Monday, 13 April 2009

Losing my nerve.

Identifying value in in-play Rugby League markets is something that I regularly find success in. However, I have always maintained that finding value in games which you can’t see is much tougher. The truth is, the range of performance is such that I don’t think anyone can predict what will happen. What should? That’s possible, but should’s don’t pay the bills.

However, as I mentioned in the previous post, I have had some success in flipping the coin recently. Maybe that’s because when I predict underdogs, you don’t need a 50/50 success rate. I also think this is particularly true at this time of year. Playing 2 games in 3 or 4 days is such a tough task, that it automatically pushes the teams closer together.

I identified possible value last night, and so set out to back Hull, Castleford, Bradford and Huddersfield. I managed to obtain small risk free bets on Hull and Salford, and also managed to get £25 bets matched on Huddersfield and Bradford, and £6 on Castleford. All in all, a combined liability of less than 3% of my bank.

Yet, I panicked. I ended up reducing my liability to around £4 in the Hull KR and Wakefield games, and half that in the Castleford game, and even then I traded away potential profit in the Hull KR and Castleford games, equalising green, although the sheer lack of liquidity means that reducing the red on a losing trade is impossible, even when the game is relatively close.

In the end, I did make around £10, largely thanks to Salford’s unexpected, but not impossible, performance. Maybe I am uncomfortable committing money with no escape route on a situation I can’t see, but it just feels another potential profitable opportunity that I am not taking advantage of.

Onto the in-play game today and I did not have a great pre game trading, losing any potential profit as I continued to lay Wigan even as they crashed. I really have no idea why Wigan started at a price even lower than most bookmakers! But like the Leeds game on Friday, I was once again caught out, even if I was more aware of the situation this time.

Although it did look like Lumpy would be about to win one in straight forward fashion at one time, Catalans caught a direct train to 1.01 despite Wigan being 1.4 early on! Thankfully, that put me in the almost unprecedented situation of having a three figure green at HT. I did “lose” some of this by keeping a very large green on the draw, should Wigan come back, as I looked for further opportunities in the second half, unsuccessfully (and any small successes were shifted onto Wigan and / or the Draw), but I can’t be too disappointed with an end three figure result from a game in which the draw never approached single figures.

However, I do feel that the policy of keeping equal green on the sides in the first half may be best adjusted. I can’t say for certain but after greening up practically as soon as Catalans hit evens, it does feel that I did waste a large amount of potential winnings, although equally, if Wigan had gone on a ride to 1.01, I do wonder whether I would be having these thoughts!

As always, any feedback would be greatly appreciated and welcomed!

One final thought, despite the tone of the blog, it should be pointed out that I am rather happy with my progress over the past few days. If there was this much RL on all the time, then I obviously would be in a very good financial position! I just want to note that I am a person who suffers from perfectionism, and will always look for ways to improve, rather than sit back and enjoy my achievements as is, no matter what they are. However, even I recognise that a total profit of around £275 since Thursday evening is a very good achievement, especially considering that I have really only traded Rugby League during this period!

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