Saturday, 13 February 2010

Tough Going

For someone who backs outsiders, it is especially galling when an outsider wins and you haven’t backed it and that is exactly what happened when Crusaders defeated Salford last night. It also throws into question whether my “success” in assessing RL matches is more down to the general theory of backing the away underdog as opposed to assessing the teams.

I thought Salford would over achieve this season but after two games the pressure already seems to be on Shaun McRae. One look at the Salford side shows that they are a young and inexperienced side and you have to wonder whether this is the main reason for their struggles. The return of Mark Henry and Willie Talau may help the Reds, and let’s not forget that Salford had a similarly poor start last year before going on to defeat Saints and Leeds but the Reds already look to be rivalling Crusaders for the Wooden spoon, although I would think that the real value would lie in Harlequins who have looked equally as poor but are almost three times as long!

I also managed to get the other two games wrong. Hull defeated Huddersfield in a game that I considered to be a coin toss although the injury to Brett Hodgson did give Hull the advantage although at 2/1, Huddersfield still seem overpriced to me despite the eventual result. Also peculiar was the draw which usually trades in the mid 20s for non in play games but reached 40 before kick off which I also thought represented value despite not coming in.

Of greater concern was the Wigan v Hull KR match. Not because I thought that the value lied with Hull KR (As per any SKY game, I believe the real value comes in play and so use minimal stakes pre match and increase during the game – the 1.1 rule came in handy here) but because of the way the markets operated in play.

As per any in play event, you will encounter fast picture people but in the past, they have usually left “value” prices at non try events such as knock ons, penalties etc… However, I found myself knowing what would happen before seeing it because the market seemed incredibly ahead of my television which is making the markets impossible to trade in my usual manner.

However, the markets do seem unusually thin during the games at the moment so maybe the problem is not that the fast picture people are spreading their net wider, but that there are less traders taking a position. Either way, as long as the markets continue like this, then it is effecting my trading as I usually like to trade cautiously before imposing my position on my book whereas at the moment, I am having to do the latter first.

Maybe I shall have to display more confidence in my initial positions!

So on to tonight’s game and last night re-inforced my thoughts that it is hard to establish accurate opinions at ths stage without seeing the teams in action so far this season.

However, both Warrington and Castleford are fairly settled from their 2009 squads and I do feel that the maket might be overreacting to Castleford’s impressive win last week and home advantage. However, whilst I do think Tony Smith has removed Warrington’s inconsistency, I still cannot bring myself to fully recommend them at 1.5! Nonetheless, the value should emerge in play although if it is anything like last Saturday’s game, you may struggle to get matched. Here’s hoping to increased liquidity going forward!


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