Saturday, 28 February 2009

Round 3

If this isn’t a game of luck, it is a game of confidence but the two are so closely knitted together that when you get one, the other one follows.

Take tonight. After 65 minutes, I was a healthy £25 on Wigan v Harlequins, with a treble figure green on the draw and hoping for the best. Harlequins kicked a 40/20 and I re-arranged my green, hoping for a try. One followed, and then so did another. Within the space of a few minutes, I am looking at £80. £55 for watching the game that I love for 10 minutes. I then place some green on Wigan, knowing the benefits that one try would bring. (6.8 for a team trailing by 4 is too large). Amos Roberts intercepts a pass, and I trust the speedster to bring it home. He does, and I am at my largest win of the season, and my second largest win ever on Betfair.

It hardly matters that I screwed up on the draw. It hardly matters that I threw away some profit. What matters is that through some luck, some confidence and the appearance of money that had previously been vacant (horribly low liquidity as presumably people fell asleep watching the 6 Nations), it worked out all right in the end.

And that was key. Going into this week, it would be fair to say my confidence was approaching rock bottom. Now, it is not sky high, but it is high enough to enter a new month as a fresh start and to try new things with the profit built up from this month. (More on that, tomorrow.)

And all this from a weekend, where I genuinely could not call the SKY games. (I guessed Warrington and Wigan victories on paper, only.) On a weekend where my general trading seemed to be the worst of the year, and on a weekend where my only really successful thought (Saints would struggle at home to Hull KR) was one I ignored.

Anyway, for those of you who are sick of the fact that this blog has become little more than a monologue on Rugby League, I will hope to correct that from tomorrow, and I can tell you that I did manage to win £5 from Everton v West Brom.

Back to the Rugby League, and a quick overview from last night’s game. Thankfully, I caught onto Wakefield’s fast start, largely thanks to a good tip, and was able to build up a massive green on the draw which looked very appealing when Warrington started to come back. Sadly, it did not last, and surely it cannot be long until Warrington realise that whilst it is not all his fault, James Lowes is in over his head. Back to the game, and my utter amazement of the Half Time Odds (Warrington were 1.2 last week with a 6 point lead; Warrington were 1.25 with a 20 point lead this week???) enabled me to make a small profit. Not bad considering I had been without the internet all week!

Tomorrow sees the World Club Challenge, and I can honestly say that I have no pre-match opinion, other than to wait and watch before getting involved. I am not up to date on matters NRL, although I expect there to be several good trading opportunities, and it will be good to see Jamie Lyon back, playing in England. (Hopefully, he’ll be back for good soon, if rumours can be believed – although I would suggest they are, at best, doubtful.)

Anyway, that’s it for tonight. I’ll be back tomorrow with a comprehensive review of the month, and an ambitious plan for the next month.

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