manage a decent win on Bradford v Harlequins, although I did lose some of my green when my computer crashed as Bradford took the lead (I am noticing a pattern here..!) and then panicked when no-one was taking Harlequins backs once they resumed the lead and gave away ridiculous value.

I then decided to take a break from Thursday's National League game, only to get involved in the last ten minutes for £10 or so. Traded Friday's Super League game on the train home, believing that Salford were too short at Half Time although again, with 5% of battery power remaining and with going through tunnels, I missed out on some great opportunities.

I then managed to win £60 on Warrington v Wigan despite being at the cricket although again, this was impacted by poor battery life and you know... watching the cricket! I even managed to lose £7 on Bradford v Harlequins despite ridiculous odds after the draw price crashed and I panicked to get out of the red on the draw in play where liquidity is as scarce as clothes on Jordan.

On Sunday, I managed to watch Saints v Huddersfield in the pub and despite realising that Saints had no chance at Half Time, managed to only win enough to cover my backs of Saints in the Winners Market. Again though my phone died in the second half... I probably would have earned enough to pay for the new phone by now! But, it just seems ridiculously expensive!

I'll break them down in more detail later this week.

Just a quick note that with the RL season approaching the finish line, my attention starts to turn towards my "off-season" sports. Now, I am nowhere near as profitable on other sports as I am on RL and Formula 1, but I will probably look to trade soccer and NFL this winter.

My approach to NFL is to generally go with what I think will happen. It isn't very scienftic but it seemed to work reasonably well with small stakes last time so we will see. I am just concerned at the moment that Sky may not be covering the NFL this year, certainly they have scrapped the Pre Season coverage but that is no biggie. However, I feel that there would definitely be ways to profit further for a NFL junkie like myself, but at the moment I only have one trick up my sleeve. Hopefully that will expand soon!

A quick note on my approach to football is that this tends to resolve around the Correct Score market. I have no real feel for football, so take a market trading approach which I have outlined previously and will do so in more detail later - I am currently testing new ideas like teams do in Pre Season! I lost £6 on Aston Villa v Juventus but did win £2 on Darlington v Leeds tonight. However, I tend to approach the soccer markets in a much more relaxed fashion. I do not expect to make serious money from this, but rather use it in a relaxing and challenging manner. I used to play Pro Evolution Soccer a bit on an evening to unwind but feel that I will probably look to the Correct Score market this year, unless I start to constantly lose! However, I am hopeful of making consistent but small profits this year although it will take me some time to get reacquainted with the markets; still it should hopefully be as enjoyable as it was last year and that is the key, especially given that I'll likely be taxed 20% on any winnings!

On the train.

2009-07-30T15:37:00.000+01:00

I’m writing this latest update on the train to Birmingham; ironically enough being in the “Quiet zone” with a screaming baby. Not sure how that works…

Anyway, it was around last time that Betfair announced the conception of the “Premium Charge” and like many others, I was understandably annoyed by the concept. However, 12 months down the line, all the outrage and potential boycotts appear to have settled down, with people accepting, through gritted teeth, the premium charge.

I did remember thinking at the time that despite its obvious unfairness, at the end of the day, you would have to be in profit to be a victim and that you would need to have used up the £1,000 allowance. A concession that I knew would make me safe for a long time.

Unfortunately, my £1,000 allowance is now almost fully used up, and I am looking at being another victim of the premium charge. Suddenly the apathy that I showed towards it is no longer quite so applicable!

In terms of potential avoidance, it is fairly apparent to me that my style of trading Rugby League, which is my most profitable market, makes the charge one that I have to live with. I can’t really take my business elsewhere, and 80% of something is greater than 100% of nothing.

Recently, a general Profit and Loss per week of around £500 has resulted in a £75 premium charge, so what can I do to try to avoid this.

The only option that I can see, is to lay an event on Betfair and look to back it back elsewhere, and hope that the result goes my way. However, when you consider that I would only get 80% of any winnings if I laid the event correctly on Betfair, I would obviously require a large price difference to make this option work, so it may just have to be a tax that I pay through gritted teeth.

Looking ahead to this weekend’s Rugby League, well I’m scheduled to be at Edgbaston for Friday and Saturday before returning on Sunday. Therefore, I don’t expect to be in profit at the end of the week given my dislike of outright bets and my tendency to leave Draw backs up in all games, just in case…

However, that doesn’t mean that you can’t profit, so I’ll just briefly run through this weekend’s games, although as ever, these are mere thoughts and I am also without team news at the moment, which would obviously make a large difference.

On Friday, Huddersfield travel to Hull. Suddenly, Huddersfield look like a team that could break in to the top two which would be a phenomenal achievement. Meanwhile, Hull have been talking a good game, saying that their top 8 options are not over. However, given their injuries to their front row, and the fact that their halves look totally insipid, I would argue that they are. Of course, there are no certainties in Rugby League, but a Hull recovery would be the most surprising event of the season to me. Huddersfield could be distracted by their looming Challenge Cup Semi Final, and it is rare that I find value in odds on shots, but certainly Huddersfield are by far the better value selection at anything above 1.5, and anything approaching 1.8 (The current gap on Betfair) is extremely good value.

Salford host Wakefield on Friday and Salford will be keen to put in an improved performance in view of last week’s events, which has even seen their coach threaten legal action to possible detractors. Still, despite Salford’s likely bounce back, Wakefield should be the favourites here. Despite a poor performance last week, Wakefield’s Top 8 ambitions should ensure that they regroup and put in a solid performance. However, Salford have defeated both Saints and Leeds this year, and they aren’t a team that I would like to oppose without seeing which Salford side are going to turn up.

The other Friday night game is the real big one. Saints v Wigan. This one has the potential to be a classic and should be a great game to watch. Much will depend upon Saints’ team news seeing as how they have had a host of players ruled out through injury and illness lately. As for Wigan, they seem to have come together very nicely recently and as usual under a Brian Noble coached side, are peaking at the right time for the playoffs. Much will depend however upon how Sam Tomkins shows in his first game at Knowsley Road. Tomkins produced an excellent performance last week to bring Wigan home against Leeds and has shown nothing to suggest that the occasion will get the better of him, but he won’t be guaranteed the same freedom that he was provided with against Leeds as Saints look to get one back on their rivals after the Murrayfield debacle.

In terms of the game, four strategies would appear to be possibilities here. The first is to watch early on and trust your eyes. The second is to note that the past three Friday games have seen a team go to 1.0 and then drift out to 20+, and the third is obviously the draw. The fourth relates to the Challenge Cup Market. Ever since their defeat to Salford, Saints have drifted from 1.6 out to 1.8, whilst the bookies’ best price is still in the 1.6 range. Now, I thought Saints were good value at 1.6 and I still think they are outstanding value at 1.8. Personally, I can’t see Saints drifting much further even should they lose to Wigan, whilst with Wigan likely to be trading at around 4 before the match starts, there could possibly be a route there to explore.

Onto Saturday’s games, and whilst Catalans are favourites against Celtic, the bookies’ best price of 1/25 this morning is quite frankly hilarious and should be opposed if Betfair looks like being that low. Of course Catalans are favourites, but anything in the 1.0s should be opposed at a level that you are comfortable losing.

The Televised game is Leeds v Warrington and this is one that could produce some good trading opportunities. Historically, Warrington on SKY have been terrific to trade. Back when odds against, lay when odds on. However, Tony Smith has removed some of Warrington’s inconsistency, although he was helpless last week as they went from a 12 -0 lead to trail 20 – 12 before winning 62 – 20!

Still, Warrington have a decent record against Leeds as of late and with Tony Smith returning to his former club, you can be assured that Warrington will be keen to produce a good performance. Leeds will look to bounce back from last week’s defeat and that has to be considered, but given Leeds’ current price (1.3?), the value lies with Warrington / the Draw although as we have seen how an early score for favourites crashes the market, more money should be kept in reserve in case Leeds start well.

Last week my strongest feeling was that Castleford were overpriced against Wakefield as the Home side looked to be backed almost blindly and whilst the value isn’t as strong this time, laying Castleford at home to Hull KR would be a good move. Hull KR have been inconsistent and below par recently, but I consider this game to be pretty much a 50/50 affair. However, home advantage will once again make Castleford the favourites, and when that happens, the correct approach would be to back Hull KR. It may not work in a one off match, but no one will have gone broke backing the away side this year.

The other Sunday game sees Bradford host Harlequins where team news could be crucial. Harlequins have been dreadful recently, but with Danny Orr and Luke Dorn back, if either Rob Purdham or Chad Randall also make it back, then the current 4.3 best price on Betfair looks very good value, whilst if they are both out, then Quins will likely be larger but still the value selection.

Of course in a game like this at the end of the season where both teams need a victory for Play-off reasons, both teams will be looking to give it everything, especially Bradford given their below par form so far this season. However, whilst they are undoubtedly the favourites for the game, and are on paper the better team, the odds would appear to dictate that the value lies with their opponents. Quins are approaching desperate territory and that should produce a good performance as Brian McDermott returns to the club that he had so much success with as a player. However, once again, the key thing will be to check that team news.

So that is a brief(?) preview of the weekend’s actions typed up with a baby screaming on a crowded train and my phone not working so to deny me information on team news and the latest odds. Still, some would say that my thoughts are as relevant as a toss of the coin in determining who to back so…!

One final comment is also in response to some replies that have suggested that I am too harsh on myself when reviewing my trade. To that I would agree with but with one caveat. I have strongly commented upon the benefits of laying at 1.1.

Anyone leaving 1.1 bets to run in Super League, would have achieved a £1,900 profit in the past three weeks. Anyone who traded out at 1.3 to 1.4 in all games would also be very nicely in profit and so on… Indeed, given this recent rule, it makes me feel that the recent run of games has left me massively behind on the net scoreboard; such odds won’t always reverse and it seems like I have been pushing the car into first gear too early recently when in reality, there was still an entire street to reverse up.

Finally, I today received my second offer for the LPC, from my second choice. It seems the more that I think about my options, the harder the decision becomes. Especially with a recent BBC article trying to dissuade people from doing the LPC on account of the recent economic happenings which now see more people qualify than jobs are available and obviously that is another dimension that will factor into my decision. Indeed, it is now looking to be a very big risk and that so many things could go wrong. (I would be 25 and starting a new course with no experience and no contacts and without having undertaken any legal study for the past 4 years – Far from ideal!) Still, as we have seen recently, a lot of 1.1s have been turned over!

So I have a weekend in Birmingham to decide given the deadline on acceptances! And as you can see through the muddled state of my last paragraph, I still haven’t got a clue! I just hope the same can’t be said of my RL predictions!

My weekend... and my future?

2009-07-26T23:18:00.001+01:00

The following is a review of my trading weekend, and a life problem is inserted at the end. No idea what that’s doing here!

It is said that the sign of a great team is the ability to win when you are below par and after this weekend, I hope the same applies to traders as well.

Despite what I believe to be a rather poor trading weekend in terms of trades made, I managed to earn £571.64 from Thursday evening onwards; a figure roughly equivalent to two weeks’ net earnings. I can only be thankful that Betfair earnings are not subject to any student loan charges, although they are subject to a similar tax, one which I shall unfortunately come onto later.

It is no co-incidence that my profit and loss level has dramatically increased since my decision in April to increase my level of professionalism with regard to trading, as well as subsequent increases to risk taking and stake sizes.

Sometimes I do wonder though about the sheer amount of effort I put into my trading, however. Now, I have always been a Rugby League fan, so the preparation that I put in on Monday to Wednesday in terms of watching highlights, getting the news etc.. is nothing extra. However, from Wednesday evening things get a little more like work.

I start by looking at the prices for the National League 1 game, and look to the possibility of any early trades. I will keep up to date with the price throughout the day and then on finishing work, will look at the prices listed from Bookmakers for the Super League games where available, and start looking at the possibility of placing my odds depending upon team news. Then, obviously there is the Thursday night game to trade in play.

Adding to the mixture this week however was the Hungary Grand Prix, and I decided to look into taking some prices before the initial practice session so had to look through this on Thursday as well. Friday saw me monitoring the prices before being delayed on my way home, rushing home to set everything up and trading the in play Super League game.

With that down, I reviewed the odds on all the SL markets and the Qualification and Winner F1 Markets before heading off for a well deserved sleep.

Saturday morning saw me awake to the initial practice session, which is when I first start really trading the Qualification market and even during the break in between, I kept the market open and my thoughts are never far from this as I also go about my usual Saturday morning activities.

Upon this finishing, I load up the Super League markets, look for any opportunities in the In Play game, trade out of my pre Qualification race bets, and monitor the markets for the Saturday evening SL games. Only at the end of these do I relax for the day, although I do keep the Sunday events loaded in my pocket and will occasionally check these.

Then on Sunday, like Saturday, I get up, review the markets, complete my usual Sunday morning activities, and then there is the Formula 1 Race, quickly followed by the Sunday Rugby League games before I collapse, then review the weekend and head off to bed for another week to start.

Now, obviously I do all this of my own volition and I do it because frankly, I bloody enjoy it. I love the challenge of testing myself against the Market, and I would say that drives me a lot more than even the financial incentives, lovely though they may be. Still, I am left exhausted at the end of the week with very little time off before heading into another week.

As much as I enjoy it, I am always “on edge”, especially in play, hateful of any red, and always thinking about ways to improve. Even when I am out with friends, my subconscious thoughts will rarely venture from the markets, knowing that in most cases I have a liability there which I want to work on. Put simply, it is hard to switch off knowing that opportunities are just around the corner and a test around the next.

Still, things look set to change pretty soon. I will miss the next two weekends through being at the Ashes, get back into things for a week, before heading off to London for the final test and then hopefully, to Wembley for the Cup Final the week after should Saints get there. Then, the European Grand Prix season and the Super League season will soon be over, granting me a lot of rest and relaxation which I honestly feel I’ve really earned.

Therefore, with 4 weeks of the next 5 set to be missed, and not much left after that, it was hugely important that I enjoyed a very good weekend for reasons that I will come onto later.

Perhaps that explains why I am very self critical of my performance this weekend, that plus the sheer amount of time invested and effort utilised probably robbed me of maximum performance levels.

To quickly run through this weekend’s trades:

Thursday evening: Sheffield v Gateshead. An infuriating display of refereeing (Poor, not corrupt as some would say) really frustrated me. I managed to heavily lay Sheffield in the 1.0s believing that Gateshead were the better side and that the penalty count would ultimately even out. It didn’t, although Gateshead did come back enough to leave me with a £50 win, although I always had a much much larger figure on Gateshead. It just never came off. Still, I was satisfied with myself, although extremely frustrated with the referee.

Friday evening: We had our third consecutive 1.0 drift on a Friday night although I never really got into it. I had backed the draw massively early on, and did not really want to increase my liability on Leeds much beyond that. And any comeback would be reflected in the draw price. Wigan did come back, and when they took the lead, I had close to £300 on them. Given that they were a 1.01 train then, how did I end up with just £120 profit despite never really closing my draw bet; keeping a couple of thousand on the draw for most of the game.

Basically, the game illustrated my major flaws, which are equalising out too soon, and then succumbing to value. Now, green is green, and obviously value is value and neither are bad concepts. However, in a game where you have a massive green on the draw, there is no need to position yourself further towards the dog. Any comeback will see a drop in the draw price. In effect therefore, I was double backing the underdog, ignoring the natural drop on the favourite and ignoring the clock. A very poor performance and one which deserved a loss.

Saturday afternoon: I traded the Formula One market reasonably poorly in the practice session, opposing the drop on Lewis Hamilton far too early. A good move at a silly price for betters, but not for traders. Still, it did not ruin my position, although the usual Rosberg / Trulli late crash never really happened.

Onto Q1 and with less than a minute to go, Fernando Alonso is down in 16th with yellow flags following Jaime Alguesuari going off track. Having backed Alonso reasonably heavily, I saw the chance of him going out and laid him at 90 – 200. I kept a large green on Alonso in any case, but obviously at those odds, I am giving up a lot of green as well.

Q2 sees Rosberg and Alonso experience major price crashes, only for me to have laid further too early. Further infuriation built up in me.

Given Felipe Massa’s incident, and obviously it is without saying that the best is wished for him, the session was delayed but the market was left open, which allowed me to improve on my position only for in Q3, the timing sheets to drop.

Now, this was fortunate for me, as I would usually look to trade out way before the huge price drop in Fernando Alonso, and a seemingly premature suspension from Betfair disallowed any possibility. Thankfully, Alonso was one of my larger greens, and I earned close to £150. Another good result which was largely undeserved.

Nothing much happened in the Saints – Harlequins game, so I was then ready for the Saturday night SKY game. Obviously one of my major ploys is to back the draw pre match, but for the first time ever, I laid it. Put simply, starting at 26 was beyond absurd and I was happy to oppose it; worst case scenario would be 17.5 at HT. Again, two early scores for the home favourite, but given how dire Hull FC are these days, I could not bring myself to lay Hull KR heavily at this stage. I can honestly say I can rarely recall seeing a team so bland in attack and appearing so devoid of confidence. However, some lucky bounces, poor play by Hull KR and a general improvement from Hull FC saw them come back into it. By now I had handily taken to backing the draw again, but continued to trade poorly. Still, my belief that FC could not win and the plunge on the draw late on helped me to a near £90 win although once again, I felt it to be totally undeserved.

And breathe….

Sunday: Whilst I find qualifying easy enough to trade, I don’t find the race as easy. However, the pre race markets are slightly easier and some overnight positions, as well as some Sunday morning trades (Button from 18.5 out to 36 into 21) allowed me to start the race £90 in profit. I was very pleased by this as for once I had traded well, although there were obvious areas for improvement. (A £1,000 trader of the favourite could have achieved this much more easily for instance!) Some further tick swings during the race helped me to an eventual win of just over £100, almost doubling my previous best.

No sooner was that over did the afternoon RL start. I had not commented much upon the games beforehand, and it is probably best that I didn’t – my tipping this week was poor, but the one game I felt strongest about on Sunday was Castleford. Regular readers will know my thoughts on both away teams and underdogs, and after being matched at the generous price of 3 overnight for £30, I was fairly comfortable. However, I cannot sit back on a bet, and having completed a draw trade for £18 green on the draw, I cut my liability to Wakefield to £18 pre match and then traded the match in play and although the liquidity was short to dreadful, I had managed to achieve £25 green on Wakefield at 18 – 12 down, before Joe Westerman’s late penalty effectively sealed the match and I ended up with near enough my pre match green on Castleford of close to £35.

As for the other matches, I was surprised, and disappointed!, that Warrington never really traded in the mid 1.0s despite being 12 – 0 up, and largely missed Salford’s comeback to 12 – 20, although my belief that they were way too large at Half Time did allow me to earn nearly £25, whilst I managed to earn the princely sum of £4.99 from the Huddersfield game through small trades. I wisely avoided the half time lay of Huddersfield at 1.11. If it had been in the 1.0s though, I would have been down for the day on RL! Sadly, there didn’t seem to be the large lays available that I had seen in recent weeks. Hopefully this was a one off though! They have proved most profitable.

So, a poor weekend trading wise although a good weekend results wise, even if I do think that outright betting would be more profitable and a lot less hassle – it just isn’t me. This is a guy so risk averse that when starting a pension at 21 I put most of that in Gilts!!!

My profit and loss through Betfair and Free bets now stands at over £7,000 in total, £5,000 of which has come since 6 April. An incredible amount really and a testament to the sheer hard work I have put in, in my opinion. Obviously though that looks set to drop considerably going forward. My off-season ideas of NFL and Correct Score Football won’t bring in much, but they hopefully will prove profitable; they did produce a small profit when I was less experienced last year.

So, maybe it is time to treat myself. If my savings from work have provided this Ashes summer, what about a trip to America to watch Arizona Cardinals, or a trip to Australia for next year’s Ashes. Or, a year off work… whilst I go back to study for the Legal Practice Course.

Those of you who know me, know my love of procrastination, but I finally submitted an application for the LPC at the eleventh hour on Wednesday, and I am now faced with the biggest decision of my life, well at least since Strawberry or Vanilla ice cream on Friday evening. (On a serious note, I had anticipated applying for University / LPC before my Ashes summer and having left my job before then which was why I moved back home to St Helens in April, despite working in Leeds! No point taking a 6 month lease when I thought I would only need it for 10 weeks. The past 4 months commute has not been fun and will have to end whatever decision is made, probably.)

I should hear about my application within the next two weeks, and I would have to hand my notice in at work immediately so it is imperative that I arrive at a decision as to whether I would accept any offer, and it is an issue that is running through my mind constantly; shortening my sleep and probably effecting my trading.

Those of you who are purely interested in trading can close the window now because I will probably rant through my mind for the next two minutes in case any kind visitor can make some sense of my thoughts. (It is good to get them down on paper in any case. I have no idea why I am airing them on this blog however. Am I that desperate for clarity?)

All my way up to University, I had wanted to train as a barrister until I effectively became confused in my second year, and refused to commit to anything; getting a job whilst I thought about things. Four years later and I am still unsure! (I have suffered a fairly big injury and illness in the intervening periods which explain most of the delay!)

I had always dismissed the LPC, and had visions of returning to University and possibly going into Academia aka Student forever. However, it is becoming more and more apparent that I could not decide, and given the past six years of my life, Barrister training is out and the LPC is an option if I want to pursue law.

Anyway, with University not an option now until next year, when I will be 26, and 30 at the very least before I would probably finish my further education, the LPC has become more and more appealing. I have an interest in law, could always eventually train to become a barrister, or revert back to Academia. Heck, I could even continue as a solicitor; that’s not too bad!

However, £7,000 - £10,000 is a lot of money to spend on something which isn’t clear cut, and I also have concerns as to whether I would waste this opportunity like I have so many in my life, and how overawed I would be having not read a law textbook in four years. I also can’t completely discount the current economic climate. The course is no guarantee of a related job. Some people get those before starting the course, and I would definitely be behind the 8 ball.

If it was purely 50 / 50, the decision would be easy. It’s the fact that I’m 85 / 15 in favour that makes it so tough and further complicating matters is the emergence of a possible job at my current workplace which would make use of my law degree and allow me to research my options further.

All in all, I suspect my passion is Academia. However, passion must give way to realism and the LPC would be a great challenge; one to open more doors than it closes. It would also end my current life dissatisfaction through wasting away in a mediocre job and not really following my passions (I really don’t want another year of that above all else). The easiest answer would be rejection from the Course, and I think that will happen anyway (I always think all my trades will lose too!) but if it shouldn’t I have to be prepared. And I’m not.

And there is the end of a completely unrelated rant to the blog, and I apologise if I have wasted anyone’s time! However, to make it up to anyone who has got this far, might I suggest trading Rugby League. It’s profitable. Honest!

Coming next: The Premium Charge and more life rantings.

The harder you work, the luckier you get.

2009-07-19T21:00:00.002+01:00

I can be bloody hard on myself at times but the truth is that is how you improve.

Just over a month ago, my confidence had seemed to peak before I made some ridiculous decisions. I lost a comparatively lot of money by throwing money around without thinking and then refused to bail out of a £500 loss. A loss which six months ago would have left me devastated but made me feel like it could be a major turning point.

I don't want to get back to the over-confidence that I displayed at that time, but right now, I feel quite good, and that the £500 loss was the breakthrough I anticipated.

This weekend I primarily traded four games when to be honest, I've been feeling bloody poor.

The first game was Barrow v Whitehaven where I lost £99.99. Feeling ill clouded my judgement and I was also slightly reckless, turning down a £50 profit expecting Barrow to surge ahead in the second half only for Whitehaven to ease home in the end.

The second game I almost didn't trade as I was feeling quite ill. However, despite dealing with a very sticky API service and in a game where the fast picture guys were out in force, I had managed to secure £100 on both St Helens and Wakefield. Ironically, if I had shown the same persistence with Wakefield as I did with Barrow, I would have been in a much better position, but I stuck with my gut which despite feeling like crap is proving to be fairly accurate.

Anyway, with five minutes to go and Saints behind by 2 the draw market went scizophrenic. You could back the draw at 30+ when Wakefield had the ball, and lay the draw at 11-15 when Saints had the ball. Indeed, someone eventually pushed the draw out to 720, although only for £1 or so. After doing this a few times, I had £900 on the draw, when with time running out, Saints were awarded a penalty.

On one level, sheer luck decided this. On another level, having worked so hard on the draw this year, it was not luck but my hard work which helped me to take advantage of this. Anyway, as the kick was being lined up, having been stung to the tune of £500 by a missed kick a few weeks ago, and given that Saints had not made a kick all night, I traded out. Whilst the draw was as low as 1.2 at one point, I accepted 1.8 - 2.2 and collected my £500 hoping, as a Saints fan, for the kick to go over. It didn't and the hooter subsequently sounded immediately.

The draw is a puzzling beast. It is something that I have made a lot of money from. However, at the same time, so have persistent layers with only one draw in 140+ Super League games this season. I'm sure there are better ways to make money than laying a 2 point game with 5 minutes to go at odds of 30+, but it is showing a profit for both the layers, and the backers like me. The losers? Those who don't have the foresight to back the draw at nice odds but rather rush in at 2.0.

Anyway, another excellent return.

Onto Sunday, and I opted to discuss the game's events in the Paltalk trading room through Bettrader. Hopefully people who were there managed to learn one or two tricks and for those of you who weren't, I'll describe the afternoon below.

I traded the non televised game of Bradford v Wigan, and this is where my big breakthroughs have come recently. At first, I thought the lack of money made these games untradeable, but the fact is, that money does get matched, and at stupid odds.

Wigan, who started at 2.0, led 6 - 0 and someone pushed them down to 1.08. They were that desperate to get a bet on that they ignored any concept of value, and whilst I didn't get matched there, I did get a £200 lay at 1.25 matched at Half Time.

Now, what I did next was controversial in so far as given a large red on Wigan, I opted to offer equally silly value back, offering to back Wigan in the 1.4s. However, in an illiquid market, a profit is a profit and given that you never know if anyone will be around, it is probably safer to do this.

Anyway, Wigan scored again, and my red increased as Wigan were backed as low as 1.15. However, Bradford then came back to lead 14 - 12 with less than ten to go. Whilst I had laid Bradford for a total of £600, I had converted this into only £150, displaying more of a loss avoidance technique than a value based one which my long term profitability now allows me to employ.

However, it wasn't over yet, and further lays of Bradford at 1.19, which was equally ridiculous, allowed me to end up with over £250 when Wigan scored two late tries to win. If only Bradford had scored at the end though, I had £700 on the draw!

A very interesting afternoon although one which to be honest, if you don't have a love of RL and a willingness to listen to the games out of interest, probably isn't worth it. Indeed, I definitely get too carried away with red on my screen and in general and staying calm is something that I definitely need to improve.

One comment that was made to me before was that given my success in this market by what is essentially a "being the highest of the low" pricers was why do I publish my methods? The truth is that I want to get more people involved in RL trading, and I want to get more money in the markets. I would back myself in a liquid market way more than in an illiquid one and if people arrive pushing the prices up, then obviously we have a more complete market which will allow for greater trading.

The final match of the weekend was Sunday's main event; the televised clash between Catalans and Harlequins.

Quins gave a good showing considering their injury crisis, and due to ridiculous liquidity (Everyone watching cricket and golf I suspect), their price stayed sensible making it hard for me to get fully involved other than backing the draw, which at 8-0, was a great price of 50.

The main issue of the match however, was my actions when Quins were 20 - 4 down and the refereeing.

As I say, the harder you work the luckier you get. (Obviously someone said this before me, but anyway...) I had laid Catalans at 1.03 and backed Quins in the 40s at this point which was little better than fair value when Quins gave away a penalty and looked out of the match only for Catalans to knock on, and Quins to race away narrowing the lead to 20 - 14 and giving me close to £2,000 risk free on the London outfit.

However, the sport of Rugby League is one where a random incident can have a great impact. Could anyone see the looming knock on? Of course not. However, having traded all bar a few SL games this year, I knew well enough that one random play would produce a good profit and that is the key reason why it is so profitable to lay low in Super League. Regardless of the flow of the game, one knock on, one interception, one refereeing decision, one moment of skill, can turn a game on its head in a way that no one can accurately predict, save for the fact that you can predict the unpredictability. If that makes sense.

The second point is the amount of people who consider RL to be possibly "bent" in terms of the refereeing decisions on the Betfair forum. To this, I say nonesense. Yes, you get some "eh" decisions and yes you get some decisions which are wrong, but to suggest that there is a plan to keep games close is ridiculous in my view.

Like players, referees can make mistakes and I would also say that you could penalise every play the ball. Be it moving off the mark, lying on, hands in, offside... there is always something not quite right. Referees don't give decisions to make games close. Games are made close by refereeing decisions. The key is to acknowledge this and profit off the back of it.

In the end, I didn't win anything as Quins never got the next try that I was hoping for and would have produced a very large win but after this weekend, I can't be disappointed, can I?

Now, if only I could apply this dedication and work ethic to my life in general...! But, as my mates would say, how many times have we heard that...!

Brief, muddled and conditional thoughts before I disappear for the week

2009-07-07T11:35:00.002+01:00

Just a very quick post regarding initial thoughts on this weekend’s rugby before I head off to Cardiff to sit in a pub judging by the recent weather forecasts. If anyone knows of any good ones or ones which show the RL, let me know!

Now, I would not usually ever post thoughts this early. The markets have not been set up and I am useless at predicting these and there is still a lot of team news to emerge. That said, let’s roll the dice.

Wakefield v Leeds is the Friday SKY game, and I would advise a wait and see approach. The past four games have seen the favourites go two scores up inside 20 minutes and then they can be laid in the 1.0s or 1.1s! Laying at that price should get you very far! That said, there has also been more liquidity recently which has pushed the draw price out, so I would keep an eye out for that pre match. Anything over 40 would represent good value for trading later.

Wigan v Catalans is another Friday game and one which will see little liquidity in play, but that doesn’t mean little value as I’ve found out recently. This is a funny game because I have grown to strongly oppose Wigan prices recently but they have kept on winning. Still, the Market has a lot of love for Wigan and that is definitely a valuable opportunity for value seekers. However, how will the market react to Wigan being without three back rowers, their reserve hooker, their first choice (but second rate) halfback and Martin Gleeson. Catalans don’t travel well, but at anything below 1.3, they would represent very good value. 1.3 to the 1.4 would be decent value and 1.4 to 1.5 would probably be fair value given that Wigan appear to have developed a good team spirit, Catalans’ poor travelling form and the fact that none of Wigan’s injuries are really that crucial.

If there is one game I love to trade it is St Helens v Warrington. That was one of the first games I ever traded in 2008, and I seem to remember doing reasonably well in their Cup match before I tipped Warrington coming back from 1.05, sending to Saints to double figures before eventually losing which was one of the two games that convinced me that maybe I could make a good profit. This year, I also called Warrington from 4 into odds on before losing!

So I am gutted to miss this game, although I would say that this is a game where the money will likely be made in play. However, Warrington have displayed more consistency under Tony Smith and Saints have a few injuries, although I would expect last week’s loss to send them out more motivated than ever. The pre-match odds will be very interesting, but if you are looking for a pre kick off prediction here, don’t ask me! Just sit back and watch what has to be the most volatile match up ever. (However, I like Saints’ in the Challenge Cup market where they have drifted from 1.6 to 1.7 on the basis of Friday night, a ridiculous overreaction in my opinion.)

Saturday’s other games include Harlequins v Huddersfield which is another game I would not like to comment on until I see the match odds. Harlequins have played poorly recently whilst Huddersfield are coming off a good win over Wakefield. Usually, that would make me favour Harlequins, although how much will home advantage (over) effect the market? As a general rule, I would probably go for the outsider for value purposes, but again, are any of Quins’ players back from injury?

The other game on Saturday is Celtic v Salford, and with me staying very close to Celtic’s ground, if the cricket is rained off, I will likely venture down. Another tough match to call without reference to the odds. Salford should be clear favourites, but might they ease off after last weekend’s win and is Matty Smith back for Celtic yet? Celtic’s recent financial issues may also draw them closer together. If you can get in the 1.2s to lay Salford, that would be good value, although I would be surprised if Salford were that low.

On Sunday, two out of form sides meet in Hull KR v Bradford. Again, I would want to see the match odds before commenting. I thought Hull KR were under-rated last week and Bradford over-rated although whether this was home advantage or the market’s views, I don’t know. Certainly, if Bradford resemble Castleford’s odds from last week, I would look to get on them. If Bradford resemble Hull KR’s odds from last week, I would probably steer clear.

The other game, Castleford v Hull, would, on the face of it, look to represent my strongest position of the week. Castleford won last week so might be over-rated. Hull lost so might be under-rated but displayed some very good team spirit and attacking prowess which were my two biggest question marks over Hull. Castleford are at home so despite some poor performances at home this week, might be over-rated here. If Hull have a couple of players back from injury, then Castleford could be vastly under-priced. Alternatively, the market may read the game correctly or Castleford’s need to win may drive them home. However, based upon recent market starting prices, I would think Castleford could be as low as 1.3 and that price should be laid and I think that’s the most unconditional I have been so far!

And don’t forget the Northern Rail Cup final on Sunday at 5:15 on SKY. Although Barrow were poor last week, Widnes look ridiculously low at 1.5, and that might be worth watching in play, although as with any semi professional match, these are much harder to call, in my opinion.

But above all, I would advise that if you have a spare afternoon on Sunday, that you watch the cricket with the RL markets up and look for value or even throw out some speculative lays. There are some people out there who seem to like to make bets with no reference to value, and without me there to compete with you for these prices, you might strike lucky. In play trading, and the draw, is where the biggest value lies, in my opinion.

As always, I do not hold any liability if any of the above is completely wrong! They are just my thoughts and based upon general principles which may not apply in every game. No-one can call a RL game with certainty before the match starts, but sometimes there are clues which can lead you down a particular road!

Anyway, time to go and get some lunch and then head off to Wales for the start of the Ashes summer. Come on England!

Heartbreak.

2009-07-05T23:17:00.000+01:00

After a morning shopping for some last minute clothes and other bits and bobs for my week in Wales, I returned home to follow the afternoon’s rugby and if I spotted any value on Betfair, then great, I could do with a nice profit after a rather poor week and having just spent an obscene amount of money on a pair of sunglasses.

However, to begin with I was not wholly focused and almost got into a very bad situation when my mobile phone lost all power whilst out at 2.30, leaving me with potentially a very large liability on the afternoon’s two games depending upon any last minute price swings. Add in more national rail incompetence, and I didn’t even arrive home until 15 minutes had passed in both Super League games. Thankfully however, my fears of a possible large liability went unfounded.

Still, both games had largely uneventful first halves, although I did have some lays in the 1.1s nibbled at which some would say was very fair value given that both favourites held a two score lead.

The major change was in the second half when with there being little action in the Huddersfield v Wakefield match, the Castleford v Bradford match exploded into life.

Castleford scored first in the second half, pushing the score to 22 – 18 and maybe on account of my relatively poor week or on account of my search for value, I opted to pile in on a near £800 wanting to back Bradford in the mid 1.1s. At this point, if Bradford had scored next, I probably would have lost it all, but I made an instant decision to go for it.

Castleford then scored again to take the lead at 22 – 24, and I made the decision to offer up value by offering a lay of Bradford at 1.3 and 1.4. There are definitely two schools of thought here. The first is that I am giving up value which, in the long run will depreciate profit. The second is that I am looking to avoid losses, and that in a game which notoriously has low liquidity, the value concept should be adjusted to include that. After all, laying in the 1.1s was a tremendous trading opportunity. As a one off bet, its value was probably no more than good.

The other reason that I follow the second strand is because my initial bets are very rare. There is very limited turnover during the games, and so the ability to profit is vastly reduced. I would probably back myself more in a more efficient, liquid market than in an illiquid market where fastest finger or luck can be the greatest influence. Certainly, the more that gets turned over, the more money will be bet and that is of great interest to me. Let’s also not forget that £100 is a large liability, and not one that I always like to take on!

Anyway, Cas went onto score two more tries and I was stunned by the good fortune I had received. I was then able to trade out as low as the 1.3s on Cas, which had near enough guaranteed me a win of £280, only for Bradford to come back to level the game at 34 – 34!

By now, I was getting increasingly excited as I had also placed a £10 back of the draw prior to kick off, and I had a very large green on the draw of over £800. Castleford went on and scored again however, but at 40 – 34, the draw could not be ignored, and was trading at a remarkable 16.5! and as the full time whistle approached, and a final lay of Castleford of 1.05 got taken, Bradford seemed to go near enough the distance to score with minutes remaining!

However, they had scored in the corner and needed the kick to draw level. At this point, there was still sensational value on the draw of 6 and later 8 which was frankly incredible. The odds of the kick being converted were probably around 2/1. Maybe an extra .5 to 1 weighting for layers securing a profit, but that was value.

Adding to the pressure was the sound of the full time hooter as the ball seemed to be in the air. Only, for the ball…. to….. shave…..the….post.

And with that, I missed out on my largest ever win and had not even managed to trade out. This was precisely the situation I had dreaded. £500 resting on a single kick where despite my best intentions, I could not trade out.

Of course, it is hard to feel too sorry for me. After all, I did win over £400 before commission, but to miss out on such a large extra by a couple of metres is the stuff of nightmares.

Add in a very small win on Wakefield, and a small loss on Andy Roddick (any other time I would have traded out, but following a £400 win, I was prepared to keep a small red) and I have turned what looked like a poor week into a great week. Indeed, the first week of the RL season that I will miss comes just as I seem to be hitting top form. Since my disaster in the Wakefield game, I have earned over £1,500 which takes my profit for the year over £5,000, and my profit from 6 April, when I resolved to get more serious, to an incredible £4,000.

It just goes to show that all the hard work I have put into this is paying off and if I am getting lucky in the less liquid games, it is only because I am working so hard, constantly looking for value. Now, if only I could apply such a work ethic to perhaps the more important things in life which, whilst I don’t neglect, I don’t embrace with the same dedication that I do here. (Possibly because they can go much more wrong than a loss of profit, but that’s another story for another day.)

As I am not here next week, I will try to quickly post a preview of the weekend’s action tomorrow, although given that it will be without odds and team news, it will be very vague but hopefully still of some use.