Monday, 5 April 2010

One year on

I’m at an age in my life where years speed by faster than you would like but the progress in my trading over the past twelve months has been so vast that I could easily believe it has been twelve years.

Twelve months ago to the day, I wrote this where I outlined my plans to take my trading endeavours more seriously.

The truth is, a lot of my bad habits remain. I do trade out too soon. I do panic too much at the sight of red. I do focus on “winning” too much. I do kick myself unnecessarily and most importantly of all, I still do not take the risks that I had hoped increased exposure to trading would help me to.

However, in terms of market knowledge and its application and in terms of profit, I do not think I could have ever anticipated being at the level I am currently at. Of course, markets do not stand still but constantly evolve, and are doing, and my success could be turned into failure at any time. However, as someone who drives themselves to beyond perfection and is never satisfied, I feel I should step back, achieve focus and congratulate myself for my achievements – even if they have come to the detriment of several other areas.

Reviewing my posts from April 2009 in particular, I see my astonishment at earning £700 from one rugby league match and my aim towards my income in general. Well, I’m now at the stage where even when I have earned £600 - £700 per week, I kick myself and feel I have underachieved. A case of redefined boundaries for sure but in a broader context, that is a jaw dropping amount for a hobby which is in addition to my day job.

Of course, the aim now is to take my trading exploits to another level, but I have to admit, I am not sure how. Of course, I should look to increase my exposure to risk and be more willing to let trades run, perhaps stick to a pre defined plan in relation to investing in Rugby League markets, but there is no simple on / off switch I can press to produce a difference in my attitude this time.

It would be very nice to have a list of goals to set for the next twelve months, but that will have to wait for now. Maybe, however, my goal for the next twelve months should relate to development in my personal life – where I have quite clearly fallen short recently.

That is an area of my life which I have largely left off my blog for valid reasons apart from references to my decision re: Law school last year and references to “personal issues” earlier this year. The fact is, I would imagine that anyone who reads the blog can already make certain assumptions based upon the general tone of my comments! (Why do I always feel more willing to list these things late at night!)

Clearly, the number one thing to address would have to be commitment to perfectionism and fear of failure. Whilst these are very decent goals to have in life, they can actually have a very negative, stalling effect as can be evidenced throughout my trading. That is also just the tip of the iceberg of the things I wish to change about myself following a highly tumultuous past three years but I would dare suggest that is probably all I should say for now on a public forum!

However, if regular readers (Are there any – who actually reads this *****!) can spot any other areas for development please, please, please leave a comment!

That is definitely something to ponder – but for the next thirty minutes I shall bask in a glow of contentment before reverting to type and criticising myself for every area in which I fall short of perfection!

And I shall also briefly comment on today’s Formula One race in which I enjoyed pleasing success.

As to be expected, I almost fully equalised prior to the start – deciding that a green of around £100 was far better than a green of £110 and £0 on Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton. I was also able to increase that by around 50% during the race itself which was particularly pleasing.

As for the race itself, I continue to observe a market which behaves differently to how I would expect. Despite a tremendous start, I never saw Lewis Hamilton trade in single figures, whilst Felipe Massa, Jenson Button and Fernando Alonso all drifted but not to huge extents. The price on Alonso was particularly baffling given the noted problem with his car and the fact that he was behind Felipe baby, which would have meant that even if rain would have resulted in an alternative strategy – he would have been second in line for any pit stop.

There seems to be a definite advantage for in play position takers but as a trader, it is my job to spot these trends and to try to profit accordingly. Especially when I am all green, it would be relatively foolish to take large positions for the sake of a relatively long shot.

One thing that has interested me the most as well has been a pivot table that I have put together to indicate my success and failure on all drivers actually during the race and qualifying. The markets pre event and during event are two different beasts and as a trader, it is always nice to review statistics to see if they match with the belief I held during the race. Plus, I am a statistics junkie! So that is something to work on prior to China.

Finally, I have posted a quick preview of Round 10 in the Super League and this can be found here - if anyone is sufficiently interested.


  1. Well done of sticking with trading for over a year, it's great to hear about people doing well on the exchanges.

  2. Great stuff. Just read this post and the one you done a year ago. Sounds like you have achieved a lot and should be basking in a glow on contentment!

    Out of interest, did you find any other sports to trade when you were looking at them last year? Do you stick to Rugby and F1 or do you dabble in any others?

    I’m thinking about giving football a go but when I have tried in the past I just cannot match the success I get on F1 at it ends up annoying me, then having a knock on effect to my F1 trading because I’m not in the mood.

  3. Thanks for the kind words Anonymous.

    Hi Flutter. Contentment would be nice, but there's still a lot to improve!

    I think F1 was the main sport I found in addition to my RL trading and given the fact that F1 takes up a lot of time in connection to my RL trading, I never really explored anything else apart from taking my draw approach from RL over to RU to make a few pennies and delving in the Correct Score market on football.

    I find that market the best because, given my limited knowledge of football, you can apply more of a trading mindset to the market rather than just a "I think Team X will score next" approach - although I haven't had the time to continue with trading the market since the RL season started.

    I also had a look at NFL as that dovetails with the RL season but my approach there is more akin to very small trades based upon my knowledge of the game.

    I think the key is to find an edge of some sorts, and work through it. You will probably never find something as good as your key area, but you can sure develop some good secondary markets which can even help to improve your usual trading.

    Thanks for stopping by and all the best.


  4. Patience and perseverance are one of the top key to be able to become successful.. To have these traits you should be motivated and inspired and that is through your own passion..