Wednesday, 1 April 2009

Temporary Interruption

I interrupt setting out my plans for world domination to provide a brief update on tonight’s trading.

Up until yesterday, I would have gone home from work and looked to trade the England football game. However, as I previously outlined, my new daily commute could impact upon my trading. The reason being that whilst I usually like to follow the market beforehand (Or at least have the window open to see liquidity / shifts) to get a feel for its general direction, spending an hour and a bit on a train after work probably isn’t conducive to this!

However, I had thought that getting in at around half six would allow me enough time to do the things I needed to get done whilst briefly following the market; indeed I could always get a quick overview from mobile internet and Lite Betfair. But I had forgotten one thing. One crucial thing. Namely National Rail, as my train was delayed and then cancelled due to, reports of “a cow on the line”.

So, late home and having not been bothered to check the market out, I was initially planning to skip the game and not trade, until I changed my mind at the last moment, loaded up BetTrader and decided to follow my 2-1 / 1-2 strategy having quickly looked at the odds, for a total liability of £10 (£7 on 1-2 and 2-1, £3 on Any Unquoted).

This strategy, which I will explain in more detail later, sees me back 2-1 and 1-2 with a proportionate saver on Any Unquoted. The line of thinking behind this is that the game can usually go in three ways; no goals (which allows me to take advantage of my 0-0 trading which I am comfortable with and have previously outlined), the underdog scores (which sees 1-2 and 2-1 prices come into the sphere of 1-1 and 2-0 prices, which tend to allow for a reasonable green) or the favourite romps home (bringing in Any Unquoted).

Of course, it isn’t that simple in reality, and I need to work on my laying off and not getting caught out in the middle of a temporary trade, but it seems to be a decent strategy. However, its application in the England game was hampered by the fact that 0-0 seemed to crash down from 11 to 9 from 7.55 to 8.05! (The .5 tick swings are usually particularly useful in building up 0-0). That and somewhat reduced in play liquidity could have had me regretting the decision to trade the market.

However, I didn’t get caught out by England’s goal, and with the game then staying 1-0 for 70 minutes, I was then in a position of looking at around a £1 profit or loss on 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 and 3-0 with much more healthy positions on the far out scorelines of 1-2, 2-1 and Any Unquoted although I did have an uncomfortable £30 red on all other scores. My current trading strategy is to avoid losses first and foremost, so any red always makes me slightly antsy, no matter how unlikely it seems.

Of course, Ukraine then grabbed an equaliser and I was then looking at 25p on 1-1, £30 on 2-1 or 1-2, and £10 on 1-3. (A very nice 50p back at 85)

Now, up until this week, I can pretty much guarantee that I would have traded out here for a reasonable £8 or so and left it at that. However, I decided to let it run, knowing the benefits that an extra goal could bring.

This is very much unlike how I have previously traded, but luck smiled on my side as a late England goal, allowed me to secure a £20 profit, whilst pretty much eliminating all red, and leaving an extra £10 or so on 2-2 and 3-1 in case of another goal.

More than anything however, what was a small win has given me a very large confidence boost, and shown me what can be achieved by letting bets run rather than laying off too quickly just to remove any red from the screen.

Maybe, I can do this. At least until the next time I make a mistake and have an equally disproportionate confidence loss!

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