Friday, 5 February 2010

Even more furious

Last year I won the Rugby League Tipping Competition on the Rugby forum on Betfair and did so largely due to my belief that favourites are massively overpriced when at home. So, when the corrected Leeds v Castleford odds were settled today, I knew that this was a great opportunity. Castleford could be backed at 12.5 whereas I would make them somewhere between a 6 – 9 shot.

Irrespective of the initial stake placed, I then proceeded to do the one thing I had vowed not to do this year. Accept crazy odds to avoid red. So, from my initial pre match position, I managed to earn merely one third of my potential profit. That was beyond ridiculous and summed up tonight’s trading which once again saw my emotions take control of my brain. And of course, next time I look to back an away underdog and let it run, you can be as sure as anything, that it won’t come in. The worst of both worlds.

And in a twist of fate that is beyond ironic, I managed to cost myself £21 by getting the markets mixed up and backing Crusaders in their game. To the person who had left a lay of Crusaders up at 9.2, enjoy my money. You thoroughly deserve it. (That may sound sarcastic, but it is not intended to be.)

So I am in a position tonight whereby I am thoroughly annoyed with my trading performance, although pleased that I was able to call the Bradford v Huddersfield game rather successfully.

Before the game, I stated that I thought Huddersfield were too large. A position that is very uncommon for me as usually I think home favourites are backed too short. At one point Huddersfield were as low as 1.57 which was probably correct or maybe a bit low but drifting to 1.7 made them exceptional value and whilst I adopted a wait and see approach, I was able to profit from the return of the draw on LSD with 50 readily being available with the score at 0-0. Erm yeah. Good luck with that.

As you know my one big rule in first half trading is to oppose 1.1s and this strategy worked out very well tonight. However, I must say that I had expected Bradford to tire around this period but the Brett Hodgson mistake when attempting to score and the whistle of the referee gave Bradford renewed enthusiasm which saw them score two late tries in the first half to send the market out to 1.3.

At Half Time, I could have opted to take a level green of around £100 but instead opted to take around half this on Huddersfield, leaving £300 or so on Bradford. At 1.3 I considered Huddersfield marginally underpriced although their early scores brought them into a level which was not worth jumping on and so my position largely remained the same throughout the second half. Another ironic incident given my actions in the Leeds v Castleford game.

So all in all, a total profit of £100 from tonight’s work although I understandably feel that I am significantly behind on the “net scoreboard”. You only get so many gifts in a year and I feel I have wasted a couple this evening due to an abysmally constructed attitude towards trading.

In more positive news however, the markets felt the same as last year and I called the games well so I guess if that is to continue, then my trading performance should improve (this was after all the first “competitive” Super League Friday night of the year) so maybe I am being unduly harsh on myself. Truth is however, I always am!

I will want to watch the replay of the game after posting this but my initial thoughts are that the game went as expected. Huddersfield are a solid team who probably will offer the most consistent range of performances this year. Bradford are poor. They lack go forward. Their backs have very little pace and creativity and their Australian halfback pairing is disappointing. I expect Matt Orford to find his feet and play better as he becomes more comfortable, but Brett Kearney was every bit as poor as I expected. Maybe it is rust following a long lay off, but I don’t see anything in him at the moment which makes me think he can even be an upgrade from Ben Jeffries last year!

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s game (which hopefully I will trade better), I think the current market prices are right. The return of Sean Long is such a wild card but we know that Long produces his best performances in big games and there won’t be any bigger than this. I would probably favour Hull as like I am with Bradford, I am low on Saints who I feel have no organisational ability in the halves and a dearth of pace out wide although their forward pack looks impressive. Hull will take time to develop a comfort level with all their new signings, but it is hard to see them disappointing as greatly as they did last year. However, I would want to watch the opening to the game before making any predictions that I would need to rely on!

Time to go and calm down now and to work out how to improve on today for tomorrow. It is natural to make mistakes. It is just frustrating to make the same mistakes!


  1. A bit harsh on yourself Craig, better to look at the £100 say yeah it could have been more but more important is the fact that the markets were the same and you called the games right. Even a loss on first night would have been acceptable as long as you knew why, if all seems the same as last season that is surely far more comorting than any first night profit. You can go to the well as many times as you like but if there's no water........

    Judge your seasons performance not a single night, right now is light years removed from when the season is in full swing in the spring and summer, when conditions change so will teams performances, look ater the research and the observations, go with what your own eyes tell you and the trading will take care of itself

    But hey, i don't need to tell you all this you are the BF RL tipping guru and you've just trousered a ton. Well done mate, myself and plenty of others would be happy with that.

  2. Thanks for the comment mate.

    You are correct that it is good if I have spotted the same trends as repeating this year but the issue is that these trends are not very common. A 10/1 shot winning won't come about every week so it is very much an opportunity missed in that respect.

    Don't get me wrong, the profit is great but the "Net Scoreboard" (and this is something I use when watching a RL game and will expand on in another post) is currently negative for me and quite often it will equalise at some point.

    My initial stake size to profit is the issue. Even if I have a 10% edge in RL, the nature of the non in play markets is that when you lose, you will lose 100%, so if I only win 33% of my initial stake, you can see that eventually I will end up negative!!!

    But despite all this, I will probably be at or near the top of the Rugby forum tipping comp... I'm already on over 10 points profit for the season... So why doesn't my P and L reflect that! :(

    Once again, thanks for the comment. I can be unduly negative at times but it is greatly appreciated!