Sunday, 3 May 2009


If there was one word to sum up yesterday's events, frustration would be the choice. Not that it was a bad day. £100 profit is definitely a sound return, but the whole day seemed to pass by in a flash.

The biggest problem was liquidity which was frankly mediocre for position takers and largely unworkable for market traders. I am primarily the latter which I use as the foundations for the former and I was definitely on shaky ground.

The Salford v Harlequins game was first up and I had taken, by my standards, a very large position on Salford before the game. This runs counter to my usual thinking, especially with so many questions about possible liquidity, but emboldened by last week's results, I thought that the value was too good to pass up.

And then Harlequins got an early try and a 1.01 train looked a possibility, but if 1.3 was value at 0-0, then 1.1s was great value at 6-0 with less than ten minutes gone, and further backing of Salford was proven appropriate as Salford replied.

I then possibly traded out too soon, wary of the large red, before Salford scored again and Quins could be backed around 1.5 and with the woeful liquidity, I reduced my red to a manageable amount whilst maintaining a decent sized green on Salford.

At the same time however, I was growing increasingly frustrated by the woeful amount of liquidity, with practically nothing being traded on the draw.

The second half was a tepid affair, before a fortuitous refereeing decision sealed the win for Harlequins by which time, I had traded out for a small green on Harlequins, pocketing just over £10. As much as I recognise that I tend to trade out far too early, and the perfect example of this was to follow, I certainly welcomed my approach at the end of the game.

The next game, Bradford v Wakefield, seemed a million miles away from the previous game in terms of liquidity, atmosphere and the speed of the game. I had thought before the game that this game would be close and therefore slightly favoured Wakefield on account of the odds, and I ended up backing Wakefield all the way down to 1.1 in the first half, although they did rise enough after their try to enable me to reduce the red on Bradford to a manageable level.

This game was the perfect example of the odds representing the score and not the game. Wakefield had three tries disallowed by the video referee, tries which had they been given, would have equalised the game, and therefore I continued to lay Bradford in the 1.0s.

For all their pressure in the second half, Wakefield could not seem to find a way to score, and their lack of incision was making my decision look questionable, when they quickly scored two tries to close the gap within four.

At this time, my tendency to trade out too soon raised its ugly head. Having removed any red on Bradford following the first try, I continued to lay the draw for small amounts at around 30, only for the draw to plunge under 10 at 20-16. I had built up £1,000 on the draw prior to this, and had frittered it away in order to merely achieve green, rather than taking account of the situation and taking value. In the end, I managed to come away with just under £40. Again, a sound result, but unlike the last game, this was substantially less than what I could, and should, have achieved.

The final game was Saints v Wigan. As a Saints fan, I expected them to win and thought that the 1.3s represented as good value to favourites as I have seen in recent weeks. Still, I prefer to lay the favourites, and in the high 1.2s thought that the value was with Wigan, although I have to admit that I thought there was little to no chance of them securing victory after 80 minutes.

However, Wigan produced a good performance against an awful Saints side, who must have believed their own comments about the Magic weekend, and did not bother to turn up.

Despite this, I largely managed to avoid getting on Wigan. I did get on them at certain times, and built up a decent green, but nowhere near the amount of green that I would usually expect to achieve on a side that start at higher than 5 and trade below 1.5 in the first half. Part of this was due to my own belief that Saints surely would not lose twice on the bounce and part was down to the very poor liquidity on the game. However, there did seem to be an abundance of liquidity on the draw, and again I had managed to build up a nice green on the draw.

At Half Time, I was astonished to see the draw trading as low as 17, and could have achieved an equal green of £80. Now this was value, but unlike the Bradford v Wakefield game, I disregarded this and hoped for a Saints comeback only for Wigan to score again within the first few minutes of the second half. This was a poor decision by me, and one that cost me, although I did manage to gain just over £50, representing a total win of over £100 on the day.

It says something that I look back with more than a tinge of disappointment despite winning £100. Mistakes and poor liquidity were the major factors and whilst £100 is definitely a good win, it is fair to say that I had hoped from more following 6 hours of Rugby League. Although having seen the markets in action yesterday, I would gladly take £100 if anyone offered that to me now for today's action.

As for today's games, I feel that Huddersfield and Leeds could produce 1.01 trains, whilst the other two games are too tight to call, although as per usual, the opening 10 minutes can very quickly eradicate pre match thoughts. I am just disappointed that what could be the best game trading wise, Hull v Castleford, will be hidden on the red button, away from my television and countless others' which will probably drop liquidity to an impossible level.

I have already commenced trading the matches before play, and will hope to transfer any green onto the draw before the match begins before hoping for underdogs to come good before the favourites come back to level the game up at the full time whistle. Well, that is what I am hoping for!

No comments:

Post a Comment