Friday, 15 January 2010

How accurate can gut feelings be

One thing I have noticed recently is the correctness of my “gut feeling”. So many times recently, I have thought something may happen and it has both in trading and in my personal life. When I wrote my last blog entry, I commented that a loss was surely just around the corner. Little did I know how close.

Ipswich v Leicester. 32 seconds gone. Goal. What made this particularly disappointing was that when I had turned to the Correct Score market, I placed a back bet pre play of £100 at 11.5 which was the current lay odds at 11.5. In most games recently, the 0-0 price has collapsed so I wasn’t confident of getting matched, but not only did I get matched, but the market edged out to 12 so I placed another £100 expecting to be able to lay off at 11.5 within the first 90 seconds or so. The match kicked off and as expected, the initial back price was 11.5, so I put in a £200 lay and then saw the ball appear to crawl over the line in slow motion.

I very rarely have £100 liability in play, but had used my maximum limit of £200 and it was all gone. Still, I wouldn’t have done anything any differently. That’s the game I play.

The end result was a £166.11 loss, although that was slightly offset by earnings of just over £20 on Hamilton v Rangers and Real Madrid v Mallorca.

The evening saw the return of Dancing On Ice on ITV. Now, I dislike most reality shows, but I actually quite enjoy reality shows on ITV. I can’t explain what the difference is – I suppose the X Factor and Britain’s Got Talent contain an element of ordinary people realising their dreams, but I can’t explain the appeal of Z list celebrities on ice. However, I do enjoy it.

I did not, however, enjoy my result on the market which lead me to lose £86.48 despite correctly calling Sharron Davies to be Bottom two after her performance. How? Well, I was around £10 green at various points but continued to trade most acts although the liquidity was very poor. And then, just as the show came on, the price on Davies and Sinitta suddenly shortened, whilst the price on Emily Atack and Tana Ramsey suddenly lengthened. Anyone who had followed the X Factor would not have been too concerned by this as it seemed that the late drifts were always wrong so I remained unconcerned, expecting the market to either swing back my way or for the insiders to be proved wrong.

However, the market immediately suspended when the show opened and immediately closed the lines. I had expected a further ten minutes of waffle, and had been wrong which was my major mistake. And then, the late market movements were proved accurate and I was looking at a very, very red book thanks to a set of ridiculous mistakes which had betrayed my cautious but successful approach so far this year.

The evening ended slightly better (or rather the morning began well) when Arizona Cardinals advanced in the NFL playoffs. At 31-10, I was happy enough that they would hold on for the win, and decided to go to bed as I was up at 5.30 for work. Before doing so, knowing what the Cards are like, I placed a small insurance bet on Green Bay at 21. Anyway, the Packers then scored two consecutive TDs and the game was tied at 38 with the Cards having the ball with time running out. Thanks to some small trades, I had around £170 on Green Bay and £40 on Arizona when Neil Rackers attempted a possible game winning Field Goal. After umming and aahing, I was going to go with my gut that Rackers would miss, and was about to lay Arizona when he missed.

I then didn’t look to even up my book (any other time I would have, but I usually lay any sports teams that I follow) and a great play by the Arizona D won the game, reducing my profit but allowing my team to advance in the playoffs. Although it will all count for nothing if they lose against New Orleans! And I also was incredibly tired when I woke up the next morning at 5.30 after only getting to sleep at 1.30!

So after a good start to the weekend, the ending wasn’t quite so great and this week hasn’t been too great either. I have previously promised plenty of posts on RL trading before the season starts but unfortunately some of the personal issues which I have previously referred to have re-appeared which also explains the lack of blog posts this week. There is nothing unduly serious about these issues but when they do crop up, I lack the ability to write blog posts or contribute on the forums.

Usually, when they do crop up, I like to immerse myself in trading as a distraction, but I couldn’t even be bothered for that in the middle of this week, losing £3 on Coventry v Portsmouth and winning nearly £2 on Liverpool v Reading. Games which I looked to trade, but couldn’t be bothered with. However, I did sandwich them with some good trades as I made close to £45 on Man City v Blackburn and £35 on Blackburn v Aston Villa, largely through my usual tactics.

Finally, I also managed to earn just over £10 from tonight’s Rugby Union between Ulster and Edinburgh as I simply transferred some of my usual RL trading skills across whilst trading the market before kick off and in the last twenty or so minutes.

Hopefully, I’ll be back soon with more posts but if I don’t manage to make a post for a few days, I wish everyone has a good weekend.


  1. Thanks Craig, good read as usual.

    Been trading the Rugby Union ala TRM method and it's going quite well so far (famous last words)


  2. Hi, just want to share my opinion regarding your post "How accurate can gut feelings be" - i think its more accurate than one's first and initial viewpoint, because based from my own experience, i always end-up saying "I KNEW IT RIGHT FROM THE START"..