“What is also pleasing is that I have largely been very consistent. I have traded 20 markets this year, and only one of these markets shows a loss. That was a small pre match trade in Valencia v Espanyol where I lost £1.86. All other markets have showed a profit.”
Compare and contrast the concept of trading as against 1990 console games such as Sonic The Hedgehog and Super Mario Brothers.
Confused? Let me explain.
The first comment was one I made back on Saturday 9 January 2010. A more recent comment would be.
“What is gaoling about my trading through the past 8 days has been losses of £200, £80, £150 and £230.”
The second comment is a question I will attempt to answer through the following post to attempt to explain my recent losses.
Loss One. A £200 back of 0-0 prior to the start of the Leicester v Ipswich game. I am a 0-0 scalper. The odds drifted pre kick off. I backed to my maximum liability. Joined the laying queue in play but a goal after 30 seconds meant I lost £200. I have no issues with that. An occupational hazard so to speak.
Loss Two. A loss of over £80 on Dancing On Ice. This was slightly annoying but explainable. Usually, ITV reality shows offer a recap before voting lines close. They didn’t and the market was suspended with an unequalised book. I wasn’t too concerned at the time as late money had been highly unreliable during the X Factor. However, for the first show, it was a poor idea to make any assumptions and what did aggravate the loss was that I had accurately called one of the Bottom two, but had looked to lay for a total green book and did not recognise value as it appeared.
Loss Three. £150 on Arsenal v Bolton. The 0-0 market was highly abnormal in this game due to the presence of a five figure layer of 0-0 at the start, rendering my usual in and out method futile. I therefore “recognised value” and the fact that 0-0 was likely to crash in price. Which it did. At 12.5, I looked to lay off for £0 although I wanted to earn some money from the market so turned around and entered at 12, knowing that I had placed a lay at a largely empty 10.5. However, a large chunk of money appeared at 11, but I declined to exit as I usually would and got caught out. The stupidity rating on this was high. I behaved in a manner that was “If the market is being irrational, I too will be irrational.”
Loss Four. £230 on Newcastle v West Brom. I looked to trade the Half Time Correct Score market and did very well save for a drift on 2-1. However, this was a linear train that would come down with time, and being first in at 4.5 and 4.6, I was content to leave my money there and not quit. Also, a goal for Newcastle would do well for my trade so in effect, I was laying West Brom not to score in the opening 2 minutes. I missed the start of the second half, and a goal was scored after 32 seconds.
This raises an interesting question. Is this a loss one type event or a loss three type event. I am minded to say loss three. To not be aware of the start of the second half is ridiculous and this was not an “occupational hazard” as much as a display of arrogance.
So what has gone wrong? How has someone so risk averse that at age 21 they set up a pension invested in Gilts to avoid the Stock Market turned into someone who treats the Betfair markets with utter disdain.
I can think of three possible explanations.
The “personal issues” that I have referred to previously as a reason for not writing the blog have developed into thinking errors. Is it a good idea to be trading a market at 8.30 after being awake from 5.30, out at work until 6.30 and generally feeling fatigued.
Secondly, have I lost the value of money. My main income is (hopefully) Rugby League and Formula 1. Knowing that, and with the knowledge of my 2009 earnings, am I thinking that “it is only £200” and therefore leaving trades open. However, if this is so why am I so bothered about one tick trades? Why not make two tick trades at £100.
Thirdly, and this will answer the initial question posed, goes back to the intrinsic reason I trade and my nature as a person. (Apologies if I get deep and away from the general trading comments!)
My trading is fundamentally a “hobby”. It is something I do for enjoyment. I like watching sport. I like testing my brain. This combines the two. However, there is a third underlying reason, which the “personal issues” can attest to.
I am a perfectionist. I abhor the concept of losing or worse still, being wrong. Give me 99% on a test and I won’t celebrate the 99%. I’ll focus on the 1%. In a previous job, we had a sample of our work checked. I developed a system to avoid “sampling”! A lot of who I am as a person relates to my perceived accomplishments. It sounds ridiculous, but one losing trade can equal one losing person and that is why I focus on small, mathematical based trades.
Recently, I have noticed that maybe my confidence is pretty low and it has been ever since I commented on going back to law school back in August. Certain other events and people haven’t exactly helped either. Therefore, I am incorporating more and more “thinking errors” into my trading and striving for 100%, turning down even 99% because in my eyes, that is as wrong as 0%.
So, how does this relate back to Sonic The Hedgehog? Well, that’s easy. Number one, trading fulfils a relaxing / entertainment role in my life like computer games do for others. Secondly, and this is the key, in Sonic The Hedgehog, you get 3 lives per level and a continue at the end of each level.
If you get something wrong, it is not game over. At least not to begin with. It is in fact an unavoidable destination on the road to success.
And that’s the key. Perfection (which is also not using and to start a sentence!) is an unobtainable goal and something that is generally not required in any case. After all, it measures you against objective standards when all you can control is subjective. Is James Milner not a “better” player than Robinho for his industry and dedication. Talent is something that we are born with. Making the most, or least, of this is something that we can control.
So, maybe in my trades, I need to realise that I won’t always “get it right” but focus on accepting that. Usually I can do so without exception. Recently, I am not. And the ultimate irony in all this is that at Half Time, I could have “won” in any case by laying all scores for a 100% book given previous trades! And for the year in total, I am now around £30 down, which is pretty exceptional given my recent trades.
There’s probably a good chance I’ll read this in the morning and take the post down for fears that it is too self-revealing. Assuming that it is still here, I would be grateful for any comments received. Although short of “get a grip you loon!”, I am not sure what you can say!
Monday, 18 January 2010
Friday, 15 January 2010
How accurate can gut feelings be
One thing I have noticed recently is the correctness of my “gut feeling”. So many times recently, I have thought something may happen and it has both in trading and in my personal life. When I wrote my last blog entry, I commented that a loss was surely just around the corner. Little did I know how close.
Ipswich v Leicester. 32 seconds gone. Goal. What made this particularly disappointing was that when I had turned to the Correct Score market, I placed a back bet pre play of £100 at 11.5 which was the current lay odds at 11.5. In most games recently, the 0-0 price has collapsed so I wasn’t confident of getting matched, but not only did I get matched, but the market edged out to 12 so I placed another £100 expecting to be able to lay off at 11.5 within the first 90 seconds or so. The match kicked off and as expected, the initial back price was 11.5, so I put in a £200 lay and then saw the ball appear to crawl over the line in slow motion.
I very rarely have £100 liability in play, but had used my maximum limit of £200 and it was all gone. Still, I wouldn’t have done anything any differently. That’s the game I play.
The end result was a £166.11 loss, although that was slightly offset by earnings of just over £20 on Hamilton v Rangers and Real Madrid v Mallorca.
The evening saw the return of Dancing On Ice on ITV. Now, I dislike most reality shows, but I actually quite enjoy reality shows on ITV. I can’t explain what the difference is – I suppose the X Factor and Britain’s Got Talent contain an element of ordinary people realising their dreams, but I can’t explain the appeal of Z list celebrities on ice. However, I do enjoy it.
I did not, however, enjoy my result on the market which lead me to lose £86.48 despite correctly calling Sharron Davies to be Bottom two after her performance. How? Well, I was around £10 green at various points but continued to trade most acts although the liquidity was very poor. And then, just as the show came on, the price on Davies and Sinitta suddenly shortened, whilst the price on Emily Atack and Tana Ramsey suddenly lengthened. Anyone who had followed the X Factor would not have been too concerned by this as it seemed that the late drifts were always wrong so I remained unconcerned, expecting the market to either swing back my way or for the insiders to be proved wrong.
However, the market immediately suspended when the show opened and immediately closed the lines. I had expected a further ten minutes of waffle, and had been wrong which was my major mistake. And then, the late market movements were proved accurate and I was looking at a very, very red book thanks to a set of ridiculous mistakes which had betrayed my cautious but successful approach so far this year.
The evening ended slightly better (or rather the morning began well) when Arizona Cardinals advanced in the NFL playoffs. At 31-10, I was happy enough that they would hold on for the win, and decided to go to bed as I was up at 5.30 for work. Before doing so, knowing what the Cards are like, I placed a small insurance bet on Green Bay at 21. Anyway, the Packers then scored two consecutive TDs and the game was tied at 38 with the Cards having the ball with time running out. Thanks to some small trades, I had around £170 on Green Bay and £40 on Arizona when Neil Rackers attempted a possible game winning Field Goal. After umming and aahing, I was going to go with my gut that Rackers would miss, and was about to lay Arizona when he missed.
I then didn’t look to even up my book (any other time I would have, but I usually lay any sports teams that I follow) and a great play by the Arizona D won the game, reducing my profit but allowing my team to advance in the playoffs. Although it will all count for nothing if they lose against New Orleans! And I also was incredibly tired when I woke up the next morning at 5.30 after only getting to sleep at 1.30!
So after a good start to the weekend, the ending wasn’t quite so great and this week hasn’t been too great either. I have previously promised plenty of posts on RL trading before the season starts but unfortunately some of the personal issues which I have previously referred to have re-appeared which also explains the lack of blog posts this week. There is nothing unduly serious about these issues but when they do crop up, I lack the ability to write blog posts or contribute on the forums.
Usually, when they do crop up, I like to immerse myself in trading as a distraction, but I couldn’t even be bothered for that in the middle of this week, losing £3 on Coventry v Portsmouth and winning nearly £2 on Liverpool v Reading. Games which I looked to trade, but couldn’t be bothered with. However, I did sandwich them with some good trades as I made close to £45 on Man City v Blackburn and £35 on Blackburn v Aston Villa, largely through my usual tactics.
Finally, I also managed to earn just over £10 from tonight’s Rugby Union between Ulster and Edinburgh as I simply transferred some of my usual RL trading skills across whilst trading the market before kick off and in the last twenty or so minutes.
Hopefully, I’ll be back soon with more posts but if I don’t manage to make a post for a few days, I wish everyone has a good weekend.
Ipswich v Leicester. 32 seconds gone. Goal. What made this particularly disappointing was that when I had turned to the Correct Score market, I placed a back bet pre play of £100 at 11.5 which was the current lay odds at 11.5. In most games recently, the 0-0 price has collapsed so I wasn’t confident of getting matched, but not only did I get matched, but the market edged out to 12 so I placed another £100 expecting to be able to lay off at 11.5 within the first 90 seconds or so. The match kicked off and as expected, the initial back price was 11.5, so I put in a £200 lay and then saw the ball appear to crawl over the line in slow motion.
I very rarely have £100 liability in play, but had used my maximum limit of £200 and it was all gone. Still, I wouldn’t have done anything any differently. That’s the game I play.
The end result was a £166.11 loss, although that was slightly offset by earnings of just over £20 on Hamilton v Rangers and Real Madrid v Mallorca.
The evening saw the return of Dancing On Ice on ITV. Now, I dislike most reality shows, but I actually quite enjoy reality shows on ITV. I can’t explain what the difference is – I suppose the X Factor and Britain’s Got Talent contain an element of ordinary people realising their dreams, but I can’t explain the appeal of Z list celebrities on ice. However, I do enjoy it.
I did not, however, enjoy my result on the market which lead me to lose £86.48 despite correctly calling Sharron Davies to be Bottom two after her performance. How? Well, I was around £10 green at various points but continued to trade most acts although the liquidity was very poor. And then, just as the show came on, the price on Davies and Sinitta suddenly shortened, whilst the price on Emily Atack and Tana Ramsey suddenly lengthened. Anyone who had followed the X Factor would not have been too concerned by this as it seemed that the late drifts were always wrong so I remained unconcerned, expecting the market to either swing back my way or for the insiders to be proved wrong.
However, the market immediately suspended when the show opened and immediately closed the lines. I had expected a further ten minutes of waffle, and had been wrong which was my major mistake. And then, the late market movements were proved accurate and I was looking at a very, very red book thanks to a set of ridiculous mistakes which had betrayed my cautious but successful approach so far this year.
The evening ended slightly better (or rather the morning began well) when Arizona Cardinals advanced in the NFL playoffs. At 31-10, I was happy enough that they would hold on for the win, and decided to go to bed as I was up at 5.30 for work. Before doing so, knowing what the Cards are like, I placed a small insurance bet on Green Bay at 21. Anyway, the Packers then scored two consecutive TDs and the game was tied at 38 with the Cards having the ball with time running out. Thanks to some small trades, I had around £170 on Green Bay and £40 on Arizona when Neil Rackers attempted a possible game winning Field Goal. After umming and aahing, I was going to go with my gut that Rackers would miss, and was about to lay Arizona when he missed.
I then didn’t look to even up my book (any other time I would have, but I usually lay any sports teams that I follow) and a great play by the Arizona D won the game, reducing my profit but allowing my team to advance in the playoffs. Although it will all count for nothing if they lose against New Orleans! And I also was incredibly tired when I woke up the next morning at 5.30 after only getting to sleep at 1.30!
So after a good start to the weekend, the ending wasn’t quite so great and this week hasn’t been too great either. I have previously promised plenty of posts on RL trading before the season starts but unfortunately some of the personal issues which I have previously referred to have re-appeared which also explains the lack of blog posts this week. There is nothing unduly serious about these issues but when they do crop up, I lack the ability to write blog posts or contribute on the forums.
Usually, when they do crop up, I like to immerse myself in trading as a distraction, but I couldn’t even be bothered for that in the middle of this week, losing £3 on Coventry v Portsmouth and winning nearly £2 on Liverpool v Reading. Games which I looked to trade, but couldn’t be bothered with. However, I did sandwich them with some good trades as I made close to £45 on Man City v Blackburn and £35 on Blackburn v Aston Villa, largely through my usual tactics.
Finally, I also managed to earn just over £10 from tonight’s Rugby Union between Ulster and Edinburgh as I simply transferred some of my usual RL trading skills across whilst trading the market before kick off and in the last twenty or so minutes.
Hopefully, I’ll be back soon with more posts but if I don’t manage to make a post for a few days, I wish everyone has a good weekend.
Sunday, 10 January 2010
Slow and steady – A time for reflection.
Perspective is an invaluable tool and something that I usually fail to consider properly so allow me to indulge myself for a moment whilst I consider today’s achievements.
I have “earned” over £100 from watching sports. From clicking buttons on a computer whilst watching television. From the same activities that I have performed for 25 years of my life. From doing what the ‘average’ person does on a daily basis. It has been all too common recently to overlook this fact. To consider winning a normal occurrence and fail to appreciate the achievements made.
I hit the “reset” button at the start of 2010 and since then, I have earned £288.14. Some people will not have earned that much through their day jobs in 2010.
Today’s trading was, as a matter of fact, particularly routine and unmemorable and my first triple figure day of the year came at a time when most sporting events were actually called off due to the snow. With only one 3.00 PM kick off in the football, I looked to trade the correct score market in the Arsenal v Everton game and despite actually having laid an Everton scoreline at the time they scored, still profited to the tune of £13.
At the same time, I had one eye on the Rugby Union match. Now previously I have run in to trouble when trading multiple markets at the same time, but most of my trades were done before the match went in play as I sought to use some of the more general trading strategies that work well in Rugby League and then traded the draw during the first half to earn over £25 from the market.
I then traded the Birmingham v Man Utd game and was able to scalp 0-0 down from 11.5 to 10 as per my usual strategy before Birmingham scored at a time when I had significant green on 3-3 and 3-1. Pure luck it must be understood, but they all count and some small trades at Half Time took my earnings on the market to over £50, which was my largest profit of the year.
Finally, with the £100 barrier in sight, I sought to trade the Valencia v Almeria Correct Score market before kick off and combined with some small in play trades, profited to the tune of £19 before commission, bringing my daily earnings to over £106.
The most amazing thing about all the trades was that at all times, they just felt like small trades. There was no in depth preparation or frantic trades as I associate with my more “in depth” trades in Rugby League, Formula 1 or even when I was trading the X Factor. Everything feels in slow motion at the moment.
As I look back on my trading so far this year, the two major things that stand out have been divergence and pre play trading. Namely, I have started looking to trade markets before they kick off more than I did previously, when price swings are possibly more rational and don’t suffer from liquidity issues. Secondly, I have expanded the range of markets that I trade; incorporating the likes of Rugby Union and European football using the same basic principles that I have learned.
What is also pleasing is that I have largely been very consistent. I have traded 20 markets this year, and only one of these markets shows a loss. That was a small pre match trade in Valencia v Espanyol where I lost £1.86. All other markets have showed a profit. Even when I dipped into the 3rd test market of England v South Africa on the last day, I managed to make a penny! I expect that one of my 0-0 scalps will soon get caught out but I am confident enough in my overall strategies that this will just be a blip in the road and an inevitable fact of my trading.
As they say, every little helps and my trades this year will certainly help to go shopping in the Sales just as soon as I can actually stay on my feet when I go out! My trading has definitely improved so far and has benefited from greater consistency and clarity of thought. Now, if only it was so easy to make similar changes in my personal life!!
I have “earned” over £100 from watching sports. From clicking buttons on a computer whilst watching television. From the same activities that I have performed for 25 years of my life. From doing what the ‘average’ person does on a daily basis. It has been all too common recently to overlook this fact. To consider winning a normal occurrence and fail to appreciate the achievements made.
I hit the “reset” button at the start of 2010 and since then, I have earned £288.14. Some people will not have earned that much through their day jobs in 2010.
Today’s trading was, as a matter of fact, particularly routine and unmemorable and my first triple figure day of the year came at a time when most sporting events were actually called off due to the snow. With only one 3.00 PM kick off in the football, I looked to trade the correct score market in the Arsenal v Everton game and despite actually having laid an Everton scoreline at the time they scored, still profited to the tune of £13.
At the same time, I had one eye on the Rugby Union match. Now previously I have run in to trouble when trading multiple markets at the same time, but most of my trades were done before the match went in play as I sought to use some of the more general trading strategies that work well in Rugby League and then traded the draw during the first half to earn over £25 from the market.
I then traded the Birmingham v Man Utd game and was able to scalp 0-0 down from 11.5 to 10 as per my usual strategy before Birmingham scored at a time when I had significant green on 3-3 and 3-1. Pure luck it must be understood, but they all count and some small trades at Half Time took my earnings on the market to over £50, which was my largest profit of the year.
Finally, with the £100 barrier in sight, I sought to trade the Valencia v Almeria Correct Score market before kick off and combined with some small in play trades, profited to the tune of £19 before commission, bringing my daily earnings to over £106.
The most amazing thing about all the trades was that at all times, they just felt like small trades. There was no in depth preparation or frantic trades as I associate with my more “in depth” trades in Rugby League, Formula 1 or even when I was trading the X Factor. Everything feels in slow motion at the moment.
As I look back on my trading so far this year, the two major things that stand out have been divergence and pre play trading. Namely, I have started looking to trade markets before they kick off more than I did previously, when price swings are possibly more rational and don’t suffer from liquidity issues. Secondly, I have expanded the range of markets that I trade; incorporating the likes of Rugby Union and European football using the same basic principles that I have learned.
What is also pleasing is that I have largely been very consistent. I have traded 20 markets this year, and only one of these markets shows a loss. That was a small pre match trade in Valencia v Espanyol where I lost £1.86. All other markets have showed a profit. Even when I dipped into the 3rd test market of England v South Africa on the last day, I managed to make a penny! I expect that one of my 0-0 scalps will soon get caught out but I am confident enough in my overall strategies that this will just be a blip in the road and an inevitable fact of my trading.
As they say, every little helps and my trades this year will certainly help to go shopping in the Sales just as soon as I can actually stay on my feet when I go out! My trading has definitely improved so far and has benefited from greater consistency and clarity of thought. Now, if only it was so easy to make similar changes in my personal life!!
Thursday, 7 January 2010
A slight delay - so join the Forums!
With the weather forcing me to take a couple of days off from the day job, I was intending to be able to start my team previews. However, even in this Internet age, getting full squad information isn’t as easy as you would think (Crusaders RL don’t even appear to have a squad!) and that, combined with general procrastination, England’s third test match and my refound appreciation for Coupling on DVD means that they have been put on the backburner for now.
Those of you who use either of the trading resources I refer to at the top of my blog will be aware that I did spend some time looking at available Season bets and hope to turn that into a future blog post at some point but for now, they are just thoughts that I am awaiting feedback on. That’s also how I hope the blog will develop in 2010 – the forums being a place to discuss ideas which will then magically tidy themselves up into a coherent blog post (although I’m yet to manage one yet!)
Either way, that’s just an unashamed plug for the forums which I am quite keen on seeing grow. Trading can be both a lonely hobby and one in which you can greatly benefit from outside advice and with several sports being discussed, as well as general trading thoughts and off the cuff banter I really would advise anyone who has not yet signed up to sign up as soon as possible. You won’t regret it, unless you are easily distracted in which case you might as they can be very interesting and time consuming!
With two days off work, I took my football trading skills and tried to apply them to the Spanish and Italian correct score markets although the Italian suffered from seemingly inconsistent liquidity and the Spanish suffered from me not bothering to check the second half had kicked off and therefore not exiting positions in sufficient time. (I was trying as the goal went in.)
Post Commission earnings of £3.89, £3.75 and £15.45 probably justified the effort involved and I added to this by winning a single pence on the third test today. (I had moved my green onto South Africa.) /Amazingly, the draw could be backed at 1.19 with one ball remaining which seems a ridiculous price but I was happy enough to just collect another England last ball “victory”. Bring on the Summer, even if it is only Bangladesh and Pakistan!
The Rugby League season starts in just 22 days now so I’m hoping to get at least one preview up this weekend as well as looking to start some pieces on general RL trading for those of you with limited experience but excessive enthusiasm unless I get stranded at work. And if I do, well you should join the forums if you still haven’t, because they will keep you more amused than I ever can anyway.
Those of you who use either of the trading resources I refer to at the top of my blog will be aware that I did spend some time looking at available Season bets and hope to turn that into a future blog post at some point but for now, they are just thoughts that I am awaiting feedback on. That’s also how I hope the blog will develop in 2010 – the forums being a place to discuss ideas which will then magically tidy themselves up into a coherent blog post (although I’m yet to manage one yet!)
Either way, that’s just an unashamed plug for the forums which I am quite keen on seeing grow. Trading can be both a lonely hobby and one in which you can greatly benefit from outside advice and with several sports being discussed, as well as general trading thoughts and off the cuff banter I really would advise anyone who has not yet signed up to sign up as soon as possible. You won’t regret it, unless you are easily distracted in which case you might as they can be very interesting and time consuming!
With two days off work, I took my football trading skills and tried to apply them to the Spanish and Italian correct score markets although the Italian suffered from seemingly inconsistent liquidity and the Spanish suffered from me not bothering to check the second half had kicked off and therefore not exiting positions in sufficient time. (I was trying as the goal went in.)
Post Commission earnings of £3.89, £3.75 and £15.45 probably justified the effort involved and I added to this by winning a single pence on the third test today. (I had moved my green onto South Africa.) /Amazingly, the draw could be backed at 1.19 with one ball remaining which seems a ridiculous price but I was happy enough to just collect another England last ball “victory”. Bring on the Summer, even if it is only Bangladesh and Pakistan!
The Rugby League season starts in just 22 days now so I’m hoping to get at least one preview up this weekend as well as looking to start some pieces on general RL trading for those of you with limited experience but excessive enthusiasm unless I get stranded at work. And if I do, well you should join the forums if you still haven’t, because they will keep you more amused than I ever can anyway.
Tuesday, 5 January 2010
Slow and steady
When I first set up this blog at the start of 2009, my January trading was less than spectacular. I was putting in a lot of effort but actually ended up that month down by £10. This year, I am five days into the month and am somehow showing a profit of £136.43 despite feeling like I have put no real “work” into my trading.
Maybe his is due to my previous efforts paying dividends, maybe it is luck or maybe it is just the size of my bank which is helping me to achieve my current progress but it sure seems odd to several people that I can come home from work, turn on my computer and earn enough money to pay for my addiction to Ted Baker.
On Saturday, I initially benefited from a lucky break as the Cardiff v Bristol City FA cup match was postponed. I had tried to duplicate the strategy I employed in the Stevenage v Cambridge game but had got caught out and was looking at a £4 loss before I decided to close my book and head out into the January sales. (Is it just me or are “Sales” just a way for companies to sell items which would never have been sold at their full price) Anyway, the match was postponed and my loss erased from my balance sheet.
I then followed that up by attempting to trade the Reading v Liverpool match on the Correct Score market. The key lesson I learned from this is not to get involved in such markets before team news is announced as certain prices drifted fairly substantially once the Liverpool team was announced with the inclusion of Fernando Torres. Not that it mattered much as Liverpool once again were held to an awful result.
As for my trading, well I nearly had a panic attack at the start of the game when Betfair crashed. Interestingly, judging by the forum, it appeared that it crashed for some people and not others. Either way, I had taken a heavy position on 0-0 before the match went in play as the score drifted just before kick off and had attempted to submit a lay of 0-0 once the market opened so I had ten minutes or so of not knowing whether my 0-0 lay had been submitted correctly or not which caused the explosion of a few nerves!
When I finally got the market loaded, my 0-0 lay had been submitted and taken but I was understandably hesitant to get involved in anything but the smallest trades until half time when I was satisfied that the website had started behaving itself and that with some small second half trades lead to a profit of £16.35.
On a related issue, it does appear that Betfair’s website is becoming more and more unreliable which is of great concern given that they are taking more and more commission through the Premium Charge. It is rather inconsistent to look to take more money from traders (I know that punters are also affected by the Charge) and then not be able to provide a consistent service. It would be impossible to seek to reimburse traders who get caught through the downtime of the website mid trade but something more than a half hearted acknowledgement and apology on the forums may be appropriate although it is more apparent than ever just how much disregard Betfair have for their customers these days.
My Saturday evening trades were then followed up with me once again trying to trade pre match markets in Spanish football and I lost £1.86 on the Valencia v Espanyol market but gained £9.57 on the Atletico Madrid v Sevilla market. I also popped into the Correct Score market for the latter game before the game and at Half Time and a late goal from the home side helped me to a £13.47 victory which was quite astonishing really considering the little effort put in.
The key thing to take out of this is once you have a strategy that you are confident in, you can look to apply this in other areas which are out of your comfort zone. It won’t always work but on occasions it can.
With Sunday being the last day off before the return to work, I was keen to do as little as possible and just put my feet up and there was enough football on to even allow me to look to dip my toes into the Correct Score waters again.
Now before the turn of the year, one of the areas where I had recognised a significant weakness was in poor preparation and a tendency to rush into things and unfortunately, I carried this into the Leeds v Man Utd market. I had been out for dinner before hand and then upon returning home ten minutes into the match, launched myself into the market without a true appreciation for how the market was behaving. (Whilst I have been putting little “effort” into my trades recently, I had been keeping an eye on any market drifts and the general liquidity on certain scores.)
So, whilst a Leeds goal probably could not have been predicted, the fact that I got caught with a lay on 0-2 probably could have been predicted. However, my relatively small stake size allowed me to exit with just a £13 red. Whereas in previous months, I would have probably got agitated by “going behind” and looked to make stupid trades, I accepted my errors and walked away from the market.
Until Half Time. By which point I had familiarised myself with the liquidity and the way the market was behaving and I was subsequently able through trading at both half time and in the second half to turn my £13 red into a profit of £12.25 which was as pleasing as any profit I had made from Betfair in a very long time.
Buoyed by this, I then took a look into the Hearts v Hibs game and was perplexed by the lack of liquidity given that there was no competing football. Either way, whereas I had been caught out by a goal in the earlier game, I benefited from a goal of sorts in this game.
I had been matched at 3-3 and was in the process of trying to lay off (but the liquidity was such that there was no takers) when a goal went in which gave me a total profit of £6.77. Not bad for a £3 stake.
I then followed this up by trading the Arsenal v West Ham game which saw the 0-0 price come in from 16.5 allowing me to scalp the 0-0 scoreline in 0.5 increments as per my preferred approach when West Ham scored just before half time. (There seems to have been several late goals in the first half this season,) The impact of the goal was largely neutral on my book as although I had a large red on 3-1, I had an equally large green on 3-0 which countered each other out.
However, where as in the past I had looked down on such goals because they tend to de-stabilise the market at Half Time, I looked to take advantage of this and managed to achieve a green book of over £30 which I largely sat on until towards the end of the game where I tried to equalise my book exactly on my way to an eventual £33.57 profit.
Over the weekend, I had made small but consistent profits from an approach that was incredibly laid back. Whereas my 0-0 scalps are usually made often, I was in the middle of re-organising some finances and therefore my bank was only at 50% capacity. (Which had meant that I was hesitant to use as much funds as usual.) Everything felt much slower as well and maybe this might be the way forward whilst I am becoming increasingly confident in my approach at Half Time which, whilst will never make a huge amount, is becoming increasingly profitable.
I had also looked into the Rugby Union game on Sky Sports and had tried to trade the market before kick off but got caught out and ended up with a red book before kick off (again, only for £2 or so) which I had been prepared to leave, but managed to use my Draw trading for two minutes at the end of the game to turn my red into a £0.07 profit.
Finally, after travelling a total of near 7 hours today in order to complete 5 hours work, I was in need of relaxation tonight and was disappointed that the Blackburn v Aston Villa match was postponed but was equally pleased that Sky used this to show the Stoke v Fulham game.
Despite 0-0 starting at a preposterous 8, I managed to scalp 0-0 before the goal to earn £10.50 before I then traded some more around Half Time to take it up to just over £20 but I was hesitant to trade any more as at 3-0, another goal could see the market end. However, I hadn’t properly balanced my book and the second Fulham goal allowed me to take £25 exactly. (£23.82 after commission.)
There are times where I feel I have to pinch myself and this was one of them. I have received £23.82 for pushing a couple of buttons on a computer whilst a game of football is on. It feels beyond absurd and it is a fact that any remotely successful trader should remind themselves of how fortunate they are to be in their current position.
It is also a complete world away to how I felt towards the end of the Rugby League season and when using the football strategy where I was possibly placing myself under too much pressure (and I have never been one to cope well with stress!). As much as I can make excellent earnings from this, I should always remember that fundamentally, this is a hobby and something I derive pleasure from. The day that ends is the day I will cease to trade.
Anyway, I am sure I have rambled sufficiently about my weekend’s trades. The intention of this blog is not to dialogue every trade I make but to speak generally and with particular emphasis on Rugby League as this is where my main interest lies.
To that end, and with the season set to kick off in 24 days, I will be looking to start making some Rugby League posts. Whilst my long term prognostication powers are less than impressive, I will hope to write some detailed previews on all teams as well as general articles on how I approach both Rugby League trading and how I often look to read games. I know that some of you are very keen to learn about Rugby League whilst maybe not having a great technical knowledge of the game, so if you have any questions feel free to ask them. There are far worse ways to spend your Friday and Saturday early evenings!
And with time running out, and the weather leaving me snowed in tomorrow (I opted to take a holiday rather than wait for a freezing train to crawl through levels of snow I have never seen before) I will have to start updating squad lists and pulling my thoughts together pretty soon!
Maybe his is due to my previous efforts paying dividends, maybe it is luck or maybe it is just the size of my bank which is helping me to achieve my current progress but it sure seems odd to several people that I can come home from work, turn on my computer and earn enough money to pay for my addiction to Ted Baker.
On Saturday, I initially benefited from a lucky break as the Cardiff v Bristol City FA cup match was postponed. I had tried to duplicate the strategy I employed in the Stevenage v Cambridge game but had got caught out and was looking at a £4 loss before I decided to close my book and head out into the January sales. (Is it just me or are “Sales” just a way for companies to sell items which would never have been sold at their full price) Anyway, the match was postponed and my loss erased from my balance sheet.
I then followed that up by attempting to trade the Reading v Liverpool match on the Correct Score market. The key lesson I learned from this is not to get involved in such markets before team news is announced as certain prices drifted fairly substantially once the Liverpool team was announced with the inclusion of Fernando Torres. Not that it mattered much as Liverpool once again were held to an awful result.
As for my trading, well I nearly had a panic attack at the start of the game when Betfair crashed. Interestingly, judging by the forum, it appeared that it crashed for some people and not others. Either way, I had taken a heavy position on 0-0 before the match went in play as the score drifted just before kick off and had attempted to submit a lay of 0-0 once the market opened so I had ten minutes or so of not knowing whether my 0-0 lay had been submitted correctly or not which caused the explosion of a few nerves!
When I finally got the market loaded, my 0-0 lay had been submitted and taken but I was understandably hesitant to get involved in anything but the smallest trades until half time when I was satisfied that the website had started behaving itself and that with some small second half trades lead to a profit of £16.35.
On a related issue, it does appear that Betfair’s website is becoming more and more unreliable which is of great concern given that they are taking more and more commission through the Premium Charge. It is rather inconsistent to look to take more money from traders (I know that punters are also affected by the Charge) and then not be able to provide a consistent service. It would be impossible to seek to reimburse traders who get caught through the downtime of the website mid trade but something more than a half hearted acknowledgement and apology on the forums may be appropriate although it is more apparent than ever just how much disregard Betfair have for their customers these days.
My Saturday evening trades were then followed up with me once again trying to trade pre match markets in Spanish football and I lost £1.86 on the Valencia v Espanyol market but gained £9.57 on the Atletico Madrid v Sevilla market. I also popped into the Correct Score market for the latter game before the game and at Half Time and a late goal from the home side helped me to a £13.47 victory which was quite astonishing really considering the little effort put in.
The key thing to take out of this is once you have a strategy that you are confident in, you can look to apply this in other areas which are out of your comfort zone. It won’t always work but on occasions it can.
With Sunday being the last day off before the return to work, I was keen to do as little as possible and just put my feet up and there was enough football on to even allow me to look to dip my toes into the Correct Score waters again.
Now before the turn of the year, one of the areas where I had recognised a significant weakness was in poor preparation and a tendency to rush into things and unfortunately, I carried this into the Leeds v Man Utd market. I had been out for dinner before hand and then upon returning home ten minutes into the match, launched myself into the market without a true appreciation for how the market was behaving. (Whilst I have been putting little “effort” into my trades recently, I had been keeping an eye on any market drifts and the general liquidity on certain scores.)
So, whilst a Leeds goal probably could not have been predicted, the fact that I got caught with a lay on 0-2 probably could have been predicted. However, my relatively small stake size allowed me to exit with just a £13 red. Whereas in previous months, I would have probably got agitated by “going behind” and looked to make stupid trades, I accepted my errors and walked away from the market.
Until Half Time. By which point I had familiarised myself with the liquidity and the way the market was behaving and I was subsequently able through trading at both half time and in the second half to turn my £13 red into a profit of £12.25 which was as pleasing as any profit I had made from Betfair in a very long time.
Buoyed by this, I then took a look into the Hearts v Hibs game and was perplexed by the lack of liquidity given that there was no competing football. Either way, whereas I had been caught out by a goal in the earlier game, I benefited from a goal of sorts in this game.
I had been matched at 3-3 and was in the process of trying to lay off (but the liquidity was such that there was no takers) when a goal went in which gave me a total profit of £6.77. Not bad for a £3 stake.
I then followed this up by trading the Arsenal v West Ham game which saw the 0-0 price come in from 16.5 allowing me to scalp the 0-0 scoreline in 0.5 increments as per my preferred approach when West Ham scored just before half time. (There seems to have been several late goals in the first half this season,) The impact of the goal was largely neutral on my book as although I had a large red on 3-1, I had an equally large green on 3-0 which countered each other out.
However, where as in the past I had looked down on such goals because they tend to de-stabilise the market at Half Time, I looked to take advantage of this and managed to achieve a green book of over £30 which I largely sat on until towards the end of the game where I tried to equalise my book exactly on my way to an eventual £33.57 profit.
Over the weekend, I had made small but consistent profits from an approach that was incredibly laid back. Whereas my 0-0 scalps are usually made often, I was in the middle of re-organising some finances and therefore my bank was only at 50% capacity. (Which had meant that I was hesitant to use as much funds as usual.) Everything felt much slower as well and maybe this might be the way forward whilst I am becoming increasingly confident in my approach at Half Time which, whilst will never make a huge amount, is becoming increasingly profitable.
I had also looked into the Rugby Union game on Sky Sports and had tried to trade the market before kick off but got caught out and ended up with a red book before kick off (again, only for £2 or so) which I had been prepared to leave, but managed to use my Draw trading for two minutes at the end of the game to turn my red into a £0.07 profit.
Finally, after travelling a total of near 7 hours today in order to complete 5 hours work, I was in need of relaxation tonight and was disappointed that the Blackburn v Aston Villa match was postponed but was equally pleased that Sky used this to show the Stoke v Fulham game.
Despite 0-0 starting at a preposterous 8, I managed to scalp 0-0 before the goal to earn £10.50 before I then traded some more around Half Time to take it up to just over £20 but I was hesitant to trade any more as at 3-0, another goal could see the market end. However, I hadn’t properly balanced my book and the second Fulham goal allowed me to take £25 exactly. (£23.82 after commission.)
There are times where I feel I have to pinch myself and this was one of them. I have received £23.82 for pushing a couple of buttons on a computer whilst a game of football is on. It feels beyond absurd and it is a fact that any remotely successful trader should remind themselves of how fortunate they are to be in their current position.
It is also a complete world away to how I felt towards the end of the Rugby League season and when using the football strategy where I was possibly placing myself under too much pressure (and I have never been one to cope well with stress!). As much as I can make excellent earnings from this, I should always remember that fundamentally, this is a hobby and something I derive pleasure from. The day that ends is the day I will cease to trade.
Anyway, I am sure I have rambled sufficiently about my weekend’s trades. The intention of this blog is not to dialogue every trade I make but to speak generally and with particular emphasis on Rugby League as this is where my main interest lies.
To that end, and with the season set to kick off in 24 days, I will be looking to start making some Rugby League posts. Whilst my long term prognostication powers are less than impressive, I will hope to write some detailed previews on all teams as well as general articles on how I approach both Rugby League trading and how I often look to read games. I know that some of you are very keen to learn about Rugby League whilst maybe not having a great technical knowledge of the game, so if you have any questions feel free to ask them. There are far worse ways to spend your Friday and Saturday early evenings!
And with time running out, and the weather leaving me snowed in tomorrow (I opted to take a holiday rather than wait for a freezing train to crawl through levels of snow I have never seen before) I will have to start updating squad lists and pulling my thoughts together pretty soon!
Friday, 1 January 2010
Start as you mean to go on.
The start of a New Year is often a perfect opportunity to wipe the slate clean, dust yourself down and hit the refresh button and that’s exactly how I am approaching 2010. So, like most things, my trading adventure is set to start from the beginning again, with the results from 2009 a distant memory although hopefully the lessons learned will remain stored.
The plan for 2010 is very simple. Just enjoy trading, look to improve wherever possible and move away from financial objectives. Hopefully this blog will document all that and any lessons I learn which I feel would be of interest or value to others.
I traded two events today. The first was the Cambridge v Stevenage game which was curiously in play despite not being televised. All I did whilst cleaning out rubbish from old cupboards which had accumulated dust over several years was look to trade the match odds market before the kick off.
Given that I knew nothing about the sides, or any team news, I looked to be as cautious as possible and eventually settled for a green book of around £9 on each possible outcome. With hindsight, I could have taken advantage of the swings slightly more but trading on an event you know little about is notoriously risky. For example, a key player may have been ruled out and therefore a 2 or 3 tick swing could be irrecoverable as opposed to being a traditional punting swing. Stevenage were the victors, and my account profited to the tune of £9.02 before commission; £8.60 afterwards. Obviously a small amount monetary, but it was a pleasing win to start 2010.
This is something that I may look to do more of going forward. It is not really suitable for Premier League matches given the volumes natched, but if you are confident in your trading skills, I would imagine that it could be a worthwhile endeavour if combined with other activities, although I would guess that you are prone to late breaking news creating a large swing which could counter two or three wins.
The other event that I traded was the Sale v Harlequins Rugby Union match. I consider my forte to be in Rugby League trading and there are clear parallels between trading the two sports. Trading Rugby Union was something that I considered looking into at the end of the Super League season but never got around to doing. I also need to state that whilst I am a huge Rugby League fan, I dislike Rugby Union as much and have never watched an entire match.
Before the game, I had accumulated a profit nearing the amount I achieved on the Stevenage v Cambridge game, through similar strategies. The market benefited from good liquidity, and could have been a trader’s dream as the Sale price wobbled between 1.51 and 1.57 for no reason other than incoming money.
I also looked to monitor the market in play whilst I did other things but without a knowledge of Rugby Union as a game and without watching it, it’s hard to accurately comment on the price swings. Nonetheless, there were some clear similarities between the market and that which you would expect in a RL game, although I was amazed to see the draw as low as it was early on but it was the end of the game which reminded me of a Super League game and provided the greatest draw parallels.
With twenty minutes to go, and a 12 point lead, Sale, who were the favourites pre match, could be laid for 1.06. Now, tries in Rugby Union are less common than in League but this seemed very much a RL price. It only ever takes one piece of random luck such as the bounce of a ball from a kick, an inexplicable knock on, a curious refereeing decision, a desperately poor attempt at a tackle or a moment of genius from the attacking side to score a try. And obviously if one is scored, the market then reacts to any second attack from the trailing side, knowing that another score could create a flip flop on the scoreboard which, late in the game, is difficult to overturn.
However, as I wasn’t following the game, I didn’t get involved and am not recommending that 1.06 shots with 20 minutes to go in RU are an automatic lay. Rather, I am using this situation as support for my general theory of laying 1.1 in Rugby League.
The ending of the game would also provide excellent support as to why I love to trade the draw and how profits can be made.
Firstly, and it should be acknowledged that only pennies were matched, the draw drifted out to 100+ with a 12 point lead which in RL terms is two tries and one goal. In such a situation, I find it preferable to back the draw as opposed to merely laying the favourites. Whilst you could have laid the favourites 1.06, backing the draw at anything over 70 would be better in my view.
Obviously the chance of the draw at this point is less than the trailing side winning, but would it really be three times less likely (To achieve a near 100% book at 1.06, the trailing side would be around 23 if the draw was at 70) and even if it is, if you are confident of a turnaround then you should also factor in the fact that a try scored would bring the draw down allowing you to trade out whilst an unconverted score would mean that one more score could only allow for a draw or a win to the leading side.
So that’s one advantage to backing the draw in this situation.
As it was, a converted try was scored which brought the gap to a try and the draw was still available in the 20s. However, at times like this, a further score can obviously kill the draw and as a result, the liquidity on the draw drops from poor to very poor which then allows for greater gaps between backs and lays and quite often people who for their own reasons are desperate to get matched will and do take prices that do not represent anywhere near value. I suppose that getting matched in such a situation is akin to gambling, but if you are doing it regularly over a season and look to subsequently trade out any red, then over the long term your risk is massively diluted.
As an example of this situation working, in the St Helens v Wakefield game from last year, I got matched at 40 in a 2 point game with 2 minutes to go for £10. A penalty was subsequently awarded and the draw priced caved to 2 whilst there was also opportunities before hand to still lay off at around 20 and eliminate your red on the teams. The kick was actually missed but by that point I was already nicely green on every outcome.
In this game, I got matched for £2 at 34 and 42 before trading out between 15 and 20 and split my green accordingly not having a clue what the true prices should have been, before walking away with £14.50 before commission.
Obviously, this is all very easy to say. The difficulty is in knowing and recognising the best opportunities and that is something you can only learn from watching the game and the market. Not every 1.06 favourite is a lay, and some 1.06s are more attractive than others and that is the split second judgement that a trader has to make.
Thankfully, I’m better in RL than I am at Rugby Union!
Nonetheless, I managed to profit £22.42 on a day when I didn’t sit down and trade. This time last year, I’d have been very happy to have made such a profit on a day’s trading without any Rugby League.
The plan for 2010 is very simple. Just enjoy trading, look to improve wherever possible and move away from financial objectives. Hopefully this blog will document all that and any lessons I learn which I feel would be of interest or value to others.
I traded two events today. The first was the Cambridge v Stevenage game which was curiously in play despite not being televised. All I did whilst cleaning out rubbish from old cupboards which had accumulated dust over several years was look to trade the match odds market before the kick off.
Given that I knew nothing about the sides, or any team news, I looked to be as cautious as possible and eventually settled for a green book of around £9 on each possible outcome. With hindsight, I could have taken advantage of the swings slightly more but trading on an event you know little about is notoriously risky. For example, a key player may have been ruled out and therefore a 2 or 3 tick swing could be irrecoverable as opposed to being a traditional punting swing. Stevenage were the victors, and my account profited to the tune of £9.02 before commission; £8.60 afterwards. Obviously a small amount monetary, but it was a pleasing win to start 2010.
This is something that I may look to do more of going forward. It is not really suitable for Premier League matches given the volumes natched, but if you are confident in your trading skills, I would imagine that it could be a worthwhile endeavour if combined with other activities, although I would guess that you are prone to late breaking news creating a large swing which could counter two or three wins.
The other event that I traded was the Sale v Harlequins Rugby Union match. I consider my forte to be in Rugby League trading and there are clear parallels between trading the two sports. Trading Rugby Union was something that I considered looking into at the end of the Super League season but never got around to doing. I also need to state that whilst I am a huge Rugby League fan, I dislike Rugby Union as much and have never watched an entire match.
Before the game, I had accumulated a profit nearing the amount I achieved on the Stevenage v Cambridge game, through similar strategies. The market benefited from good liquidity, and could have been a trader’s dream as the Sale price wobbled between 1.51 and 1.57 for no reason other than incoming money.
I also looked to monitor the market in play whilst I did other things but without a knowledge of Rugby Union as a game and without watching it, it’s hard to accurately comment on the price swings. Nonetheless, there were some clear similarities between the market and that which you would expect in a RL game, although I was amazed to see the draw as low as it was early on but it was the end of the game which reminded me of a Super League game and provided the greatest draw parallels.
With twenty minutes to go, and a 12 point lead, Sale, who were the favourites pre match, could be laid for 1.06. Now, tries in Rugby Union are less common than in League but this seemed very much a RL price. It only ever takes one piece of random luck such as the bounce of a ball from a kick, an inexplicable knock on, a curious refereeing decision, a desperately poor attempt at a tackle or a moment of genius from the attacking side to score a try. And obviously if one is scored, the market then reacts to any second attack from the trailing side, knowing that another score could create a flip flop on the scoreboard which, late in the game, is difficult to overturn.
However, as I wasn’t following the game, I didn’t get involved and am not recommending that 1.06 shots with 20 minutes to go in RU are an automatic lay. Rather, I am using this situation as support for my general theory of laying 1.1 in Rugby League.
The ending of the game would also provide excellent support as to why I love to trade the draw and how profits can be made.
Firstly, and it should be acknowledged that only pennies were matched, the draw drifted out to 100+ with a 12 point lead which in RL terms is two tries and one goal. In such a situation, I find it preferable to back the draw as opposed to merely laying the favourites. Whilst you could have laid the favourites 1.06, backing the draw at anything over 70 would be better in my view.
Obviously the chance of the draw at this point is less than the trailing side winning, but would it really be three times less likely (To achieve a near 100% book at 1.06, the trailing side would be around 23 if the draw was at 70) and even if it is, if you are confident of a turnaround then you should also factor in the fact that a try scored would bring the draw down allowing you to trade out whilst an unconverted score would mean that one more score could only allow for a draw or a win to the leading side.
So that’s one advantage to backing the draw in this situation.
As it was, a converted try was scored which brought the gap to a try and the draw was still available in the 20s. However, at times like this, a further score can obviously kill the draw and as a result, the liquidity on the draw drops from poor to very poor which then allows for greater gaps between backs and lays and quite often people who for their own reasons are desperate to get matched will and do take prices that do not represent anywhere near value. I suppose that getting matched in such a situation is akin to gambling, but if you are doing it regularly over a season and look to subsequently trade out any red, then over the long term your risk is massively diluted.
As an example of this situation working, in the St Helens v Wakefield game from last year, I got matched at 40 in a 2 point game with 2 minutes to go for £10. A penalty was subsequently awarded and the draw priced caved to 2 whilst there was also opportunities before hand to still lay off at around 20 and eliminate your red on the teams. The kick was actually missed but by that point I was already nicely green on every outcome.
In this game, I got matched for £2 at 34 and 42 before trading out between 15 and 20 and split my green accordingly not having a clue what the true prices should have been, before walking away with £14.50 before commission.
Obviously, this is all very easy to say. The difficulty is in knowing and recognising the best opportunities and that is something you can only learn from watching the game and the market. Not every 1.06 favourite is a lay, and some 1.06s are more attractive than others and that is the split second judgement that a trader has to make.
Thankfully, I’m better in RL than I am at Rugby Union!
Nonetheless, I managed to profit £22.42 on a day when I didn’t sit down and trade. This time last year, I’d have been very happy to have made such a profit on a day’s trading without any Rugby League.
Monday, 28 December 2009
The past few months
So, where have I been for the past few months?
As I mentioned yesterday, I have had some personal issues to deal with and it's fair to say that these impacted upon my trading. I have mentioned previously that the concept of trading is one that I enjoy as much as the financial rewards it brings.
However, not only did I start to not enjoy my trading, but I started trading very poorly. Put simply, I wasn't preparing as I should and I wasn't thinking as I should. Maybe the best example of this is in the Castleford v Wigan playoff match and the Four Nations final where in both matches, I ended up with over £10,000 on the draw.
You might wonder what the problem with that is. However, it illustrated my muddled thinking. I was gambling on the draw rather than trading the match. I was also starting to feel pressure when trading. As opposed to welcoming any win, I became unduly concerned at losing trades. I have always been a largely risk averse person but I became a person who would take undue risks and then severely beat himself up when they didn’t come off.
But I can’t say it was all bad as I managed to earn over £1,000 on The X Factor although this was also increasingly frustrating as I lost effectively £500 in the last two weeks through bad trades and, most conceringly, just getting my maths wrong when trying to hedge between two markets. (Namely laying Olly for elimination and the win.)
I also never really got into NFL trading this year due to the games being on at the same time as The X Factor elimination show.
The biggest problem however was with regards to football trading where I basically adopted an investment plan on the Correct Score market. Now, I had a large enough bank to successfully pursue this strategy. However, I didn’t stick with this. The upshot of it being that when my selected scoreline looked like coming in, I would start to lay off. However, this belied the investment plan and basically things went horrendously wrong and the losses that I started to experience really started to affect my enjoyment.
This all came to a head on Boxing Day when whilst pursuing the strategy, I clicked the wrong button and ended up costing myself over £200. However, whereas previously I would internally beat myself up over this, I just laughed and resolved to kill the strategy.
It’s true that this strategy had indeed cost a lot of money but that was all down to my implementation and not the strategy itself. How much did it cost? A lot is the short answer but the long answer is that I have still achieved a ridiculous profit for 2009 from trading, will help me out with regards to the Premium Charge and has also possibly altered my approach to risk in trading which should have a huge impact upon my trading in 2010.
I also need to point out what whilst the financial rewards have been extremely generous and welcome, I am not reliant upon the earnings that I derive from trading. All they do is provide extras to allow me to shop non stop at Ted Baker, to provide beer money for watching England Test Cricket and to allow me to buy luxuries (The latest being a Tag Heuer watch). I already have a well paid job and am young enough to not have any major financial commitments.
Ironically, since then I have actually started to enjoy my trading a lot more and have even managed to earn over £250 on the four Premiership TV games just through trading the Correct Score market. At times, you need to place things in context, and those earnings are the equivalent of one week’s work for some of my friends which I have just been able to produce through watching football which is just incredible and hugely fortuitous.
So, that’s a brief run down of my trading exploits since my last blog update and now I feel the need to briefly comment on some developments in the trading world.
I started trading in 2008 but stared taking things seriously in 2009 when I joined the Racing Traders forum and became an obsessive user of Bet Trader Pro.
Obviously, Bet Trader Pro no longer exists which presents me with a very large problem which I will address below.
However, the first point I want to address is the demise of the RT forums. Trading can be a lonely hobby and one in which newbie need a lot of help and advice to succeed. Sadly, whilst the RL forum on Betfair is fantastic, the same can’t be said for most of the forums on there so the RT forums were really great as people helped each other and also provided a social community.
Sadly, they went the way of Bet Trader Pro as more and more aggressive squabbling, ridiculously antagonistic posts and people looking to help only themselves appeared. The community and a very valuable learning resource disappeared.
Thankfully, there now appears to be two replacements. Firstly, Tradeshark has set up an independent forum with the aim of helping others and setting up a community. It’s fair to say that it probably hasn’t taken off as envisaged and hasn’t attracted as many posters as you may hope, but the intentions are the best and there’s no doubt there are some very good and helpful people over there, especially with regards to tennis trading.
More generally, The Geek of RT fame has set up his own application and forum and that place has become a safe haven for the more intelligent, helpful and co-operative RT users. The forum has seemed to really take off and what was initially a place for people to validly criticise the events at RT seems to have developed into what The Geek’s initial aim at RT was. Namely, a community of traders who seek to help the less experienced out.
Once again, this is something that I hugely benefited from. I would not have developed my trading the way I did but for the RT forums and I am extremely hopeful that The Geek’s forum will carry on the initial work that was carried out by RT but it can only do so if people join and contribute so if anyone is reading this who is not a member of The Geek or Tradeshark’s forums, I would strongly advocate joining.
Without wanting to comment on the politics of the Racing Traders demise, the way that Bet Trader Pro has been discontinued has left me with a massive problem with my trading as I was a massive user of the system and it really suited my trading style. Put simply, I use the grid interface and need a program which allows for multiple back / lay windows open at once. (Especially in Rugby League where I assign a tick value to most events and look to trade the draw incessantly - I probably make / cancel 10 trades a minutes and the same is true of my F1 trading.)
The only program I have so far found with this capability is Bet Pod Pro which is a tremendous application and one that is being continuously developed. However, I have to say that it does have its limitations in terms of speed, cancelling bets and other issues which are solely caused through my style of trading. So, if anyone is aware of any programs which allow for multiple back/lay windows open at once please let me know!
So that is a brief run down of the past 3 months and 2010 looks like being a year very different to 2009. I’ll look to post my hopes for the blog and my trading in 2010 before the end of the year with a view to closing down and drawing a complete line under what has been a very eventful 2009.
As I mentioned yesterday, I have had some personal issues to deal with and it's fair to say that these impacted upon my trading. I have mentioned previously that the concept of trading is one that I enjoy as much as the financial rewards it brings.
However, not only did I start to not enjoy my trading, but I started trading very poorly. Put simply, I wasn't preparing as I should and I wasn't thinking as I should. Maybe the best example of this is in the Castleford v Wigan playoff match and the Four Nations final where in both matches, I ended up with over £10,000 on the draw.
You might wonder what the problem with that is. However, it illustrated my muddled thinking. I was gambling on the draw rather than trading the match. I was also starting to feel pressure when trading. As opposed to welcoming any win, I became unduly concerned at losing trades. I have always been a largely risk averse person but I became a person who would take undue risks and then severely beat himself up when they didn’t come off.
But I can’t say it was all bad as I managed to earn over £1,000 on The X Factor although this was also increasingly frustrating as I lost effectively £500 in the last two weeks through bad trades and, most conceringly, just getting my maths wrong when trying to hedge between two markets. (Namely laying Olly for elimination and the win.)
I also never really got into NFL trading this year due to the games being on at the same time as The X Factor elimination show.
The biggest problem however was with regards to football trading where I basically adopted an investment plan on the Correct Score market. Now, I had a large enough bank to successfully pursue this strategy. However, I didn’t stick with this. The upshot of it being that when my selected scoreline looked like coming in, I would start to lay off. However, this belied the investment plan and basically things went horrendously wrong and the losses that I started to experience really started to affect my enjoyment.
This all came to a head on Boxing Day when whilst pursuing the strategy, I clicked the wrong button and ended up costing myself over £200. However, whereas previously I would internally beat myself up over this, I just laughed and resolved to kill the strategy.
It’s true that this strategy had indeed cost a lot of money but that was all down to my implementation and not the strategy itself. How much did it cost? A lot is the short answer but the long answer is that I have still achieved a ridiculous profit for 2009 from trading, will help me out with regards to the Premium Charge and has also possibly altered my approach to risk in trading which should have a huge impact upon my trading in 2010.
I also need to point out what whilst the financial rewards have been extremely generous and welcome, I am not reliant upon the earnings that I derive from trading. All they do is provide extras to allow me to shop non stop at Ted Baker, to provide beer money for watching England Test Cricket and to allow me to buy luxuries (The latest being a Tag Heuer watch). I already have a well paid job and am young enough to not have any major financial commitments.
Ironically, since then I have actually started to enjoy my trading a lot more and have even managed to earn over £250 on the four Premiership TV games just through trading the Correct Score market. At times, you need to place things in context, and those earnings are the equivalent of one week’s work for some of my friends which I have just been able to produce through watching football which is just incredible and hugely fortuitous.
So, that’s a brief run down of my trading exploits since my last blog update and now I feel the need to briefly comment on some developments in the trading world.
I started trading in 2008 but stared taking things seriously in 2009 when I joined the Racing Traders forum and became an obsessive user of Bet Trader Pro.
Obviously, Bet Trader Pro no longer exists which presents me with a very large problem which I will address below.
However, the first point I want to address is the demise of the RT forums. Trading can be a lonely hobby and one in which newbie need a lot of help and advice to succeed. Sadly, whilst the RL forum on Betfair is fantastic, the same can’t be said for most of the forums on there so the RT forums were really great as people helped each other and also provided a social community.
Sadly, they went the way of Bet Trader Pro as more and more aggressive squabbling, ridiculously antagonistic posts and people looking to help only themselves appeared. The community and a very valuable learning resource disappeared.
Thankfully, there now appears to be two replacements. Firstly, Tradeshark has set up an independent forum with the aim of helping others and setting up a community. It’s fair to say that it probably hasn’t taken off as envisaged and hasn’t attracted as many posters as you may hope, but the intentions are the best and there’s no doubt there are some very good and helpful people over there, especially with regards to tennis trading.
More generally, The Geek of RT fame has set up his own application and forum and that place has become a safe haven for the more intelligent, helpful and co-operative RT users. The forum has seemed to really take off and what was initially a place for people to validly criticise the events at RT seems to have developed into what The Geek’s initial aim at RT was. Namely, a community of traders who seek to help the less experienced out.
Once again, this is something that I hugely benefited from. I would not have developed my trading the way I did but for the RT forums and I am extremely hopeful that The Geek’s forum will carry on the initial work that was carried out by RT but it can only do so if people join and contribute so if anyone is reading this who is not a member of The Geek or Tradeshark’s forums, I would strongly advocate joining.
Without wanting to comment on the politics of the Racing Traders demise, the way that Bet Trader Pro has been discontinued has left me with a massive problem with my trading as I was a massive user of the system and it really suited my trading style. Put simply, I use the grid interface and need a program which allows for multiple back / lay windows open at once. (Especially in Rugby League where I assign a tick value to most events and look to trade the draw incessantly - I probably make / cancel 10 trades a minutes and the same is true of my F1 trading.)
The only program I have so far found with this capability is Bet Pod Pro which is a tremendous application and one that is being continuously developed. However, I have to say that it does have its limitations in terms of speed, cancelling bets and other issues which are solely caused through my style of trading. So, if anyone is aware of any programs which allow for multiple back/lay windows open at once please let me know!
So that is a brief run down of the past 3 months and 2010 looks like being a year very different to 2009. I’ll look to post my hopes for the blog and my trading in 2010 before the end of the year with a view to closing down and drawing a complete line under what has been a very eventful 2009.
Sunday, 27 December 2009
I have returned
Hello world.
I'm not sure if anyone still visits this place but, in the event that anyone does, I have returned!
Where have I been? Well, I've still been trading but I've just had a few issues to deal with which have prevented me from finding the inclination and time to blog. Whilst these aren't fully resolved yet, I'm hoping they will be shortly and am sure I'll be able to keep the blog up to date from now on.
I'll document my trading activities for the past few months before the end of the year and then look to start blogging prospectively in the new year. The Rugby League season amazingly starts in just over a month's time so there's very little time to waste!
Anyway that's enough for now, except to say that I hope everyone reading this had a great Christmas and that I'll be back soon.
Craig.
I'm not sure if anyone still visits this place but, in the event that anyone does, I have returned!
Where have I been? Well, I've still been trading but I've just had a few issues to deal with which have prevented me from finding the inclination and time to blog. Whilst these aren't fully resolved yet, I'm hoping they will be shortly and am sure I'll be able to keep the blog up to date from now on.
I'll document my trading activities for the past few months before the end of the year and then look to start blogging prospectively in the new year. The Rugby League season amazingly starts in just over a month's time so there's very little time to waste!
Anyway that's enough for now, except to say that I hope everyone reading this had a great Christmas and that I'll be back soon.
Craig.
Sunday, 6 September 2009
Review of the weekend to date.
I was looking over some of my initial blog posts earlier and this reinforced the progress I have made. I probably would not have believed that eight months later I would be looking to pay the premium charge for the first time but that looks a 1.01 shot given my weekly results.
The two SKY Rugby League games this week were very different yet very similar in so far as a home favourite yo-yoed to begin with before coming home in the second half. However, anyone looking to trade the draw would have been stunned by the difference in the draw prices.
In the Saints v Leeds game, the draw struggled to rise above 30 in play in the first half which was a surprise. Now, I have always advocated backing the draw early on, and I do get uncomfortable when I don’t have a very large green on the draw as aside from the trading opportunities, it is also good insurance for a poor trade.
Recently however, I have become more comfortable with taking on red on the draw and this game was the perfect illustration of when to lay the draw. For whatever reason, the draw could be laid at 14 at Half Time. Now, the market seems to panic when the scores are level at Half Time as latecomers to the draw look to build up some green on the draw. However, a long term view is that the draw will not reduce in a linear fashion in the second half; and even if it does do given that the draw very rarely enters single figure territory until 60 minutes have gone, it is a fairly low risk trade and whilst the draw never exploded until very late on, it did rise enough to allow me to trade most out in the high teens and low twenties whilst also backing some back at around the laying price.
As for the game itself, it was a heated affair which resulted in one of the most ridiculous sin binnings of all time. Put simply, Keith Senior should have been sent off for his punch with two minutes to go, only for referee Phil Bentham to sin bin him. The colour of the card was irrelevant; Senior would be off for the rest of the match but he should have walked given the touch judges’ report on his punch whilst Leeds’ other tactics, including a disgraceful chicken wing tackle on James Graham, should also see one or two players take an enforced rest next week when they wrap up the Minor Premiership.
The rest of my trading was unspectacular; the only point of real note being my decision to oppose Saints when Leon Pryce was sin binned, only for that to not work out real well although I did at least manage to cut my losses before Saints’ first try although I was quite frustrated by the lack of liquidity on the game but Friday games won’t be the same without me whinging about liquidity!
Saturday’s game was quite the opposite with much more liquidity available which was quite bizarre given that the game conflicted with a cricket match, the US Open and England’s friendly! Still, that may have been helped by someone, or some people, strongly opposing the draw as the draw drifted from 30 to 40 in almost one movement before the match, and the draw was also heavily laid throughout the game early on which did allow me to build up several thousand on the draw which, at 16 – 12 to Hull KR, I felt very comfortable about whilst I even thought that Hull KR’s try on the hooter could be a very good thing, as it would ensure that I did not trade out too much at too high odds! However, a second stray Warrington pass, ensured that Hull KR went three scores up and that my draw bet was effectively over, although the increased liquidity and my draw trades did help me to my best result of the week at around £130.
I also got involved in the other games, with my strongest game being Wakefield v Catalans and whilst a draw lay and a back of Catalans being taken just before kick off did make me slightly nervous and disappointed (I really need to exit non TV games 15 minutes before kick off) I did end up earning a not inconsiderable £30.
A draw lay was also taken in the Wigan v Hull game which again made me slightly uneasy, especially given Hull’s first half performance, and I ended up with a very small £2 loss on the market.
Huddersfield v Celtic also saw Huddersfield start at 1.06 which, even for a layer like myself, was ridiculously high and I only wish I had been strong enough to take some of this and / or take more of the absurd 1.07 in play when Huddersfield were 6 – 0 up. As it was, I ended up winning around £2 from the main market, whilst Celtic’s late comeback allowed me to take around £5 from the handicap market.
Meanwhile, this weekend has fastened up two further strategies which I will look to commence next year. The fact that they could be heavily affected by one result means that I won’t look to implement them next week but I will outline them now.
The first is to lay the draw in non in play games. My draw backing in SKY games comes from the trading opportunities they offer; very few games will end up in a draw. Still, being able to lay the draw in the low 20s would seem to offer value although obviously I will need to strengthen my nerves to follow through on the strategy!
The second relates to handicaps and my reluctance to enter handicap markets because whilst a team will fight tooth and nail to hang on to a victory, they probably won’t always display the same commitment to win by 16 as opposed to 12. So, and whilst I acknowledge that liquidity may make this a non starter, I will look to consider laying handicap favourites in play at the end of games. As I mentioned, very little money gets matched on handicaps in play, although I may look to put out some prices towards the end of matches although this is something I will look to investigate more in the close season.
And the close season is rapidly approaching with just one more round of Super League and just a further 16 televised games remaining. Never fail however, because the NFL is starting up. I had limited success trading this last year and will need to look to reintroduce and refine my strategies for the upcoming year. I will look to outline my thoughts on the season and trades next week although one thing I have noticed is the amount of markets available before the season commences with the Superbowl market, Division markets, Conference markets and Team Win markets all looking to hold some value.
Still, I am unsure whether to get involved in these markets or whether this is too much like straight gambling. (Would this also interfere with my trading of individual matches?) Any thoughts from anyone would be greatly appreciated!
Still, that’s another matter for another day with slightly more pressing issues for today! The first is the premium charge with a £50 - £60 bill looking likely. I was tempted to look to possibly trade between Betfair and someone else to avoid the charge (even if there was little profit, at least it would avoid the premium charge!) but with Betdaq having no introductory offers and most Bookmakers limiting accounts these days, it probably is something that needs to be saved for another day.
Secondly, there are a further two SL matches today and whilst Quins v Cas looks to be priced fairly appropriately (although the draw is too short), I do feel that Bradford v Salford may offer some value and will look to possibly carry some liability in play on Bradford. 1.2 is too short and whilst Bradford stand on the verge of making the top 8 which would be a terrific achievement, I just think the current price is too short given that Bradford have struggled with consistency all season and that Salford have managed to beat both the top two teams this year. Still, that’s just my thought; anything can happen but we will know the outcome this afternoon!
The two SKY Rugby League games this week were very different yet very similar in so far as a home favourite yo-yoed to begin with before coming home in the second half. However, anyone looking to trade the draw would have been stunned by the difference in the draw prices.
In the Saints v Leeds game, the draw struggled to rise above 30 in play in the first half which was a surprise. Now, I have always advocated backing the draw early on, and I do get uncomfortable when I don’t have a very large green on the draw as aside from the trading opportunities, it is also good insurance for a poor trade.
Recently however, I have become more comfortable with taking on red on the draw and this game was the perfect illustration of when to lay the draw. For whatever reason, the draw could be laid at 14 at Half Time. Now, the market seems to panic when the scores are level at Half Time as latecomers to the draw look to build up some green on the draw. However, a long term view is that the draw will not reduce in a linear fashion in the second half; and even if it does do given that the draw very rarely enters single figure territory until 60 minutes have gone, it is a fairly low risk trade and whilst the draw never exploded until very late on, it did rise enough to allow me to trade most out in the high teens and low twenties whilst also backing some back at around the laying price.
As for the game itself, it was a heated affair which resulted in one of the most ridiculous sin binnings of all time. Put simply, Keith Senior should have been sent off for his punch with two minutes to go, only for referee Phil Bentham to sin bin him. The colour of the card was irrelevant; Senior would be off for the rest of the match but he should have walked given the touch judges’ report on his punch whilst Leeds’ other tactics, including a disgraceful chicken wing tackle on James Graham, should also see one or two players take an enforced rest next week when they wrap up the Minor Premiership.
The rest of my trading was unspectacular; the only point of real note being my decision to oppose Saints when Leon Pryce was sin binned, only for that to not work out real well although I did at least manage to cut my losses before Saints’ first try although I was quite frustrated by the lack of liquidity on the game but Friday games won’t be the same without me whinging about liquidity!
Saturday’s game was quite the opposite with much more liquidity available which was quite bizarre given that the game conflicted with a cricket match, the US Open and England’s friendly! Still, that may have been helped by someone, or some people, strongly opposing the draw as the draw drifted from 30 to 40 in almost one movement before the match, and the draw was also heavily laid throughout the game early on which did allow me to build up several thousand on the draw which, at 16 – 12 to Hull KR, I felt very comfortable about whilst I even thought that Hull KR’s try on the hooter could be a very good thing, as it would ensure that I did not trade out too much at too high odds! However, a second stray Warrington pass, ensured that Hull KR went three scores up and that my draw bet was effectively over, although the increased liquidity and my draw trades did help me to my best result of the week at around £130.
I also got involved in the other games, with my strongest game being Wakefield v Catalans and whilst a draw lay and a back of Catalans being taken just before kick off did make me slightly nervous and disappointed (I really need to exit non TV games 15 minutes before kick off) I did end up earning a not inconsiderable £30.
A draw lay was also taken in the Wigan v Hull game which again made me slightly uneasy, especially given Hull’s first half performance, and I ended up with a very small £2 loss on the market.
Huddersfield v Celtic also saw Huddersfield start at 1.06 which, even for a layer like myself, was ridiculously high and I only wish I had been strong enough to take some of this and / or take more of the absurd 1.07 in play when Huddersfield were 6 – 0 up. As it was, I ended up winning around £2 from the main market, whilst Celtic’s late comeback allowed me to take around £5 from the handicap market.
Meanwhile, this weekend has fastened up two further strategies which I will look to commence next year. The fact that they could be heavily affected by one result means that I won’t look to implement them next week but I will outline them now.
The first is to lay the draw in non in play games. My draw backing in SKY games comes from the trading opportunities they offer; very few games will end up in a draw. Still, being able to lay the draw in the low 20s would seem to offer value although obviously I will need to strengthen my nerves to follow through on the strategy!
The second relates to handicaps and my reluctance to enter handicap markets because whilst a team will fight tooth and nail to hang on to a victory, they probably won’t always display the same commitment to win by 16 as opposed to 12. So, and whilst I acknowledge that liquidity may make this a non starter, I will look to consider laying handicap favourites in play at the end of games. As I mentioned, very little money gets matched on handicaps in play, although I may look to put out some prices towards the end of matches although this is something I will look to investigate more in the close season.
And the close season is rapidly approaching with just one more round of Super League and just a further 16 televised games remaining. Never fail however, because the NFL is starting up. I had limited success trading this last year and will need to look to reintroduce and refine my strategies for the upcoming year. I will look to outline my thoughts on the season and trades next week although one thing I have noticed is the amount of markets available before the season commences with the Superbowl market, Division markets, Conference markets and Team Win markets all looking to hold some value.
Still, I am unsure whether to get involved in these markets or whether this is too much like straight gambling. (Would this also interfere with my trading of individual matches?) Any thoughts from anyone would be greatly appreciated!
Still, that’s another matter for another day with slightly more pressing issues for today! The first is the premium charge with a £50 - £60 bill looking likely. I was tempted to look to possibly trade between Betfair and someone else to avoid the charge (even if there was little profit, at least it would avoid the premium charge!) but with Betdaq having no introductory offers and most Bookmakers limiting accounts these days, it probably is something that needs to be saved for another day.
Secondly, there are a further two SL matches today and whilst Quins v Cas looks to be priced fairly appropriately (although the draw is too short), I do feel that Bradford v Salford may offer some value and will look to possibly carry some liability in play on Bradford. 1.2 is too short and whilst Bradford stand on the verge of making the top 8 which would be a terrific achievement, I just think the current price is too short given that Bradford have struggled with consistency all season and that Salford have managed to beat both the top two teams this year. Still, that’s just my thought; anything can happen but we will know the outcome this afternoon!
Thursday, 3 September 2009
You play to win the game.
This week’s National League 1 game was by far the most infuriating game I can remember this season. It is perfectly acceptable that a couple of refereeing decisions might go one way, the ball might bounce another way, that’s part of the unique randomness that makes Rugby League so great. However, when a team plays with a certain disregard and apathy to whether they win or not; well there is nothing wrong with that as they are perfectly entitled to do so but it sure is frustrating.
Barrow travelled to Sheffield in tonight’s SKY game knowing that they only needed to gain a “Bonus point” to secure the league. Meanwhile, Sheffield were faced with the prospect of finishing anywhere between 2nd and 6th so were desperate for a win.
Trailing by twelve in the second half, Barrow received a penalty in Sheffield’s half where they made the decision to go for goal. At this stage of the game, the rationale behind the decision was clear. Barrow had little concern as to whether they won or lost; the key aspect was whether they got the bonus point or no points. (A bonus point is awarded to any team losing by 12 or less.) It was a slightly curious decision, because 2 points by itself would not have any real advantage unless Sheffield then dropped a goal.
It did make sense that when Barrow got another penalty, they would go for a further 2 points – keeping the bonus point should Sheffield get an unconverted try.
Barrow then dropped a goal to lower the margin to 7. Again, a slightly curious decision because again by itself, it would have a limited impact although it would make a huge difference when Barrow then dropped another goal, meaning that even another Sheffield try would ensure that Barrow kept their bonus point.
Only Sheffield didn’t follow the script, or followed it too well, as Barrow ended up getting another try to somehow draw level, before a late Sheffield drop goal and try ensured that Sheffield won by 7 in a result that kept both teams happy.
Now, I have no issue with either team. They both had an objective to meet and even though I disagree with Barrow’s method (their safety first approach actually created further risk in my opinion) you can’t blame them. They had nothing to gain by winning as opposed to obtaining the bonus result and in no way was the game “fixed”.
My immediate frustrations were more with my trading, which I shall explain shortly, but before I do, I hope that the fundamental flaw with the bonus point system has been promoted. It is a system which rewards one side whilst not punishing the other. (Obviously there is the issue of points difference but in a game tight enough to invoke the bonus point, a 6 point swing in points difference is negligible.)
And Sheffield themselves have been perhaps the greatest beneficiary of the bonus point system, given that they currently sit 2nd despite winning less games than the team in 6th! The Eagles have achieved the bonus point in each of their losses and maybe it does reward consistency (mediocrity I would suggest).
However, if the RFL are to continue with such a system, and I don’t think they should; the argument that it keeps losing teams “interested” is flawed because any team that is close enough to the bonus point will still have a chance to win (until the very end) whereas a real thrashing will not be brought back to the bonus point! then I think at the very least a system needs to be incorporated where a team is punished for allowing a bonus point. This could be very easily achieved by having a Points system of 4 for a win, 2 for a draw and 0 for a loss, but 3 and 1 if the game qualifies for a bonus point.
Anyway, enough of my thoughts on RL in general; there will be an off-season for them, and onto my trading! My style of trading is very much to trade the market to apportion the green as I see fit. It is something that I have done very well this season; except for tonight where whenever I backed one team, the advantage would shift to the other!
It got to the stage where I just found it funny. I seemed to be able to control the course of the game and somehow at Half Time, I was only effectively £30 down. In part this was due to my draw trading; I had over £2,000 on the draw; a result of the poor liquidity on the draw in National League games! I even got the price swing at Half Time wrong, well I actually got it right, but I had bailed just before the market suddenly swung 3 or 4 ticks!
Anyway, my second half trading was better to begin with, catching onto Sheffield’s score and trading the draw well before Barrow decided to just go for the bonus point. At this time, I had around £2,000 on the draw, a couple of hundred on Barrow and a red of around £150 on Sheffield.
However, when I saw Barrow’s antics, I basically gave up trading the game. I looked to just get out at any price only for Barrow to comeback and see my 1.1 backs of Sheffield and my Draw lays of 30+ go to 2.5 and 6! I’ll let you count up how much that cost me, but it wasn’t over yet as in my haste to try to get on Sheffield in a change of possession, I actually missed the price I wanted and got the next. Only for the liquidity to be so bad that instead of getting 2, I got 1.2!
Looking back, I suppose it was near enough a miracle to win just under £100, but it could have been so much more… And it should have been. I just got so agitated by Barrow’s tactics that I failed to appreciate the context of the match and yet again, I had an abysmal trading performance only to be helped out at the end for a reasonable profit.
Still, I missed out on a chance to earn a larger amount, which I need to start doing on account of my recent qualification for the Premium Charge. Forgive me if I fail to celebrate too loudly. At least Betfair did notify me that they would reimburse the charge for the first week (Gee that was nice but why not also reimburse the remaining allowance for that week as well?) A whole £27.02, I can’t imagine all the delights I can buy with that, but at least Betfair did have the grace to point out that the charge would only apply if I continued to be “successful” (Not true – if I win one week and then lose the next; you don’t refund it!) and they even had the modesty to sign off with Betfair – Betting as it should be. (Indeed, if you like losing approximately 20% of your winnings through a calculation that no-one understands and cannot replicate!)
A quick preview of the weekend’s action, and I do mean quick because I am in need of sleep!
Saints v Leeds – The value will come in play as usual. It depends on which Saints side turns up and whether the rumoured disagreements with Coach Potter are actually true. One to watch.
Wigan v Hull FC – It’s hard to see Hull winning a second successive game but you guys know my feelings on 1.1 or 1.2 shots! Especially when the other team are so reliant upon a rookie halfback who can very easily have an off day. (See Myler, Richard.)
Moving onto Saturday
Hull KR v Warrington – Again, wait and see. The value will come in play and whilst it is a must win game for Warrington, will their Cup celebrations have adversely affected their preparations? Tony Smith is a stickler for detail, but it is incredibly hard to focus fully after such an emotional high. Personally, if Warrington win here and go onto make the playoffs, it would be such an achievement that I would make them a good shot to get to Old Trafford.
Celtic v Huddersfield – Obviously Celtic are putting out youngsters who aren’t ready for Super League, but remember, the same was said about Huddersfield against Saints. Not one to invest wisely in, but if you have £2 which the premium charge would otherwise take, there are worse ways to lose it.
Catalans v Wakefield – Classic case of overrated home bias. Catalans should be favourites and are most likely to win, but might the pressure get to them? Whilst Catalans do have a genuine home advantage, do not forget that Wakefield have had 2 weeks to prepare, and anything over 3 is worth strong consideration.
Finally, on Sunday there are two games.
Bradford v Salford – A mixture of Catalans and Wigan. Bradford are again the clear favourites, but it must be remembered that Salford have defeated both the top two this year (so have Bradford as well). Bradford have put together an excellent run of late but might the week off have stalled their progress? They need to win to keep their incredibly faint playoff hopes alive (although they could be crushed before they play). Again, anything in the 1.1 – 1.2s is worth a back of the away side. It’s worked up until now.
Harlequins v Castleford – The tightest game of the round and probably the most important. Whoever loses will be all but out of playoff contention, although Castleford’s last match against Celtic could see them scrape through even with a loss here. A very tough game to call as my two main strategies conflict. (Recent poor form v Home bias) For that reason, I’d be tempted to go with the outsider which is currently Castleford, but this is obviously not a very strong call!
Although, as with all of them, I have qualified and disqualified them all so many times in my head that whatever happens, I won’t be surprised! If only I stuck to my original opinions, I would have had a much better season (Probably!) And remember, as usual, I’ll send you a 100% refund cheque for the cost of my tips if they go wrong.
14 Super League games remaining, and 18 Televised games remaining so it is time to make the most of everyone of them before I attempt to re-find my social life on weekends!
Barrow travelled to Sheffield in tonight’s SKY game knowing that they only needed to gain a “Bonus point” to secure the league. Meanwhile, Sheffield were faced with the prospect of finishing anywhere between 2nd and 6th so were desperate for a win.
Trailing by twelve in the second half, Barrow received a penalty in Sheffield’s half where they made the decision to go for goal. At this stage of the game, the rationale behind the decision was clear. Barrow had little concern as to whether they won or lost; the key aspect was whether they got the bonus point or no points. (A bonus point is awarded to any team losing by 12 or less.) It was a slightly curious decision, because 2 points by itself would not have any real advantage unless Sheffield then dropped a goal.
It did make sense that when Barrow got another penalty, they would go for a further 2 points – keeping the bonus point should Sheffield get an unconverted try.
Barrow then dropped a goal to lower the margin to 7. Again, a slightly curious decision because again by itself, it would have a limited impact although it would make a huge difference when Barrow then dropped another goal, meaning that even another Sheffield try would ensure that Barrow kept their bonus point.
Only Sheffield didn’t follow the script, or followed it too well, as Barrow ended up getting another try to somehow draw level, before a late Sheffield drop goal and try ensured that Sheffield won by 7 in a result that kept both teams happy.
Now, I have no issue with either team. They both had an objective to meet and even though I disagree with Barrow’s method (their safety first approach actually created further risk in my opinion) you can’t blame them. They had nothing to gain by winning as opposed to obtaining the bonus result and in no way was the game “fixed”.
My immediate frustrations were more with my trading, which I shall explain shortly, but before I do, I hope that the fundamental flaw with the bonus point system has been promoted. It is a system which rewards one side whilst not punishing the other. (Obviously there is the issue of points difference but in a game tight enough to invoke the bonus point, a 6 point swing in points difference is negligible.)
And Sheffield themselves have been perhaps the greatest beneficiary of the bonus point system, given that they currently sit 2nd despite winning less games than the team in 6th! The Eagles have achieved the bonus point in each of their losses and maybe it does reward consistency (mediocrity I would suggest).
However, if the RFL are to continue with such a system, and I don’t think they should; the argument that it keeps losing teams “interested” is flawed because any team that is close enough to the bonus point will still have a chance to win (until the very end) whereas a real thrashing will not be brought back to the bonus point! then I think at the very least a system needs to be incorporated where a team is punished for allowing a bonus point. This could be very easily achieved by having a Points system of 4 for a win, 2 for a draw and 0 for a loss, but 3 and 1 if the game qualifies for a bonus point.
Anyway, enough of my thoughts on RL in general; there will be an off-season for them, and onto my trading! My style of trading is very much to trade the market to apportion the green as I see fit. It is something that I have done very well this season; except for tonight where whenever I backed one team, the advantage would shift to the other!
It got to the stage where I just found it funny. I seemed to be able to control the course of the game and somehow at Half Time, I was only effectively £30 down. In part this was due to my draw trading; I had over £2,000 on the draw; a result of the poor liquidity on the draw in National League games! I even got the price swing at Half Time wrong, well I actually got it right, but I had bailed just before the market suddenly swung 3 or 4 ticks!
Anyway, my second half trading was better to begin with, catching onto Sheffield’s score and trading the draw well before Barrow decided to just go for the bonus point. At this time, I had around £2,000 on the draw, a couple of hundred on Barrow and a red of around £150 on Sheffield.
However, when I saw Barrow’s antics, I basically gave up trading the game. I looked to just get out at any price only for Barrow to comeback and see my 1.1 backs of Sheffield and my Draw lays of 30+ go to 2.5 and 6! I’ll let you count up how much that cost me, but it wasn’t over yet as in my haste to try to get on Sheffield in a change of possession, I actually missed the price I wanted and got the next. Only for the liquidity to be so bad that instead of getting 2, I got 1.2!
Looking back, I suppose it was near enough a miracle to win just under £100, but it could have been so much more… And it should have been. I just got so agitated by Barrow’s tactics that I failed to appreciate the context of the match and yet again, I had an abysmal trading performance only to be helped out at the end for a reasonable profit.
Still, I missed out on a chance to earn a larger amount, which I need to start doing on account of my recent qualification for the Premium Charge. Forgive me if I fail to celebrate too loudly. At least Betfair did notify me that they would reimburse the charge for the first week (Gee that was nice but why not also reimburse the remaining allowance for that week as well?) A whole £27.02, I can’t imagine all the delights I can buy with that, but at least Betfair did have the grace to point out that the charge would only apply if I continued to be “successful” (Not true – if I win one week and then lose the next; you don’t refund it!) and they even had the modesty to sign off with Betfair – Betting as it should be. (Indeed, if you like losing approximately 20% of your winnings through a calculation that no-one understands and cannot replicate!)
A quick preview of the weekend’s action, and I do mean quick because I am in need of sleep!
Saints v Leeds – The value will come in play as usual. It depends on which Saints side turns up and whether the rumoured disagreements with Coach Potter are actually true. One to watch.
Wigan v Hull FC – It’s hard to see Hull winning a second successive game but you guys know my feelings on 1.1 or 1.2 shots! Especially when the other team are so reliant upon a rookie halfback who can very easily have an off day. (See Myler, Richard.)
Moving onto Saturday
Hull KR v Warrington – Again, wait and see. The value will come in play and whilst it is a must win game for Warrington, will their Cup celebrations have adversely affected their preparations? Tony Smith is a stickler for detail, but it is incredibly hard to focus fully after such an emotional high. Personally, if Warrington win here and go onto make the playoffs, it would be such an achievement that I would make them a good shot to get to Old Trafford.
Celtic v Huddersfield – Obviously Celtic are putting out youngsters who aren’t ready for Super League, but remember, the same was said about Huddersfield against Saints. Not one to invest wisely in, but if you have £2 which the premium charge would otherwise take, there are worse ways to lose it.
Catalans v Wakefield – Classic case of overrated home bias. Catalans should be favourites and are most likely to win, but might the pressure get to them? Whilst Catalans do have a genuine home advantage, do not forget that Wakefield have had 2 weeks to prepare, and anything over 3 is worth strong consideration.
Finally, on Sunday there are two games.
Bradford v Salford – A mixture of Catalans and Wigan. Bradford are again the clear favourites, but it must be remembered that Salford have defeated both the top two this year (so have Bradford as well). Bradford have put together an excellent run of late but might the week off have stalled their progress? They need to win to keep their incredibly faint playoff hopes alive (although they could be crushed before they play). Again, anything in the 1.1 – 1.2s is worth a back of the away side. It’s worked up until now.
Harlequins v Castleford – The tightest game of the round and probably the most important. Whoever loses will be all but out of playoff contention, although Castleford’s last match against Celtic could see them scrape through even with a loss here. A very tough game to call as my two main strategies conflict. (Recent poor form v Home bias) For that reason, I’d be tempted to go with the outsider which is currently Castleford, but this is obviously not a very strong call!
Although, as with all of them, I have qualified and disqualified them all so many times in my head that whatever happens, I won’t be surprised! If only I stuck to my original opinions, I would have had a much better season (Probably!) And remember, as usual, I’ll send you a 100% refund cheque for the cost of my tips if they go wrong.
14 Super League games remaining, and 18 Televised games remaining so it is time to make the most of everyone of them before I attempt to re-find my social life on weekends!
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