Saturday, 30 January 2010

Risk

Risk is usually defined as “exposure to the chance of injury and loss”. Life is full of risks and part of our operation as human beings is to calculate the possibility of risk and act accordingly. Everything that we do is risky. Even sat here right now, typing these words, I leave myself open to risk, from the possibility that I could sprain a finger from typing to the possibility that my heart stops beating.

It hasn’t… Yet.

A successful trader, like a successful human, weighs up the risk involved in a situation before making a decision and acts accordingly. Of course, calculating risk is no guarantee of success in anything; there are always several other decisions and skills that you require to be successful, but calculating risk is an especially important trait which traders require.

My problem is not calculating risk. It is leaving myself open to it and then acting under these circumstances. (Something which probably applies in all facets of my life, but let’s not stray too far off topic here!)

I remember an early post from 2009 when I calculated my potential profit if I had stuck to what my original plan for the 2009 Super League season and compared it to the meagre success I had. I am definitely a “glass empty” person. In fact, it’s not even half empty… It’s just empty!

I am reminded of all this as I sit here now because, as per usual, I ran away from risk again today for no reason other than, well I don’t know!

All week, I had expressed surprise at the odds between Wakefield v Harlequins. I have plenty of anecdotal evidence that proves that my thoughts are not just lucky guesses but rather possibly indicative of an ability to succeed when calling games. Yet, when the time to roll the dice came, I recoiled and found reasons to doubt my initial viewpoint.

4 comments:

  1. So you didnt lump on Wakey then??? Me neither, was wishing i had when i saw the result...


    Smudger

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  2. Easy to say aferwards. Maybe my most recent post might explain why I was kicking myself afterwards!!!

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  3. I think doubting our own initial viewpoint is normal and what usually happens to those people who are not self-centered and for me that is a positive trait of an individual..

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