Monday, 5 January 2009

Back to the Start

Miami v Baltimore.

I really only made one trade on this game, namely opposing Baltimore at the start halfway through their first half drive, which worked out reasonably well given that LeRon McClain went onto fumble. I found the game quite difficult to read initially. Whilst it was obvious that the Dolphins could attack the Ravens with small passes, they didn’t seem to want to and insisted on trying to establish the ground game in vain.

Any profit then evaporated when I firstly shifted all my green onto Miami who seemed way too low at 1.33, only for Chad Pennington to let me down, and I ended up with a red on Miami, when I then further laid Baltimore who I thought were a ridiculous price at 1.2 given that the Dolphins would start with the ball in the second half. However, it didn’t quite work and I could not bring myself to trade out at a loss, as their price always seemed too low. Maybe I just underestimated the Baltimore defence.

Minnesota v Philadelphia.

I made a couple more trades in this game and like in the Miami green, had got myself in a reasonable green position, only for my general strategy of opposing Philadelphia to blow up when Brian Westbrook turned up and like in the above game, the price afterwards was simply too low to trade out of and so I ran up a loss, which took me back to where I was at the start!


I looked over the trades I had made on NFL over the last three months and reached at what now appears to be an obvious truth. Namely that my success has come from backing the underdog. Now, this was my first weekend at trying to seriously trade the televised games, and looking back at all four games, I actually had an equal green on both teams in the first half at some point, only to back the underdog in all 4 games in the Second Half.

Now, my trading style is an attempt to recognise value , which is why it works so well in the first half primarily. I am adept at spotting when a price is too low and pretty adept at reading the game. The problem comes that whilst value is fine, in the second half, results matter and it therefore doesn’t matter if the underdog is 100/1. If they lose, you lose.

I realise that I am still a comparative rookie to trading and therefore am not bothered by my overall profit and loss record at this moment and feel like I traded better on Sunday than on Saturday. However, I was still too jumpy and made fundamental errors. I need to e to have more confidence in letting them run, which I knew prior to starting the blog was undoubtedly the biggest area for improvement, although I appear to have made no progress despite making actual attempts to – and stake size is not the issue, I am as keen to lock in a profit using £2 stakes as £100 ones, and I’m not sure why.

The other key is to recognise areas of strength and weakness and build on that, and I feel I can do this. Maybe it is a good thing that I restricted my stake sizes this weekend, although whether I would have “gambled” so much with a significant green, which I could have achieved early on had I used larger stake sizes, is another topic.


Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Profit/loss(£)
Baltimore Ravens 1.62 47.00 Back 29.15
Baltimore Ravens 1.47 70.75 Lay -33.15

Transactions: 9

Net Market Total: -£4.00

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Profit/loss(£)
Philadelphia Eagles 1.48 134.00 Back 64.64
Philadelphia Eagles 1.47 142.50 Lay -67.20

Transactions: 31

Net Market Total: -£2.56

Total Result: -£6.56

Next Update.

Hopefully sometime this week. None of the main sports I trade on are active through this week, and I am not convinced by my 0 – 0 strategy in Cup games. I initially avoided the Blackburn v Blyth game, although did place a small amount just prior to Half Time to lock in a very small profit depending upon the final score.

1 comment:

  1. Hi there, I suppose you must be pissed off with Betfair, their charges and customer service and the general lack of competition in betting exchanges. I developed a website: we have a couple of members already even though the site is on for a couple of hours.

    Check it out and please do sign in. It would be awesome if you could write something about the website on your blog and try to motivate people to sign in and take part in our experiment. Tell it to people you know as well. I know the website will not do a miracle but anyway it will raise awareness of Betdaq and that something is happening there. Plus it will show to Betfair that there is some resistance and this may make them think twice before any new scams.
    You can leave your blog name in the Name section of the “create an account” and I will post a link to your blog next to your name on the list. If you have any comments, suggestions, want to contribute an article please write to: