Round 5

I imagine this will be without doubt my shortest work, as this week of Rugby League action looks, on paper, to be one of the most uninspiring that we have been treated to in a while. Although it may just be that any optimism has been dulled by one of my worst weeks trading wise last week which saw a 1.04 reversal in the annual Varsity match last year stick in my mind unduly despite there being an enormous gulf in quality between the two sides. An alcohol strengthened blind judgement call which turned out to be erroneous and a malfunctioning phone which contributed to not leaving a market at the appropriate time.

The total cost was less than my earnings in the World Club Challenge, but being someone who looks to draw arbitrary distinctions on a monthly basis, it wasn’t the best start.

Friday’s three games look set to see the favourites all set off at below 1.2 and the biggest gulf looks set to be in the televised game where Warrington travel to Wakefield. It seems almost absurd that Wakefield were 1.6 home favourites just two weeks ago. However, Warrington look in danger of being hugely overrated if they do set off at the 1.0 price that current looks probable although Warrington are undeniably clear favourites.

Wakefield do have a reputation however for raising their game when it matters and I have to say I actually expect them to produce a competitive performance against a Warrington side which is without Brett Hodgson and Adrian Morley. Still, it is very hard to see Warrington trailing at the final hooter, although I know who I’d rather be backing at the current prices.

But if you merely wanted value, look no further than the sheer absurdity of the price in the St Helens Harlequins game. Now, Harlequins’ bubble may have burst last week with their defeat to Huddersfield but they have proved that they are a competent side. Meanwhile, St Helens look to be a side whose best days have passed and have a lengthy injury list including key creators Leon Pryce and Jon Wilkin and have strong doubts over prop forwards Josh Perry and Louie McCarthy Scarsbrook. Throw in an uninterested Kyle Eastmond and a rookie stand off, and the price of 1.2 looks one that would have been calculated Pre Season and not one that reflects the ability of the teams.

Harlequins have managed one shock victory this year and it is said that lightning doesn’t strike twice. Maybe not, but this price sure looks indefensible.

The other Friday night game sees Leeds host Salford. The Rhinos go into the game with no recognised prop forwards and an injury list as long as most people’s shopping lists. Salford are no mugs and are capable of a victory, their recent performances have not displayed their potential, but you would think that Leeds’ massive desire for a win and a better performance after a lukewarm start under coach Brian McDermott should see them home, but the value would appear to lie with the visitors.

Saturday’s televised game looks set to be overshadowed by an irrelevant competition called the Six Nations which you may have heard about. Castleford have had a great start to the season and do look too long at 1.4 against a Catalans side that are yet to display any of their traditional flair but one could question whether Castleford could sub-consciously ease off. However, the key for this game is to get a second opinion on Scott Dureau, the Catalans halfback who looked dire against Harlequins in the season opener. A team can only go as far as their halfbacks will take them and Dureau’s performance could indicate how the Catalans will fare until Thomas Bosc returns.

Amazingly, Sunday also sees a further three games with very strong home favourites.

Wigan host Hull and whilst Hull are coming off an impressive display last week, it is hard to see Hull gaining something from the match. Certainly, 1.25 looks as fair a home favourite price but the more this slips, the more the value edges towards a Hull side who, on their day, could compete with any side in Super League.

Huddersfield host Bradford and again, their starting price of around 1.4 looks fair although this may be due to the fact that I seemingly have Bradford rated far, far lower than anyone else which is something to factor into any equations. Certainly, Bradford are far from no hopers but I don’t see value screaming out to me at the current prices.

Lastly, Super League looks set to welcome Willie Mason as Hull KR host Crusaders. I’ve wrote previously that I haven’t been able to get a hold on Crusaders but with Michael Dobson missing for the hosts, this match looks to have the most value for away backers. You would expect that the frenzy created through Mason’s introduction should see the Robins home, but they still need to create the tries and if the price is in the 1.1s, I would be very careful as the Crusaders have shown this year that they can score points.

After a bad week, the tendency is to go conservative and there are very few high value opportunities this week. However, if you put your head away totally you miss everything, and I would be more surprised if there was not two games that go against the grain this weekend. Which two? Well, if you know, please let me know!