Sunday, 4 January 2009

Missed opportunities

NFL Playoffs - Wildcard Saturday.

If I had to sum up last night’s trading, it would be one of missed opportunities. I had hoped to be bolder but that quickly went down the pan. I have very quickly drawn up a brief review of last night before I get ready for tonight’s games, so please excuse any grammatical errors!

Arizona v Atlanta.

Well at least the Cardinals won in their first home playoff game since 1947. It started badly when I laid the Cards, who had opened at 2.2!, at 1.9 upon hearing that Travis LaBoy was out, and reached my maximum liability for taking in play with a further lay at 1.86, and whilst the price did not increase before the start which left me surprised, I traded out after the Cards went 3 and out and was a reasonable green on both sides for a game which had been in progress for less than a minute!

However, like the Falcons, I was unprepared and caught surprised by the general situation and for some reason started using very small stakes only. Despite the game starting in a fashion I had roughly predicted, (Gabe Watson was instrumental in the Cards’ run D, whilst Lawyer Milloy was routinely exposed.) I had seemed to lose all confidence to trade and ended up watching the game flip flop on Betfair whilst cheering the Cardinals onto victory in a second half performance which was as atypical Cards as it gets.

My expectations as a Cardinals fan of the Cards’ breaking down didn’t match the way they were playing, although my emotions ruled my brain on the way to an eventual £2 loss (Not helped by laying instead of backing the Cards at one point in the second half and not realising for 5 minutes!), and by the end of the game I was trading like a complete novice, and making some strange decisions.

San Diego v Indianapolis.

After missing the Indianapolis train in the middle of the afternoon, I was annoyed that the Colts started at 1.8 and after the mess of the Arizona game where, despite the end result, I traded very poorly, I struggled to get into this game. Using very small stakes, I basically backed the offenses and ended up with £3 green on each team when I realised that part of my poor trading was because I was knackered and so went to bed.

Before I did however, I moved my green onto San Diego and this is why I love trading and hate pure betting. You are not bound by earlier thoughts and are able to take advantage of prices. Now, the game had been fairly even so far, and the Colts were 7 – 0 up at this time. In these situations, I fail to understand why the Colts are 30 ticks lower with the Chargers having the ball. Maybe 5 – 10 ticks, but not 30! Therefore, whilst I thought on balance the Colts would win, their price made them a lay and I traded my green to San Diego.

I actually woke up for Overtime and was looking to equalise my green, but at all stages, I agreed with the market and therefore just left my green with San Diego as Peyton Manning was once again denied in the playoffs. (I didn’t watch all of the game, but it sure seemed like the Officials were very strict. You can’t argue with any of the calls, but in a usual game, at least one of the three OT calls won’t be made.)


On a scale of 1 – 10, yesterday’s performance barely gets a 2. I lost my nerve, opposed my thoughts on several occasions, and tried to force things that weren’t there. The net scoreboard sure isn’t looking pretty at the moment!


Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Profit/loss(£)
Arizona Cardinals 1.56 110.21 Back 61.48
Arizona Cardinals 1.48 145.17 Lay -70.32
Atlanta Falcons 2.59 10.87 Back -10.87
Atlanta Falcons 2.96 17.71 Lay 17.71

Transactions: 44

Net Market Total: -£2.00

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Profit/loss(£)
Indianapolis Colts 1.78 145.45 Back -145.45
Indianapolis Colts 1.75 123.00 Lay 123.00
San Diego Chargers 2.29 70.63 Back 91.26
San Diego Chargers 2.24 50.00 Lay -61.80

Transactions: 23

Net Market Total: £6.66

Total Result: £4.66

Next Update.

With travelling back to Leeds, and talking to my housemate upon my return, I have ignored today’s football, which was not that appealing in any case! I am looking to trade tonight’s NFL games and will therefore aim to post an update tomorrow. The irony is that I know much, much less about the two games tonight than I knew about the two games yesterday (but I do think that Baltimore and their rookie Division I-AA QB are ridiculously short against the Miami Dolphins, who whilst possessing inferior talent have a veteran QB), although I will aim to use reasonable stake sizes and hope that I can read the games on the fly.


  1. You are too hard on yourself....

    The main thing is you didn't make a loss, and actually ended up with a small profit.
    Thats a good day in my book!!

    Remember its easy to trade with hindsight!!!

    Gutted about the Colts...denied by SD again :(

  2. Thanks for the comment, mate.

    You are right about being too harsh and trading with hindsight, but there just seemed to be so many moments when I did something stupid which really annoyed me.

    Still, I feel I improved on that on Sunday despite losing!

    It's ridiculous how much the Colts struggle in the Postseason, and I can't understand it. They just didn't seem to get any breaks in OT.

    Otherwise, I hope things are going well for you.